ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

getting some rotation signatures on gr3 the last hour, be interesting to see how that pans out for severe weather

[alan1961]

Cuba radar

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Vortmax1]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE FL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291100Z - 291330Z

TORNADO POTENTIAL...THOUGH BRIEF/MRGL AT FIRST...MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT
NEAR-COAST AREAS FROM UPPER KEYS TO PALM BEACH COUNTY DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS...SLOWLY SHIFTING INLAND TO INCLUDE METRO CORRIDOR FROM
HST-PBI.

MIA VWP HODOGRAPHS HAVE BEEN SMALL...BUT STEADILY INCREASING IN SIZE
AND IN CURVATURE DURING PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS CENTER OF TD 16
BEGAN CROSSING FL STRAITS BETWEEN CUBA AND KEYS. WEAKER HODOGRAPHS
HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN OBSERVED VWP AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS WITH WWD
EXTENT THROUGH KEYS...CONCURRENT WITH MORE NEBULOUS/WEAKER
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. THIS TENDENCY SHOULD CONTINUE...REDUCING
TORNADO THREAT FROM N THROUGH NW OF CENTER. FURTHER STRENGTHENING
OF BOUNDARY-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED NE OF CENTER ALONG SERN FL COAST
AND UPPER KEYS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY OVER ERN
SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IF IT BUILDS TO TS STRENGTH PER
NHC FCSTS. OVERNIGHT RADAR DATA HAVE SHOWN OCNL TSTM-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS OFFSHORE WITH MOST PERSISTENT/DEEPEST ECHOES...ALSO
INDICATING THAT GREATER SRH IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE. SO IS GREATEST
BUOYANCY...MLCAPE ESTIMATED 1000-1500 J/KG OVER WATER...OWING TO
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED THETAE THAT IS RELATED TO MARINE HEAT FLUXES
OFF GULF STREAM. STRENGTHENING SELY SFC WINDS WOULD ADVECT MORE OF
THIS AIR MASS AT LEAST A FEW MILES INLAND...PERHAPS ACROSS MUCH OF
MIAMI-DADE/BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTIES WITH TIME. MEANWHILE 0-1 KM
SRH 150-200 J/KG SHOULD OVERSPREAD GREATER MERIDIONAL EXTENT OF
COASTLINE AS FLOW JUST OFF SFC INTENSIFIES.

..EDWARDS.. 09/29/2010

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL, 16, 2010092912, , BEST, 0, 224N, 810W, 30, 996, TD

That's too far north

[canes04]

Agree Hurakan, I'm watching the area around 21 & 81.
The shear may let up enough for this to get going later today.

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al162010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009291239
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
SIXTEEN, AL, L, , , , , 16, 2010, TD, O, 2010092718, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL162010
AL, 16, 2010092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 855W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 16, 2010092718, , BEST, 0, 190N, 847W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092800, , BEST, 0, 194N, 841W, 25, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092806, , BEST, 0, 198N, 835W, 30, 1003, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 16, 2010092812, , BEST, 0, 204N, 830W, 30, 1001, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 360, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092818, , BEST, 0, 212N, 826W, 30, 1000, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1005, 375, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092900, , BEST, 0, 215N, 821W, 30, 997, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1003, 375, 180, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092906, , BEST, 0, 217N, 815W, 30, 997, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1003, 375, 150, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,
AL, 16, 2010092912, , BEST, 0, 219N, 809W, 30, 996, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1003, 360, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, D,


That makes more sense!!

[Category 5]

12z

AL, 16, 2010092912, , BEST, 0, 224N, 810W, 30, 996, TD

That's too far north

No doubt, I'm keyed in on a little spin south of Cuba right now, I see no sign of a circulation that far north.

[HURAKAN]

There you go!

[Evil Jeremy]

What does this center reformation mean for South Florida?

[GCANE]

Threat for tornadoes could rotate into SE FL later today.







MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1904
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE FL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291100Z - 291330Z

TORNADO POTENTIAL...THOUGH BRIEF/MRGL AT FIRST...MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT
NEAR-COAST AREAS FROM UPPER KEYS TO PALM BEACH COUNTY DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS...SLOWLY SHIFTING INLAND TO INCLUDE METRO CORRIDOR FROM
HST-PBI.

MIA VWP HODOGRAPHS HAVE BEEN SMALL...BUT STEADILY INCREASING IN SIZE
AND IN CURVATURE DURING PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS CENTER OF TD 16
BEGAN CROSSING FL STRAITS BETWEEN CUBA AND KEYS. WEAKER HODOGRAPHS
HAVE BEEN EVIDENT IN OBSERVED VWP AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS WITH WWD
EXTENT THROUGH KEYS...CONCURRENT WITH MORE NEBULOUS/WEAKER
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. THIS TENDENCY SHOULD CONTINUE...REDUCING
TORNADO THREAT FROM N THROUGH NW OF CENTER. FURTHER STRENGTHENING
OF BOUNDARY-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED NE OF CENTER ALONG SERN FL COAST
AND UPPER KEYS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY OVER ERN
SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IF IT BUILDS TO TS STRENGTH PER
NHC FCSTS. OVERNIGHT RADAR DATA HAVE SHOWN OCNL TSTM-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS OFFSHORE WITH MOST PERSISTENT/DEEPEST ECHOES...ALSO
INDICATING THAT GREATER SRH IS IN PLACE OFFSHORE. SO IS GREATEST
BUOYANCY...MLCAPE ESTIMATED 1000-1500 J/KG OVER WATER...OWING TO
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED THETAE THAT IS RELATED TO MARINE HEAT FLUXES
OFF GULF STREAM. STRENGTHENING SELY SFC WINDS WOULD ADVECT MORE OF
THIS AIR MASS AT LEAST A FEW MILES INLAND...PERHAPS ACROSS MUCH OF
MIAMI-DADE/BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTIES WITH TIME. MEANWHILE 0-1 KM
SRH 150-200 J/KG SHOULD OVERSPREAD GREATER MERIDIONAL EXTENT OF
COASTLINE AS FLOW JUST OFF SFC INTENSIFIES.

..EDWARDS.. 09/29/2010

[Category 5]

http://img261.imageshack.us/img261/8767/21967261.jpg

There you go!

That's more like it.

[caneman]

I personally don't see anything other than some rain affecting Florida with the front draped across us unless of course it lifts out. Is that a ULL developing off SW Florida coast? Seems like all the activity will continue to get pushed North and East. Would like to here a Mets take on this.

[jhpigott]

What does this center reformation mean for South Florida?

I would think that would mean unless it travels due north from that position it would probably travel just off the SE coast of FL and keep most of the bad weather over the Atlantic and Bahamas

[canes04]

I would still go a little south, around 21N.

[HURAKAN]

RECON just left, center probably will be inland by the time it reaches it

[wxman57]

I had an unofficial wind gust to 7mph while I had a leaf laying in my hand and didn't fly away.

Stay safe there, boca. I expect you'll see even stronger wind there by this afternoon as the low passes by.

Again, I wouldn't be too concerned about where the "center" is, just watch the satellite and radar for heavy thunderstorms as the low passes by. Any TS winds will probably be east of Florida out over the Bahamas due to the pressure gradient between the low and the Bermuda High. The cold front is now in the NW Caribbean, and it's not far west of the depression.

[CronkPSU]

RECON just left, center probably will be inland by the time it reaches it

maybe i missed it but were they given permission from Cuba to fly over their airspace?

[Evil Jeremy]

RECON just left, center probably will be inland by the time it reaches it

Inland Cuba or inland Florida?

[HURAKAN]

RECON just left, center probably will be inland by the time it reaches it

maybe i missed it but were they given permission from Cuba to fly over their airspace?

Yesterday they flew around and in today's 1st mission they stayed away from the Cuban coast. I don't think they have permission to fly over Cuba. I only remember one exception and that was during Hurricane Ivan.