ATL: OTTO - Models

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Vortex
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#61 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 5:24 pm

H156 moving slowly....



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif
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#62 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 5:29 pm

H192....very broad between Jamaic and Haiti..


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal192.gif
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#63 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 5:30 pm

The trends are towards the central/western carribean....
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#64 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 5:38 pm

H228 near Jamaica



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif
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#65 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 5:40 pm

Beyond 228 hard to track....
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models

#66 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 5:56 pm

18Z Nogaps...48H over leewards


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#67 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 5:56 pm

H66 over PR



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#68 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 5:57 pm

H96 over DR


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#69 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 5:57 pm

H144 over Turks and caicos



area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2010093018&prod=prp&tau=144&set=Tropical
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#70 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 5:59 pm

18 Z Nogaps....interesting set-up for the bahamas/SE coast potentially...


Loop:


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#71 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 6:01 pm

200mb High right over cyclone in the SE bahamas...



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#72 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 6:02 pm

Notice how it turns w/wnw at the end....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re:

#73 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 30, 2010 7:14 pm

Vortex wrote:Notice how it turns w/wnw at the end....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


Can't tell if there is enough weakness left as that trough moves through to recurve?
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models

#74 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2010 7:29 pm

00z Tropical Models

Finnally, we have the Bams and look at the very agressive SHIP.

Code: Select all

693
WHXX01 KWBC 010026
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0026 UTC FRI OCT 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20101001 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101001  0000   101001  1200   101002  0000   101002  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.5N  53.1W   13.4N  55.6W   14.4N  57.8W   15.4N  59.8W
BAMD    12.5N  53.1W   13.3N  55.5W   14.2N  57.6W   15.0N  59.4W
BAMM    12.5N  53.1W   13.3N  55.5W   14.4N  57.7W   15.3N  59.6W
LBAR    12.5N  53.1W   13.5N  56.3W   14.7N  59.1W   15.8N  61.9W
SHIP        25KTS          30KTS          38KTS          49KTS
DSHP        25KTS          30KTS          38KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101003  0000   101004  0000   101005  0000   101006  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.4N  61.4W   17.3N  64.2W   17.7N  67.3W   18.1N  70.0W
BAMD    15.5N  60.9W   15.7N  63.0W   15.7N  63.8W   16.8N  64.3W
BAMM    16.0N  61.0W   16.6N  63.3W   16.7N  65.2W   17.4N  66.8W
LBAR    17.1N  64.1W   19.1N  67.9W   20.6N  71.1W   19.2N  72.9W
SHIP        62KTS          76KTS          82KTS          92KTS
DSHP        62KTS          76KTS          82KTS          92KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.5N LONCUR =  53.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  20KT
LATM12 =  12.0N LONM12 =  49.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =  20KT
LATM24 =  11.6N LONM24 =  42.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

Image
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#75 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 7:36 pm

ships takes it to 92kts...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models

#76 Postby OURAGAN » Thu Sep 30, 2010 7:56 pm

The forecast track is very close to Guadeloupe.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models

#77 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 30, 2010 8:01 pm

OURAGAN wrote:The forecast track is very close to Guadeloupe.

The models that keep it that far south are (mostly) the ones that don't develop the system. There are exceptions, but CMC is both the most bullish and the most northerly.
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#78 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:00 pm

Very interesting, this is getting further and further west with the models then I thought it would.
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#79 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:09 pm

00Z NAM broad low over windwards/leewards...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030l.gif
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#80 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:22 pm

H48 Low over NE carribean



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif
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