ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[umguy]

I live about 2 miles from the beach in Ft Lauderdale, and it's just pouring at my house. My pool was already full. So I bet it will be over flowing shortly.

[maxx9512]

Does anyone know if the Bahamas are getting alot of the rain from Nichole or is it mostly between the east coast of Fl. and there? I have not seen any heavy obs. from there. Here on the west coast we might have got a quarter inch!. Kinda hoping for a little more as we aproach dry season soon.

[artist]

Does anyone know if the Bahamas are getting alot of the rain from Nichole or is it mostly between the east coast of Fl. and there? I have not seen any heavy obs. from there. Here on the west coast we might have got a quarter inch!. Kinda hoping for a little more as we aproach dry season soon.

checking the few news sources for them online I don't see anything yet.

[jlauderdal]

I live about 2 miles from the beach in Ft Lauderdale, and it's just pouring at my house. My pool was already full. So I bet it will be over flowing shortly.

looks like we have some heavier stuff moving in shortly, its been slow and steady so far today, 1.54 in my gauge since midnight which matches up well with the storm total map i posted a few minutes ago as NE fort Lauderdale hasn't seen much so far

[tropicwatch]

I wander if the center of circulation is trying to reform closer to the keys. The radar presentation suggests it and the weather stations in the area are reporting pressures anywhere from 991mb to 996mb.

[alch97]

I new at this, but doesn't the area at 80d west and 20 n look like it's trying to form?

I'm not predicting anything, i'm just curious as what you think....



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

[sandyb]

this is a question about the models but i wanted to post here seems to get better response...why are models still developing the system into a pretty strong looking systerm tropical or sub tropical what ever its gonna be but the hurricane center talks like there is nothing to this if you look at the models you looks like when it comes into the carolinas we have a pretty good system on our hands please explain

[sandyb]

this is a question about the models but i wanted to post here seems to get better response...why are models still developing the system into a pretty strong looking systerm tropical or sub tropical what ever its gonna be but the hurricane center talks like there is nothing to this if you look at the models you looks like when it comes into the carolinas we have a pretty good system on our hands please explain

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[invest man]

this is a question about the models but i wanted to post here seems to get better response...why are models still developing the system into a pretty strong looking systerm tropical or sub tropical what ever its gonna be but the hurricane center talks like there is nothing to this if you look at the models you looks like when it comes into the carolinas we have a pretty good system on our hands please explain

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Possible explaination would be that even though that the 12z gfdl show a high end ts approaching the se nc area, that is a model and most likely not reality. Just my idea anyway, please take with a grain of salt water! IM

[wxman57]

I wander if the center of circulation is trying to reform closer to the keys. The radar presentation suggests it and the weather stations in the area are reporting pressures anywhere from 991mb to 996mb.

I'd put the low center right over the Keys now. And it is looking more like a cold front extending from that low southward into the NW Caribbean. There's one ob in the image below that's older than the others, the one with the east wind. But it does look like the low center is nearing the Keys. And look at the NW winds across the NW Caribbean. I drew a trof extending from the low, but it looks like the cold front moving into the Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

wxman57, that's the strangest thing ever! wow

[sandyb]

sandy is it raining hard where you are

just got finished with heavy rain shower here thunder can you see the water from where you are wondering about the waves

[tropicana]

Does anyone know if the Bahamas are getting alot of the rain from Nichole or is it mostly between the east coast of Fl. and there? I have not seen any heavy obs. from there. Here on the west coast we might have got a quarter inch!. Kinda hoping for a little more as we aproach dry season soon.

checking the few news sources for them online I don't see anything yet.

Rainfall update
Wed Sep 29 2010

Kingston, Jamaica 39mm ( 8am to 2pmET)
on top of 150mm ( 8pmTue to 8amWed)

Montego Bay, Jamaica 45mm ( 8am to 2pmET)
on top of 146.6mm in the 24hours ending at 8amET Wed

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 12mm( 8am to 2pmET)
on top of 45.7mm overnight

Nassau, Bahamas 71mm ( 8pmTue to 2pm Wed)
(close to 3 inches)
Havana, Cuba just 2mm
Cienfuegos, Cuba 84mm (overnight)

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

NC surf cam from nags head

http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/nag ... east_5236/

Fairly awesome pic and radar for Boca Raton too.

http://www.bocasurfcam.com/

[sandyb]

this is a question about the models but i wanted to post here seems to get better response...why are models still developing the system into a pretty strong looking systerm tropical or sub tropical what ever its gonna be but the hurricane center talks like there is nothing to this if you look at the models you looks like when it comes into the carolinas we have a pretty good system on our hands please explain

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Possible explaination would be that even though that the 12z gfdl show a high end ts approaching the se nc area, that is a model and most likely not reality. Just my idea anyway, please take with a grain of salt water! IM

take the models with a grain of salt or your word with a grain of salt?

[HURAKAN]

18z

AL, 16, 2010092918, , BEST, 0, 235N, 806W, 35, 996, TS

no change

[jhpigott]

wxman57, that's the strangest thing ever! wow

looks like the back edge of that precip shield is heading eastward at a pretty good clip. Rain may be coming to an end here along the SE coast fairly soon.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

http://img816.imageshack.us/img816/9971/byxloop.gif

wxman57, that's the strangest thing ever! wow

So could this CoC that is apparently spinning over the keys be the CoC that we all thought was positioned too far north this morning when it "looked" to be around the Isle of Youth? Is it possible to have 2 or 3 very small systems spinning near each other and as one gets weakend by the other what appears to be the CoC could be shifting?

[tropicwatch]

I wander if the center of circulation is trying to reform closer to the keys. The radar presentation suggests it and the weather stations in the area are reporting pressures anywhere from 991mb to 996mb.

I'd put the low center right over the Keys now. And it is looking more like a cold front extending from that low southward into the NW Caribbean. There's one ob in the image below that's older than the others, the one with the east wind. But it does look like the low center is nearing the Keys. And look at the NW winds across the NW Caribbean. I drew a trof extending from the low, but it looks like the cold front moving into the Caribbean.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Nicole4.gif

wxman, thanks for confirming my suspicions.

[invest man]

Possible explaination would be that even though that the 12z gfdl show a high end ts approaching the se nc area, that is a model and most likely not reality. Just my idea anyway, please take with a grain of salt water! IM[/quote]


take the models with a grain of salt or your word with a grain of salt?[/quote]

Both, lol! But really the nhc must be disregarding the 12z gfdl model feeling like the storm will dissipate before it gets near the se nc coast. My question is, they said that an extra tropical low was going to form off the fl east coast this afternoon, so how strong is that suppose to be and is it possible that is what the gfdl is picking up on in part? IM