Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Unsetteled weather is instored for the next few days for the Eastern Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST WED SEP 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND A RELATIVE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINE TO RESULT IN
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY DRIER SLOT OF AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING TUTT LOW CAN BE SEEN IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. THIS AIR MASS WILL
ATTEMPT TO REACH PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE DAY...BUT SOME
DISCREPANCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL ARRIVE. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS DRIER AIR WILL REACH EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH COULD ACT AS A
BOUNDARY TO SPARK ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ISLAND LATER IN THE DAY. EVEN SO...EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING ACROSS
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING TO INDUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AS THIS DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...THIS RELATIVE DRYING WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS VERY
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING PERTURBATION IN THE
EASTERLIES...CURRENTLY NEAR 50 WEST...SURGES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY. WITH FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...VERY
LIGHT WINDS...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...PRESENTLY EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY WET END OF
THE WEEK/WEEKEND ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS ALREADY IN FORECAST FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND MAY ACTUALLY SEE THIS VERY WET PERIOD
PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK IF LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS ARE CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR XCPT FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
JBQ/JMZ WITH A TSRA AFT 29/16Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY.

[expat2carib]

Rise and shine peeps. This could impact the islands soon.

[msbee]

Rise and shine peeps. This could impact the islands soon.

Go away!
Not you, expat, that weather should go away! LOL

[Gustywind]

Rise and shine peeps. This could impact the islands soon.

Go away!
Not you, expat, that weather should go away! LOL

Stay with us not this wave but yes you Msbee, Expat and Gusty LOL and our others friends

[Gustywind]

[Macrocane]

Good morning! It has been raining in El Salvador since midnight and the southerly winds have increased, if the rains continue I think we will see more mudslides and floods, there has been 3 casualties and more than 1100 people affected since saturday. I will keep you updated.

The latest radar shows the rains just over and south of San Salvador:

[abajan]

As would be expected, the flooding situation in Jamaica is quite bad, according to latest reports at stormCARIB.

[cycloneye]

As would be expected, the flooding situation in Jamaica is quite bad, according to latest reports at stormCARIB.

Oh my,is very bad there,hopefully the rains stop soon.

[tropicana]

As would be expected, the flooding situation in Jamaica is quite bad, according to latest reports at stormCARIB.

150mm of rain reported at Norman Manley International Airport, Jamaica from 8pmET to 8amET this morning.

[tropicana]

Rainfall update
Wed Sep 29 2010

Kingston, Jamaica 39mm ( 8am to 2pmET)
on top of 150mm ( 8pmTue to 8amWed)


Montego Bay, Jamaica 45mm ( 8am to 2pmET)
on top of 146.6mm in the 24hours ending at 8amET Wed

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 12mm( 8am to 2pmET)
on top of 45.7mm overnight

Nassau, Bahamas 71mm ( 8pmTue to 2pm Wed)

Havana, Cuba just 2mm
Cienfuegos, Cuba 84mm (overnight)

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST WED SEP 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND A RELATIVE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINE TO RESULT IN
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO SINCE EARLY AFTERNOON
GENERATING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES MAINLY
OVER THE MUNICIPALITY OF CABO RAJO. ANOTHER AREA THAT WAS AFFECTED
BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST
SIMILAR AREA TO YESTERDAY RAIN...THIS INCLUDES THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING REMAIN HIGH.

A PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLIES NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 54 W WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND REACH OUR LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS...VERY LIGHT WINDS...AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...PRESENTLY EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY WET END
OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS TJPS...TJMZ...AND
TJBQ AT LEAST THROUGH 29/22Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCED
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VISIBILITIES.

