Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. It has been a very rainy year so far breaking records in Puerto Rico,especially in San Juan. And there are three more months left so more breaking records for sure will occur.

.CLIMATE...SEPT 2010 WILL LIKELY RANK AS THE 10TH WETTEST SEPT ON
RECORD AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WITH A TOTAL OF 8.86 INCHES OF RAIN
ASSUMING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP FALLS AT THE ARPT TODAY. A TOTAL OF
66.22 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN MEASURED SO FAR THIS YEAR. WITH STILL
THREE MONTHS LEFT IN THE CALENDAR YEAR 2010 ALREADY RANKS AS THE 9TH
WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD AND CONTINUES WELL ON TRACK TO FINISH AS THE
WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD.

FOR ST. THOMAS...SEPT 2010 WILL LIKELY RANK AS THE EIGHT DRIEST SEPT
ON RECORD. A TOTAL OF ONLY 2.46 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN MEASURED AT
THE CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT.

[Gustywind]

[abajan]

Looks like the next couple of days are gonna be pretty rainy and thundery. It’s pretty cloudy right now and about 15 minutes ago there was a distant roll of thunder.
I just hope things don’t get as intense as this!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8cMSyzFoLs&feature=fvw[/youtube]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
146 PM AST THU SEP 30 2010

PRC009-019-039-043-073-075-107-113-141-149-302045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0437.100930T1746Z-100930T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-COAMO PR-AIBONITO PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-JAYUYA PR-OROCOVIS PR-
UTUADO PR-VILLALBA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-
146 PM AST THU SEP 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...COAMO...AIBONITO...BARRANQUITAS...JAYUYA...OROCOVIS...
UTUADO...VILLALBA...JUANA DIAZ AND PONCE

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 144 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO RAPID WATER RISES IN SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...AT LEAST UNTIL 445 PM AST.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
208 PM AST THU SEP 30 2010

PRC003-005-011-013-017-027-054-065-071-081-083-097-099-115-117-131-
141-302100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0438.100930T1808Z-100930T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-FLORIDA PR-MOCA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-
UTUADO PR-AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-LAS MARIAS PR-LARES PR-
BARCELONETA PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-RINCON PR-ANASCO PR-
ARECIBO PR-
208 PM AST THU SEP 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...FLORIDA...MOCA...QUEBRADILLAS...SAN SEBASTIAN...
UTUADO...AGUADILLA...AGUADA...LAS MARIAS...LARES...
BARCELONETA...CAMUY...HATILLO...MAYAGUEZ...RINCON...ANASCO AND
ARECIBO

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 207 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS
THESE MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO RAPID WATER RISES IN SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AT LEAST UNTIL 500 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[Macrocane]

Hello everyone! Yesterday was one of the wettest days of the year in El Salvador the station of Los Andes experienced 221.8 mm (8.73 inches) of rain in just 24 hours! that's the 2nd highest 24-hours rainfall reading of the year (the first one was 483 mm during Agatha). The rains have continued today in El Salvador but with less frequency than the previous days and for the first time in 5 days we saw the sun for a few minutes, at the moment it's raining again and it seems that this could be a wet afternoon though not as wet as yesterday. Here's the latest map of rainfall:

[Macrocane]

One of the good things of the rains have been the cool temperatures, yesterday temperatures:
Temperatures

Code: Select all

Santa Ana        min:20.1°C/68.2°F      max:23.3°C/73.9°F
San Salvador     min:20.7°C/69.3°F      max:23.9°C/75.0°F
Las Pilas        min:14.0°C/57.2°F      max:16.0°C/60.8°F
San Miguel       min:22.9°C/73.2°F      max:26.3°C/79.2°F 


[cycloneye]

Flood Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST THU SEP 30 2010

PRC017-039-047-051-091-101-107-143-145-302145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0439.100930T1848Z-100930T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-OROCOVIS PR-MOROVIS PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-
BARCELONETA PR-MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
248 PM AST THU SEP 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...COROZAL...OROCOVIS...MOROVIS...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...
BARCELONETA...MANATI AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 247 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO RAPID WATER RISES IN SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...AT LEAST UNTIL 545 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU SEP 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN A WET/ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS AND SLOWLY DRIFTED TOWARD THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED TO NICOLE THAT EXTEND FROM EAST OF
FLORIDA TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL BEGAN
TO LIFT AS NICOLE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW
LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE TO THE WEST AND
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO INCREASE THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY. A BETTER ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD
BE MONITOR AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR ED IN THE PAST FEW DAY AND
RAINFALL THAT WILL OCCUR WITH FIRST TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLE TJPS THROUGH AT LEAST 30/23Z IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...WITH VCSH ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS..AND
GUSTY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT. TONIGHT THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONCENTRATE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. FROM NOW THROUGH THE INCOMING
WEEK...UNSETTLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 PM AST THU SEP 30 2010

PRC017-039-047-051-091-101-107-143-145-302345-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0439.000000T0000Z-100930T2345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-OROCOVIS PR-MOROVIS PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-
BARCELONETA PR-MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
517 PM AST THU SEP 30 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...COROZAL...OROCOVIS...MOROVIS...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...
BARCELONETA...MANATI AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 745 PM AST

AT 515 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO RAPID WATER RISES
IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. FOR THOSE REASONS THE FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 745 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

Look at how are the rains falling here, and 97L is still far.

