CSU biweekly forecast Sept 29-Oct 12, 2010: Above average

[supercane]

Link to forecast

We believe that the next two weeks will be characterized by above-average amounts of activity (greater than 130 percent of climatology). The average ACE accrued during the period from 1950-2009 from September 29 – October 12 was 10.7 units, and consequently, our forecast for the next two weeks is for at least 13.9 ACE units to be generated.
The above-average forecast is due primarily to the heightened amount of activity being called for by most of the global models. Tropical Depression 16 is currently centered near Cuba and is likely to develop into a weak tropical storm. Most models develop another one or two systems in the northwest Caribbean over the next two weeks. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains quite weak. The weakness of the MJO during this year’s August-September period has made issuing these two-week forecasts quite challenging.

[cycloneye]

They now have to wait for 97L if it develops into a TC to get plenty of ACE units as Nicole did not add ACE units that they were expecting.

[dwsqos2]

13.9 units is quite a bit. It's not unusual to see late season majors produce less than that. Notably, Omar generated less.

[CrazyC83]

13.9 units is quite a bit. It's not unusual to see late season majors produce less than that. Notably, Omar generated less.

I believe the November 1932 hurricane has the record for a late-season storm?

[dwsqos2]

At 45.1 units storm 10 of 1932 almost assuredly holds the record for a late-season storm. Wilma produced ~39. Mitch generated ~35. I can't think of any other late-season storms that combined the longevity and power of these three.

From perusing the wiki individual storm totals, I didn't see any other greater values for late season storms; I didn't check carefully though.

Oh yeah, I forgot Hazel (~41 units).

[dwsqos2]

I am going to be bold, well not really, and guess that this doesn't verify. Couple a bad phase of the MJO and nothing other than a relatively weak 97L in a so-so environment on the reliable globals, and there really isn't that much out there with the potential to produce 13.9 units of ACE.

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[MGC]

I doubt this forecast will pan out.....Atlantic is entering a quiet strech.....MGC

[gatorcane]

I doubt this forecast will pan out.....Atlantic is entering a quiet strech.....MGC

I think the western caribbean is about ready to take off again......by this time next week.