[Macrocane]

El Salvador is under orange alert because of the rains, they are expected to continue today and tomorrow, here's the latest map of rainfall:

[abajan]

So far nine people have lost their lives due to the flooding in Jamaica caused by TS Nicole.
Source: http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/jamaica.shtml

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
758 PM AST WED SEP 29 2010

PRC055-059-111-113-121-153-300230-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0434.000000T0000Z-100930T0230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SABANA GRANDE PR-YAUCO PR-GUAYANILLA PR-GUANICA PR-PONCE PR-
PENUELAS PR-
758 PM AST WED SEP 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
SABANA GRANDE...YAUCO...GUAYANILLA...GUANICA...PONCE AND
PENUELAS

* UNTIL 1030 PM AST

* AT 750 PM AST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND
THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED THAT ALTHOUGH THE HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUED TO DIMINISH...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
CONTINUED ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. IN ADDITION...THE U.S.G.S
RIVER SENSORS INDICATED THAT RUNOFF FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THIS AREA. AT
LEAST UNTIL 1030 PM AST...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...THEREFORE THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
944 PM AST WED SEP 29 2010

.UPDATE...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE...THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM
NICOLE. SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED SO FAR THIS EVENING
FOR MUNICIPALITIES FROM PONCE WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
ROJO AND ANASCO. THIS WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING HOURS. A PERTURBATION IN THE
EASTERLIES LOCATED AT AROUND 55 WEST LATE THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND WILL REACH OUR LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY. VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
PERTURBATION...WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY.
WITH FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...VERY LIGHT WINDS...AND
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...PRESENTLY EXPECTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A VERY WET END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS
ALREADY IN FORECAST FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND MAY
ACTUALLY SEE THIS VERY WET PERIOD PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK IF LATEST COMPUTER MODELS ARE CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST LOCAL TAF SITE. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT TJPS WHERE TEMPO MVFR CONDS IS FCST TIL 30/04Z
DUE TO PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. THEREAFTER VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL.
ELSEWHERE AND EN ROUTE BTW PR AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VFR CONDS IS
FCST EXCEPT FOR PASSING SHRA...WHICH WILL BRING INTMT PERIODS OF
MVFR AND MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS ACROSS ERN INTERIOR AND AROUND TISX...
TIST... TJNR...AND TJSJ AT LEAST UNTIL 30/12Z. THEREAFTER VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTH EAST WND FLOW AROUND 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL BLO 080K FT...BCMG
W-NW AN INCR WITH HEIGHT TO 15-30 KTS ABV 100K FT.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (abbreviated)
for Wed Sep 29 2010 (rainfall 8pm to 8pm)

San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.7C 89F 6.0mm
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 29.9C 86F 70.7mm
Kingston, Jamaica 29.5C 85F 173.0mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 27.8C 82F 112.0mm

Havana, Cuba 30.1C 86F 6.0mm
Nassau, Bahamas 29.6C 85F 74.9mm

Hamilton, Bermuda 27.6C 82F

-justin-

[abajan]

Jamaicans must surely be wondering if the rain will ever end!

[Gustywind]

Wet weather in store for the next couple of days... watching to our east Invest 97L.
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300839
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 AM AST THU SEP 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN A WET/ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL INDUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...NORTHWEST AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND POSSIBLY THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THEREFORE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN ISOLATED AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE SUNSET...LEAVING PARTLY TO VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.

THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY ON AND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF TWO TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. NHC HAS DECLARED INVEST
AL97 WITH THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST ALONG 43W. PLEASE
REFER TO TROPICAL WX OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR XCPT FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
JBQ/JMZ WITH TSRA. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AROUND 10
KNOTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT THROUGH SAT. FCST
FROM SUN ON BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN WITH A POTENTIAL TROPICAL LOW
MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN.


&&

.CLIMATE...SEPT 2010 WILL LIKELY RANK AS THE 10TH WETTEST SEPT ON
RECORD AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WITH A TOTAL OF 8.86 INCHES OF RAIN
ASSUMING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP FALLS AT THE ARPT TODAY. A TOTAL OF
66.22 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN MEASURED SO FAR THIS YEAR. WITH STILL
THREE MONTHS LEFT IN THE CALENDAR YEAR 2010 ALREADY RANKS AS THE 9TH
WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD AND CONTINUES WELL ON TRACK TO FINISH AS THE
WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD.

FOR ST. THOMAS...SEPT 2010 WILL LIKELY RANK AS THE EIGHT DRIEST SEPT
ON RECORD. A TOTAL OF ONLY 2.46 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN MEASURED AT
THE CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 87 78 / 20 20 50 60
STT 88 79 87 79 / 10 20 60 60

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

64/23

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Patches of showers racing near the islands...