Pouch PGI49L in central ATLC - code yellow - (Is Invest 97L)

[HURAKAN]

Interesting system although the season for the Cape Verde Islands should be about over

[GCANE]

CMC in 144 hrs thinks this may cause PR some grief.

Currently, not bad LL vorticity.

[Aquawind]

Cute little pooch..

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NICOLE...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC CENTERED ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[ColinDelia]

12z CMC (Picks it up at 84 hours)

TG,018, 2010092912, 03, CMC, 084, 187N, 589W, 22, 1010, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,018, 2010092912, 03, CMC, 090, 188N, 599W, 21, 1008, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,018, 2010092912, 03, CMC, 096, 187N, 607W, 28, 1009, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,018, 2010092912, 03, CMC, 102, 189N, 620W, 28, 1007, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,018, 2010092912, 03, CMC, 108, 190N, 630W, 31, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,018, 2010092912, 03, CMC, 114, 190N, 640W, 32, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,018, 2010092912, 03, CMC, 120, 189N, 651W, 34, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,018, 2010092912, 03, CMC, 126, 190N, 663W, 34, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,018, 2010092912, 03, CMC, 132, 190N, 676W, 31, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,018, 2010092912, 03, CMC, 138, 189N, 689W, 30, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,018, 2010092912, 03, CMC, 144, 189N, 696W, 30, 1006, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF

[GCANE]

Struggling with dry air.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... t72hrs.gif

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 850
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Weatherfreak000]

So maybe this is the Cape Verde's last gasp? If you include these two test invests and the potential for another storm from the W.Caribbean mess there is certainly no reason to think the season is at all slowing...I mean we celebrating a day's break off....if this was more of a landfalling season the pros would have no free time. Gotta be thankful for that.

[AJC3]

This thread is locked as this is now invest 97L, which can be discussed in the active storms forum:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109598