ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[invest man]

If another low forms out of the mess south of Cuba, will this move NNE like 16 along this frontal area or will it sit and fester and if it does move anyone know of a time frame this will get out? IM

[HURAKAN]

Based on the surface observations, it would make more sense if the center was south of Cuba

[Recurve]

Plot of wind, gust and pressure off Upper Keys:

[chargurl]

I'm just an observer but, IMHO the area that's allegedly supposed to b the storm, looks the same as it did yesterday! Has it moved even? Its even nicer looking out at my house today!

[Vortex]

Early monring vis coming sure looks like the center is becoming better defined just south of central cuba..

[HURAKAN]

Early monring vis coming sure looks like the center is becoming better defined just south of central cuba..

I agree 100%



If RECON found 33 knots at the surface in the strait, I would guess that 35+ knots could exist in the deep convection just south of Cuba

[xironman]

That area right on the south Cuban shore does look good, much more in line with obs. But like 57 said you are not going to see a classic center or core with this thing.

[cycloneye]

But,they say otherwise at the 8 AM Advisory.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MAY
BE BECOMING LESS WELL DEFINED AND HAS BEEN RELOCATED OVER CENTRAL
CUBA. AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4
WEST.

[HURAKAN]

Cayo Largo, just south of Cuba, reporting 995 mb

[Dave C]

that possible new center has some pretty decent feeder bands to work with!

[Vortex]

I think with visible and surface obs a relocation just south of cuba looks to be in the works...if so, looks more like what I would expect...

[xironman]

Relocating the center further south makes sense, about 50 miles south of the 2am position.

[boca]

I had an unofficial wind gust to 7mph while I had a leaf laying in my hand and didn't fly away.

[HURAKAN]

If the center is where we think it's, then the system doesn't look that bad!

[HURAKAN]

Almost 3 inches of rain in parts of Miami-Dade and Broward in the last 24 hours

[jlauderdal]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/tel_old.gif

Almost 3 inches of rain in parts of Miami-Dade and Broward in the last 24 hours

1.1 at my house since midnight

[HURAKAN]

Cayo Largo, Cuba, now reporting NW winds, indicating that the center is to its east

[HURAKAN]

1.1 at my house since midnight

1.67 since yesterday

[Vortmax1]

Wet! It is wet here and getting wetter this morning.
Real close to 3.5 inches here. It's a steady drizzle and soaking right in with brief periods of heavier rain.
Just what we needed as it has been very dry here throughout the wet season.

[ColinDelia]

As broad as can be. Marathon and Key West are only 2 mb higher than the minimum central pressure over central Cuba given by the NHC