ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Vortex]

Looking at the guidance today and over the last several days, it appears Nicole is just a warm-up for the FL/Western Caribbean area…Climatology suggests as we head into next week we get a 2nd peak and South Florida Hurricane season is in full effect from October 5-25th if you look back at the many hits this part of the state has taken over the years in October…ADD to it very low pressures already across the region and a La Nina and things look pretty prime.

[HURAKAN]

Hurakan what do you mean "funny". IM

The shape, very weird for a tropical system.

Believe it or not, I was thinking about this figure when I posted that image saying that it looked funny but couldn't remember what it looked like.

A rose with 3 petals!!

[ObsessedMiami]

Hurakan what do you mean "funny". IM

The shape, very weird for a tropical system.

Believe it or not, I was thinking about this figure when I posted that image saying that it looked funny but couldn't remember what it looked like.

A rose with 3 petals!!

That is too funny because I thought of the same image. Could this be the system seperating "Nicole" from the area of disturbed weather hinted at in the models, which showed Otto right behind Nicole? Does the weird circulation around Key West also factor into this?

[Ntxw]

Looking at the guidance today and over the last several days, it appears Nicole is just a warm-up for the FL/Western Caribbean area…Climatology suggests as we head into next week we get a 2nd peak and South Florida Hurricane season is in full effect from October 5-25th if you look back at the many hits this part of the state has taken over the years in October…ADD to it very low pressures already across the region and a La Nina and things look pretty prime.

I agree with most of this, but the models also show lots of deep troughing in the east, which to me hints that strong systems are unlikely north of the greater antilles and will suffer fates much like Nicole. You need high pressure systems to ventilate storms for them to RI and the setup just doesn't favor that as the westerlies shear. Take anything beyond a few days with a grain of salt...

[Jevo]

Looking at the guidance today and over the last several days, it appears Nicole is just a warm-up for the FL/Western Caribbean area…Climatology suggests as we head into next week we get a 2nd peak and South Florida Hurricane season is in full effect from October 5-25th if you look back at the many hits this part of the state has taken over the years in October…ADD to it very low pressures already across the region and a La Nina and things look pretty prime.

Agreed

Let's not forget Wilma formed on October 15th and knocked out power and utilities for most of South Florida for weeks if not months for some areas. Just because these troughs start pushing down does not mean season closed by any means.. Wilma was set up much like Nicole except Wilma was much more organized and had a much stronger trough that actually pushed all the way through the peninsula; and gave us almost record low temps not even 5 hours after the storm had passed.

[HURAKAN]

2010 ties 2002 and 2007 with the highest number of named storms in September, 8.

What is more impressive is that all systems were of tropical origin this time, unlike 2002 and 2007.

[HURAKAN]

That is too funny because I thought of the same image. Could this be the system seperating "Nicole" from the area of disturbed weather hinted at in the models, which showed Otto right behind Nicole? Does the weird circulation around Key West also factor into this?

I think this will lift and a new system will move in, possibly the remnant vorticity from Matthew now drifting east in the EPAC

[WxSteve]

Still looking pretty nasty

[maxx9512]

Jevo, agreed after Wilma passed it reminded me of the movie "Day after Tomorrow". The temps dropped so quick when we went to see damage a jacket was need. Very Odd, since we had Charlie and it was so hot and humid after.

[Vortex]

I think October will produce 3-5 more storms….I’m also expecting at least 1 more major….

[HURAKAN]

172730 2330N 07940W 8430 01462 9967 +183 +152 166032 033 035 000 00
172800 2330N 07938W 8429 01461 9969 +179 +152 165035 036 035 000 00
172930 2330N 07933W 8429 01463 9973 +171 +152 165036 037 035 000 00

A few 35-knot at the surface ... it appears the center is moving over the Strait

[AdamFirst]

Jevo, agreed after Wilma passed it reminded me of the movie "Day after Tomorrow". The temps dropped so quick when we went to see damage a jacket was need. Very Odd, since we had Charlie and it was so hot and humid after.

I loved it. After the eyewall blew through Port Saint Lucie I looked outside around the corner...it was easily upper 50s, with the winds still gusting extremely high. It was a surreal feeling...what was even more surreal was that we saw a clear sky sunset several hours later with the winds still gusting in the 30-40 MPH range. Easily Wilma's been my favorite riding out.

Anyways, back to Nicole...is all that remnant moisture south of Cuba going to join Nicole as it heads north? Because it looks like there's alot left to go.

[Vortex]

Watch that area over the EPAC..several models in recent days take that energy and direct it ENE over the western carribean and spin-up a new storm over the next week...

[maxx9512]

Hard to tell a tropical storm is less then 120 miles from here. Skies are blue and according to local tv mets the next few days shoud be dry with low humidity and NO rain. We just had a spell of say 10 days with very little if any rain then two days of T'storms. Odd weather here for late September. Any corrulation to upcoming weather or just "Mother Nature"? I guess we'll see!

[jlauderdal]

getting some healthy totals on the coast and especially down in the keys, not bad for a very poorly defined entity

[maxx9512]

Adam,
was kinda nice weather wise as usually it sucks afterwards, no power,a/c,etc. But with Wilma not the case. Sorry for the off topic!

[invest man]

anybody have a clue where the center maybe at now.IM

[HURAKAN]

NHC says the circulation is becoming poorly defined

Has it ever been defined? lol

[Blown Away]

Jlauderdal, pretty accurate map, I measured 6+" of rain in Hobe Sound.

[fci]

They drop the TS warnings for SE FL and this thread goes quiet??

That makes sense to me. South Florida members will have little additional interest in this rainstorm and from a Tropics enthusiast standpoint the NHC says it has about 24 hours of life left in it until it is absorbed.

well, it turns out for our area they have kept them up, don't know why. They did give the percentage as an update which is

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED PROBABILITIES, WIND AND FLOODING SECTIONS.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 25 TO 32
PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST.

Not sure what warnings you are looking at; since the 11:00 AM took them down for our area, and all of Florida and as of 2:00 PM they are only for The Caymans, Cuba and Bahamas:

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Cayman Islands
* the provinces of Cuba from Matanzas eastward to Ciego de Avila
* the northwestern and central Bahamas