ATL: OTTO - Models

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Vortex
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#81 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:27 pm

H54 a little stronger in NE carribean...Favorable upper air pattern..ridge building west...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif
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#82 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:28 pm

H54 upper level high building over NE carribean...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif
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#83 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:30 pm

As the ridge is building west this could be a real problem for PR and DR...
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#84 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:31 pm

H60 Due west...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif
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#85 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:37 pm

H66..strengthening..Just east of PR Sunday...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif
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#86 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:38 pm

H66 ridge continues building west...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif
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#87 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:41 pm

H72 well orgainzed....



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif
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#88 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:43 pm

H72 500mb ridge to the North building west..Cutoff low over ohio valley may play a very important role as the system is near the bahamas...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif
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#89 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:44 pm

:uarrow: Anticyclone right over cyclone...
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#90 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:46 pm

H72 200mb weak upper low to the NE may helf ventilate system with anti-cyclone overtop looks to make very favorable environmental conditions...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif
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#91 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:47 pm

H78 strongest yet..over the VI and nearing PR....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif
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Re:

#92 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:48 pm

Vortex wrote:H72 200mb weak upper low to the NE may helf ventilate system with anti-cyclone overtop looks to make very favorable environmental conditions...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

Gigantic trough over the eastern conus
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#93 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:51 pm

NAM loop..Impressive storm....



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#94 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:54 pm

Were expected to be in a postive NAO through the 8th...something we haven't seen to this point...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models

#95 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 30, 2010 9:55 pm

If the nam is right, Puerto Rico would be like the Niagara Falls or the Great Lakes with massive flooding everywhere. :double:
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#96 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Sep 30, 2010 10:32 pm

00Z GFS rolling...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models

#97 Postby bvigal » Thu Sep 30, 2010 10:35 pm

Here, too, Luis! The last hard rain we had, which lasted maybe 30 minutes, flooded several homes and businesses very quickly! The ghuts are still clogged with leaves from Earl, which by now are like solid rubber 3+ft thick, topped with branches, etc. No rain will wash them out, they will have to be dug out with backhoes, a long, difficult process that will take weeks.
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#98 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Sep 30, 2010 10:44 pm

Does this have any chance of making it into the Gulf? I keep hearing people say how the season is over for the Western and Central gulf because of the troughs but I don't know how sure that is. When a front comes through does that mean no more storms can track through or would the front have to retreat as a warm front? Sorry, I have very little knowledge in all of this.
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Re: Re:

#99 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 30, 2010 10:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Vortex wrote:H72 200mb weak upper low to the NE may helf ventilate system with anti-cyclone overtop looks to make very favorable environmental conditions...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

Gigantic trough over the eastern conus


Indeed! Would likely induce a recurve possibly towards bermuda.
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Re:

#100 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 30, 2010 10:56 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Does this have any chance of making it into the Gulf? I keep hearing people say how the season is over for the Western and Central gulf because of the troughs but I don't know how sure that is. When a front comes through does that mean no more storms can track through or would the front have to retreat as a warm front? Sorry, I have very little knowledge in all of this.


For at least the next 2 weeks, the Gulf will be dominated by a very strong SW-NE jet core as cool air spills out over the Gulf behind several fronts, the strongest of which may arrive on the 11th of October. That meas SW-WSW flow aloft of 40-80 kts all across the Gulf during that period. Anything approaching the NW Caribbean would be turned sharply northeast. You're safe in Baton Rouge.

Take a look at the upper left panel on the GFS forecast for 10 days out from now. West wind at 50-60 kts at 200 mb all the way down to the Yucatan. Can't get a storm in the Gulf with those winds.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml
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