[msbee]

Good morning. It has been a very rainy year so far breaking records in Puerto Rico,especially in San Juan. And there are three more months left so more breaking records for sure will occur.

.CLIMATE...SEPT 2010 WILL LIKELY RANK AS THE 10TH WETTEST SEPT ON
RECORD AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WITH A TOTAL OF 8.86 INCHES OF RAIN
ASSUMING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP FALLS AT THE ARPT TODAY. A TOTAL OF
66.22 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN MEASURED SO FAR THIS YEAR. WITH STILL
THREE MONTHS LEFT IN THE CALENDAR YEAR 2010 ALREADY RANKS AS THE 9TH
WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD AND CONTINUES WELL ON TRACK TO FINISH AS THE
WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD.

FOR ST. THOMAS...SEPT 2010 WILL LIKELY RANK AS THE EIGHT DRIEST SEPT
ON RECORD. A TOTAL OF ONLY 2.46 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN MEASURED AT
THE CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT.

I find that very interesting Luis
the wettest month for PR and the driest for St. Thomas and you are so close to each other.
It only takes a few miles to make a difference.

[tropicana]

Regional Rainfall and Highs for
Thu Sep 30 2010 (abbreviated)

Rainfall period 8pm Wed to 8pm ET Thur)

Hato Airport, Curacao 30.5C 87F 27.6mm
Queen Beatrix, Aruba 30.0C 86F 16.8mm

San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.6C 87F trace
Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 28.6C 84F 17.0mm
Kingston, Jamaica 29.5C 85F 109.0mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 29.3C 85F 13.0mm
Havana, Cuba 30.7C 87F 0.2mm

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1006 PM AST THU SEP 30 2010

.UPDATE...WHILE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
DIMINISHED OR MOVED OFFSHORE ACROSS PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...SHOWER AND ISOLATED BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS...AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINS...WITH
RIO CULEBRINA AND RIO GUANAJIBO STILL ABOVE ACTION STAGE DURING
THE LATE EVENING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO AFFECTED
PARTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
SAINT THOMAS AIRPORT REPORTING A WIND GUSTS OF 33 MPH WITH A
PASSING THUNDERSTORM WHICH PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SAINT CROIX ALSO RECEIVED BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED SPOTS.

EXPECT MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH INCREASING PWAT VALUES TO 2.0 INCHES OR MORE STILL EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. UPPER TUTT NOW SHIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST
ACROSS LOCAL AREA WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION...
EXPECT ADDITIONAL TROPICAL/ITCZ MOISTURE WITH THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS STILL EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
HOWEVER NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO TO SEE HOW THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES UNFOLD. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TO THE INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS BASED ON PRESENT WEATHER AND THE LATEST
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH OVERALL SUGGESTED A WET WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE REST
OF THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS TISX AND TIST. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES...VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST 01/12Z.
AFTER 01/14Z SHRA OR TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
TAF SITES...PERSISTING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS
FRIDAY. THIS SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY ACROSS
TJBQ...TJMZ...TJPS AND POSSIBLY TJSJ. TJSJ 01/00Z INDICATED LLVL
WINDS FROM THE ESE AT 10 TO 20 KTS...BECOMING FROM THE NORTH AND
STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Wet weather for this weekend and beyond is instored. And 97L,will it affect us?


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST FRI OCT 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LVL LOW SOUTH OF BERMUDA WILL LIFT NORTH AND GET
ABSORBED BY POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN U.S. OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS TO BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION WHILE AT THE
SFC AN INVERTED TROF PATTERN IS TO SET UP ACROSS THE LEEWARDS ON SAT
AND MOVE OVER PR/USVI ON SUN. BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WX ACROSS
THE CNTRL ATLC MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS WNW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES GREATER THAN 2.0
INCHES EXTENDS FROM CNTRL AMERICA EAST TO THE CNTRL ATLC TO
LONGITUDE 40W. CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY WILL DEPEND ON DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. STEERING FLOW IS MORE FROM THE
SSE SO NCNTRL AND NW SECTIONS OF PR WILL BE MORE FAVORED. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT-SAT...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE
EAST SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE BLOWUP IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ST. CROIX AND
SOUTHEAST PR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT. MORE OF THE SAME SAT WITH
CONVECTION LIKELY CONCENTRATED OVR WRN/NWRN PR UNDER A MORE ESE FLOW.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...INVERTED TROF IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS PR AND
USVI WITH GREATER CONVECTIVE CVRG AND RISK OF SOME FLOODING.

