ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

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Kyuuubi
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1001 Postby Kyuuubi » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:00 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:TS warnings for SFL are canceled.

Yup..... looks like other than rain, a relative non-event unless things change significantly
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1002 Postby canes04 » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:03 am

I wish recon would fly south of Cuba, still think there is something going on there.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1003 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:04 am

Man,

I do not like to criticize the NHC but this looks like a bad upgrade to me. Upgrading a sloppy system while the center is over land. One for the books, increase that count. :( Yea, you won't find me saying that very often.
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#1004 Postby invest man » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:05 am

Extratropical system forming off the fl coast later today. How will this effect enc, already getting massive rainfall, last thing we need are 40+ winds! IM
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1005 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:05 am

tolakram wrote:Man,

I do not like to criticize the NHC but this looks like a bad upgrade to me. Upgrading a sloppy system while the center is over land. One for the books, increase that count. :( Yea, you won't find me saying that very often.


ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS OF
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.


You need more? Enough for me.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1006 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:09 am

996 = TS
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1007 Postby Hurricanehink » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:10 am

canes04 wrote:I wish recon would fly south of Cuba, still think there is something going on there.


I've been thinking that since last night. It really looks like something is going on near the Caymans. I think someone mentioned earlier that the "Nicole" low has a trough going southward to the western Caribbean. If that were to become the dominant system, would that be Otto? I can't imagine they would consider Nicole reforming that far south.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1008 Postby TheEuropean » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:12 am

Sanibel wrote:996 = TS


Why that?
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#1009 Postby artist » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:12 am

ok, so they cancel the tropical storm warnings yet they upgrade to Tropical Storm Nicole? There is something wrong with this picture. Am I right? :double:
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1010 Postby petit_bois » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:12 am

Hurricanehink wrote:
canes04 wrote:I wish recon would fly south of Cuba, still think there is something going on there.


I've been thinking that since last night. It really looks like something is going on near the Caymans. I think someone mentioned earlier that the "Nicole" low has a trough going southward to the western Caribbean. If that were to become the dominant system, would that be Otto? I can't imagine they would consider Nicole reforming that far south.


There are bouys and surface obs scattered over the entire area...
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Re:

#1011 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:13 am

artist wrote:ok, so they cancel the tropical storm warnings yet they upgrade to Tropical Storm Nicole? There is something wrong with this picture. Am I right? :double:


Its because Nicole is forecast to past to the east of us, and all the winds are on her east side.
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Re:

#1012 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:14 am

artist wrote:ok, so they cancel the tropical storm warnings yet they upgrade to Tropical Storm Nicole? There is something wrong with this picture. Am I right? :double:


Everything is to the east of the center. Track shifted a little to the east, therefore, all the wind should stay east of Florida.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1013 Postby petit_bois » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:17 am

Sanibel wrote:996 = TS


nope... >39 mph sustained winds = TS

and the weird part was thaey had to go well over 200 miles south of the center to find those...
most of the readings within 60 miles of the center we 5-10 knots.
Last edited by petit_bois on Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1014 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:18 am

tolakram wrote:Man,

I do not like to criticize the NHC but this looks like a bad upgrade to me. Upgrading a sloppy system while the center is over land. One for the books, increase that count. :( Yea, you won't find me saying that very often.



Email them. nhc.public.affairs@noaa.gov
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1015 Postby Bear » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:21 am

Like I said earlier....IMO....non-event..... A little rain and minor street flooding that any seasoned S. Floridian can handle....Next!
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1016 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:21 am

petit_bois wrote:
Sanibel wrote:996 = TS


nope... >39 mph sustained winds = TS

and the weird part was thaey had to go well over 200 miles south of the center to find those...
most of the readings within 60 miles of the center we 5-10 knots.


Last time I looked up tropical systems with wind fields greater away from the center were subtropical. Either it is Tropical, warm core, with convection wrapping around the center, strongest winds near the center or they're not. This area is such a mess I don't know what to call it.
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#1017 Postby HenkL » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:23 am

Some peak winds at 15Z:

Holguin (eastern Cuba): 34 kt
Guantanamo Bay (eastern Cuba): 26 kt
Nassau Airport (Bahamas): 41 kt
George Town (Bahamas): 27 kt
ship at 16°48'N 81°30'W: 35 kt
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1018 Postby jhpigott » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:37 am

They drop the TS warnings for SE FL and this thread goes quiet??
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1019 Postby sandyb » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:38 am

Bear wrote:Like I said earlier....IMO....non-event..... A little rain and minor street flooding that any seasoned S. Floridian can handle....Next!



just becasue Florida is not gonna get any major weather dont mean its all over forget it not important...come up to NC we have had over 8 inches of rain with 4-10 more to come its pooring outside right now blowing sideways at that we could have some major flooding and trees down up here but oh its ok cause it is not happening to Florida! Why do most of yall think when it dont involve your state it is a non event
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1020 Postby Canelaw99 » Wed Sep 29, 2010 10:44 am

sandyb wrote:
Bear wrote:Like I said earlier....IMO....non-event..... A little rain and minor street flooding that any seasoned S. Floridian can handle....Next!



just becasue Florida is not gonna get any major weather dont mean its all over forget it not important...come up to NC we have had over 8 inches of rain with 4-10 more to come its pooring outside right now blowing sideways at that we could have some major flooding and trees down up here but oh its ok cause it is not happening to Florida! Why do most of yall think when it dont involve your state it is a non event


I don't think that was implied in Bear's post at all. Most of us are much more concerned when something is directly affecting us, it's human nature. Just posing a question for you to think about, not trying to start anything, but if this was forecast to avoid NC completely, would you be so upset? Probably not. All of us can be sympathetic for what others might face/might be going through, but there's no need to get fiesty over a simple post. For us Floridians, flooding events can occur with very little rain due to our low height above sea level, so it's nice when something that was forecast doesn't materialize, and you can't fault some of us for verbalizing that.


Back on topic: down here in S Dade, it's been raining a ton, but we've had several breaks so I don't think we're getting the extreme flooding (so far) that we could've. I'm hoping the tornado threat doesn't materialize, but am glad that most of this is not coming this way, at least at the moment :)
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