ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[DanKellFla]

Why is school out?

[brunota2003]

Areas of Craven County (where New Bern and Havelock are), flood easily...some areas flood just from a good thunderstorm. With all this rain, I imagine there are numerous roads flooded and closed, so they decided to keep the schools closed.


In the last 24 hours, KNKT (MCAS Cherry Point, NC...right beside Havelock) has picked up 4.98 inches of rain (07:54 9/29 to 07:54 9/30), with 2.78 inches of that falling in the last 6 hours.

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNKT.html

[artist]

Why is school out?

they have incredible flooding, some of which was from the front, then this, going on there as well as the winds have picked up this morning.
go to http://www.hurricantrack.com and see Mark Sudduth live from there.

[wxman57]

JB is going nuts claiming Nicole is still there and may bomb out as it approaches the NC Coast, but I can't find any LLC in Nicole's remnants. It appears to have completely merged with the cold front. But ahead of the front, there's a band of 40-45 mph southerly wind extending from just east of the Bahamas to NC.

[wsquared77]

Yep, lots of roads closed around here. I work at MCAS Cherry Point and it's been raining hard, pretty much non-stop all morning. Plus the winds been kicking up a little too. I have a student who lives in Jacksonville, NC and it took him 2 hours to get to base this morning for class. Last I checked most of US 17 between New Bern and Jacksonville is closed. I can't imagine the school buses trying to get out in this weather. It reminds me of the weather we had with a few hurricanes when we lived in south FL, just with less wind.

[invest man]

JB is going nuts claiming Nicole is still there and may bomb out as it approaches the NC Coast, but I can't find any LLC in Nicole's remnants. It appears to have completely merged with the cold front. But ahead of the front, there's a band of 40-45 mph southerly wind extending from just east of the Bahamas to NC.

It appears that perhaps the remnants of nicole are trying to come back just east of J'ville Fla. Not sure if this extratropical (pretty sure it is) however it is concerning because it looks to be tracking due north on sats. My concern is that strang things happens to low pressure areas over the Gulf Stream off Fla to Hatteras. With all the rain here, estimates from 6 to 16 inches so far, if this area gets winds of ts strength in the coastal plains this afternoon & evening we could have a real mess on our hands! IM

[emeraldislencguy]

just had a wind gust of 39 mph
several trees have blwn down to the wet ground
i agree that it looks more tropical now

[invest man]

just had a wind gust of 39 mph
several trees have blwn down to the wet ground
i agree that it looks more tropical now

Hey EIGuy, I heard there was a gust out your way of 81 mph can you confirm or deny, just curious? IM

[emeraldislencguy]

havent heard that but will check
been through several storns here in the past 15 years
this feels very tropical

[invest man]

I believe I heard that on Ch12 but not real sure which media outlet it was! IM

[tolakram]

I think I found some turning.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Not too clean, speed it up to see best.

[AJC3]

I think I found some turning.

Not too clean, speed it up to see best.

The area of turning has become very and broad and elongated given the magnitude and areal extent of jet forced lift causing such a large area of pressure falls. There's "something" out there, but it sure as heck isn't a tropical cyclone. More like an ill-defined gale (34kt+) or perhaps storm (50kt+).

[emeraldislencguy]

just came back from ride around the area
the rain is coming down hard and the wind has picked up
the white oak river is higher than usual and it has come up to the parking lot
at the boat ramp in cedar point
it may not be tropical but it sure is acting like a tropical system
more tree limbs down and more bracnhes down than during the hurricane earleir this month
heard some of the roads in jacksonville have been closed due to high water

[AJC3]

just came back from ride around the area
the rain is coming down hard and the wind has picked up
the white oak river is higher than usual and it has come up to the parking lot
at the boat ramp in cedar point
it may not be tropical but it sure is acting like a tropical system
more tree limbs down and more bracnhes down than during the hurricane earleir this month
heard some of the roads in jacksonville have been closed due to high water

Yeah, in spite of it not being a TC, there's no doubt y'all have been getting hammered up in NC, and there's more surely to come. Stay safe up there.

[emeraldislencguy]

I agree the worst is yet to come
if you look at the satellite I think we have at least 12 more hours of this sutff
I am worried about the trees falling as the ground is so wet

[OuterBanker]

Wind steady 25 to 35 gust past 40, still no rain (not complaining). Still around seven hazardous watches and warnings. Things really starting to blow around. Closing schools at 1pm, no ferry service. Winds are really warm.

[emeraldislencguy]

we have been soaked with rain here
the wind is picking up too
it is warm here and very tropical feeling

[emeraldislencguy]

hardest rain right now since it started
hard to see across the street
wind sis gusting to 39 now

[hurricaneCW]

Amazing how my area is expected to dodge most of this, most of my state is dry slotted and even Nicole's remnants aren't going to bring much rain over here except in eastern PA per the gfs. The winds are going to be uneventful as well unless your on the immediate coast. I guess I should consider myself lucky because there's a lot of flooding going on all around the area from NC to NY.

[wxman57]

Satellite may indicate some turning aloft, but surface obs indicate a cold frontal trof. To the northwest of the convective blob, there are strong winds out of the NW. Same thing southwest of the blob - strong NW winds. No circulation at the surface. Ahead of the front, SSE winds 25-40 kts all the way from east of the Bahamas to Delaware.