FCST FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON WHAT
BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WX DOES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM AND
TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH OF PR NEXT WEEK WITH SYSTEM RECURVING LATER IN
THE WEEK AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP INTO THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
SHOWS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN STARTING MON THAT LASTS
THRU THU NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT IN HAZARDOUS
WX OUTLOOK AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE
TO ITS PROLONGED NATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 01/16Z. AFT 01/16Z...MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLE TJPS AND TJSJ IN SHRA/TSRA. A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT. SEAS MAY
INCREASE TO 6-7 FT ACROSS OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS IF SYSTEM ACROSS
THE CNTRL ATLC DEVELOPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...VERY WET PATTERN THAT WILL BECOME WETTER THROUGH
TIME. RISK OF HEAVY AND PERSISTENT RAINS IS VERY HIGH THAT WILL
KEEP STREAM FLOW HIGH AND CONTINUE TO SATURATE SOILS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HVY RAIN NEXT WEEK. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IMPACTS. MAY ISSUE
AN ESF LATER THIS MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT/RISK.

[knotimpaired]

Good morning Luis,

We are currently getting hammered!

K

[bvigal]

Good morning! Wow, Vieques and Culebra had storms all night, huh?

000
FGCA72 TJSJ 011101
ESFSJU
PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053>055-057-059-061-063-
065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-
097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-
129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-VIC010-020-
030-012300-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
701 AM AST FRI OCT 1 2010

...HEAVY AND PERSISTENT RAINS WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND TO MOVE ONSHORE AND AFFECT THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP SOILS SATURATED AND KEEP
STREAM LEVELS HIGH AND POSE A RISK OF SOME FLOODING.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK BEGINNING MONDAY THAT COULD LAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THIS LARGE AND
COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST
NORTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY. REGARDLESS
OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY AND PERSISTENT RAINS AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND HENCE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO OCCUR IS DURING THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO INCLUDING VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT
GREATEST RISK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS POINT. HIGHER OR LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND HOW LONG IT TAKES
FOR THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA.

GIVEN THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS POTENTIAL EVENT AND THE VERY
WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THIS EVENT POSES AT LEAST A MODERATE
THREAT OF FLOODING. MODERATE MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS
FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS WITH INUNDATION OF STRUCTURES AND ROADS
NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS IS POSSIBLE. THIS EVENT MAY ALSO POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITH SOME EVACUATIONS OF
PEOPLE OR TRANSFER OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEEDED.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SOURCE FOR INFORMATION IS THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AVAILABLE FROM OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN.

$$

ROSA

[cycloneye]

Flood Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1231 PM AST FRI OCT 1 2010

VIC020-030-011930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0443.101001T1631Z-101001T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-
1231 PM AST FRI OCT 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS

* UNTIL 330 PM AST

AT 1230 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SAINT THOMAS AND
SAINT JOHN. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO RAPID WATER RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AT LEAST THROUGH 330 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...
AND LOW SPOTS IN HIGHWAYS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING. ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
127 PM AST FRI OCT 1 2010

PRC001-003-005-011-019-039-043-065-071-073-075-081-083-093-097-099-
107-113-117-131-141-149-012030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0444.101001T1727Z-101001T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-CIALES PR-COAMO PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-JAYUYA PR-ADJUNTAS
PR-MARICAO PR-OROCOVIS PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-UTUADO
PR-VILLALBA PR-AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-LAS MARIAS PR-LARES PR-HATILLO
PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-RINCON PR-ANASCO PR-123 PM AST
FRI OCT 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...CIALES...COAMO...BARRANQUITAS...JAYUYA...ADJUNTAS...
MARICAO...OROCOVIS...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...VILLALBA...
AGUADILLA...AGUADA...LAS MARIAS...LARES...HATILLO...JUANA
DIAZ...PONCE...MAYAGUEZ...RINCON AND ANASCO

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 123 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO RAPID WATER RISES IN SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AT LEAST THROUGH 430 PM AST.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
136 PM AST FRI OCT 1 2010

PRC021-029-031-033-051-061-087-119-127-135-137-139-143-145-012030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0445.101001T1736Z-101001T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-
GUAYNABO PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
SAN JUAN PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-TOA BAJA PR-
136 PM AST FRI OCT 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...
GUAYNABO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...CATANO...VEGA BAJA...SAN
JUAN...LOIZA...RIO GRANDE AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 134 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO RAPID WATER RISES IN SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.