#113 Postby hurricaneCW » Thu Sep 30, 2010 8:07 pm
The whole Caribbean and Western Atlantic are covered by very low pressures and widespread convection. In fact, it looks nothing like the Atlantic you would typically see. Normally you have one or two smaller areas of convection and either they consolidate or not. However, 97L is massive, the remaining convection in the Caribbean is massive, the whole gyre is like the western Pacific. If the Atlantic was actually somewhat larger, we would have probably seen an insane super typhoon like storm develop in our basin.
Since our basin is much smaller, we get several lows that compete against each other and in this type of setup, by the time one low begins to take over, they are torn apart by unfavorable conditions and cooler water temperatures. This is why we struggled to hard just to get a name out of that mess in the Caribbean last week and now most of this week, and after all that, we barely got a named storm. The same idea will probably happen with this one, it's a large area of convection and low pressure that will struggle to organization because of its size and other lows around it fighting for the same energy.
I could see 97L becoming the next named storm, but I doubt it becomes anything more than another tropical storm although it will be another large one packed with tons of moisture.
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looks good luis..the models that develop this system have placement right there...
