NEXRAD wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
It's interesting to note that the upstream flow is backing more to a southerly flow with the influence of the trough starting to lessen in terms of a W to E dry air intrusion. You can tell by checking out how the low-mid level steering winds have shifted to a more Sly direction early today. Even more obvious is the KMLB and KJAX radars showing precipitation generally north of and offshore Cape Canaveral starting to build west. Meanwhile, there's not been much Eward progression for the western back-edge of the light to moderate rain across Southeast Florida. As the system wraps up today, this should foster a sharp precipitation boundary across Florida, with areas east of a line from about Everglades City to Lake Okeechobbee to perhaps Daytona Beach being under the threat for some heavy rainfall and squally conditions.
The RUC and local WRF models also suggest that the depression might wrap-up midday. These models have been very persistent over the last 12 hours or so in showing surface winds reaching 20 to 30 knots along the SE Florida metros this afternoon with higher gusts in intense convective bands (which these models have also been persistent with).
Based on the steering flow and Theta-E patterns, the system's surface low should track close to the TPC track. I'd not write TD16 off just yet. The latest satellite patterns are becoming interesting, and then the FL Straits have some very warm water. Recall, too, that 1999's Irene ramped-up quickly in this same region with a similar frontal boundary set-up - and Irene developed from a similar broad NW Caribbean low.
- Jay
South Florida
Interesting. Jay and wxman57 seem to have different lines of thought. Wx seems to write this event off for Florida as just a rain event and Jay leaves the door open for some nastier weather.
