ATL: OTTO - Models

[Vortex]

00Z GFS H54 low over SE carribean......



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal054.gif

[BigB0882]

Does this have any chance of making it into the Gulf? I keep hearing people say how the season is over for the Western and Central gulf because of the troughs but I don't know how sure that is. When a front comes through does that mean no more storms can track through or would the front have to retreat as a warm front? Sorry, I have very little knowledge in all of this.

For at least the next 2 weeks, the Gulf will be dominated by a very strong SW-NE jet core as cool air spills out over the Gulf behind several fronts, the strongest of which may arrive on the 11th of October. That meas SW-WSW flow aloft of 40-80 kts all across the Gulf during that period. Anything approaching the NW Caribbean would be turned sharply northeast. You're safe in Baton Rouge.

Take a look at the upper left panel on the GFS forecast for 10 days out from now. West wind at 50-60 kts at 200 mb all the way down to the Yucatan. Can't get a storm in the Gulf with those winds.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml

Thanks, that sounds spectacular! Loving this weather, that is for sure.

[Vortex]

H78 SSW of PR




http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal078.gif

[Vortex]

H108 S DR



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif

[Vortex]

H132 S of Haiti



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

[Vortex]

H150 S of jamaica



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

[Vortex]

H204 sw of jamaica



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif

[Vortex]

00Z Nogaps H72 over PR


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[dwsqos2]

So, basically, the gfs remains quite paltry.

[Vortex]

Nogaps 00z builds in strong ridge to the north and takes system into the bahamas than cuba.....



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

So, basically, the gfs remains quite paltry.

dws,

when i said hurricane kate earlier today....the nogaps looks strikling similar...

[Vortex]

So, basically, the gfs remains quite paltry.

dws,

when i said hurricane kate earlier today....the nogaps looks strikling similar...

Hurricane Kate 1985


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kate_(1985)

[jconsor]

The NOGAPS and GFS are playing catchup regarding the upper pattern in North America - they are both too weak and too far east with the cutoff low over the eastern US by early-mid next week. The ECMWF and Canadian both have a much better handle. I don't think 97L is a certain recurve, but it's unlikely to affect any areas west of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, Bermuda and Nova Scotia. The upper pattern bears little resemblance to the one during Hurricane Kate:

http://hart.met.psu.edu/meteo497/cgi-bi ... ubmit=Plot

NEW GFS SEEMS TO BE FINALLY CATCHING ON THE ECMWF IDEA OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE OH VLY/APLCHNS BY MON/TUE. THE NEW CANADIAN CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT THE ECMWF/ECENS FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS...IN FACT IT
CLOSES OFF ITS UPPER LOW EVEN FARTHER W THAN CONSENSUS OF THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN CONSENSUS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. A COOL RAIN EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CONNECTION WITH THE ERN CLOSED UPPER LOW.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THAT SYS...BUT
TOTALS WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM THE CURRENT HEAVY RAIN EVEN
AFFECTING THE ERN SEABOARD STATES.

dws,

when i said hurricane kate earlier today....the nogaps looks strikling similar...

[dwsqos2]

The Euro is very weak through hour 144. I said this earlier, but I am going to laugh, a bitter laugh mind you, if much like a portion of July this somewhat favorable period of tropical forcing ends up producing nothing terribly significant.

[cycloneye]

For the record as it was not posted,here are the 06z tropical models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 010609
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0609 UTC FRI OCT 1 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20101001 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101001  0600   101001  1800   101002  0600   101002  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.9N  48.6W   16.0N  51.3W   16.8N  53.5W   17.5N  55.4W
BAMD    14.9N  48.6W   15.9N  50.9W   16.5N  52.5W   16.7N  53.5W
BAMM    14.9N  48.6W   15.9N  51.1W   16.7N  53.1W   17.2N  54.7W
LBAR    14.9N  48.6W   15.8N  51.4W   16.5N  53.9W   16.9N  56.0W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101003  0600   101004  0600   101005  0600   101006  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.1N  57.2W   19.1N  61.1W   20.6N  66.5W   22.2N  71.2W
BAMD    16.5N  54.3W   16.2N  55.2W   17.2N  57.1W   18.2N  60.2W
BAMM    17.4N  56.0W   17.7N  58.5W   19.2N  62.3W   21.8N  66.6W
LBAR    16.9N  57.9W   16.9N  60.7W   18.0N  62.0W   19.9N  60.8W
SHIP        45KTS          48KTS          49KTS          52KTS
DSHP        45KTS          48KTS          49KTS          52KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.9N LONCUR =  48.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  19KT
LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 =  44.7W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =  13.9N LONM24 =  40.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[Blown Away]

In 72 hours the TAFB has 97L brushing the NE Caribbean and then moving just north of PR and IMO be in a position to recurve before Bahamas and Florida.

[SouthFloridawx]

Anyone notice the difference in the Initialization of the 00Z and the 06Z Models? Further North and East...

00Z
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 53.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 49.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 11.6N LONM24 = 42.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

06Z
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 48.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 44.7W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 40.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

Recurve away from the se united states continues to look likely. It's already gaining lattitude

[SouthFloridawx]

Recurve away from the se united states continues to look likely. It's already gaining lattitude

It's not that it's gaining latitude. The models were initialized with the area to the West Yesterday and Last night. Now they are going with the one that is farther to the east.

[wxman57]

Anyone notice the difference in the Initialization of the 00Z and the 06Z Models? Further North and East...

That's what I've been saying, it's the crest of the wave to the east that we need to watch, not the area down south between the two waves.