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Blown Away
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Re: Re:

#141 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 01, 2010 1:34 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:


yeah I favor that over most of the others.. its in line with the GFS with the ridge holding,


After going over DR, Hispaniola, and Cuba there may not be much left if 97L follows the Nogaps track.
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#142 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 1:39 pm

Whats more probable in my opnion is "energy" and a "weak" low may spread west into the western carribean over the next week...this is common in October and could be the spark for more significant development later next week...
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#143 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 1:42 pm

12Z ECM places a broad low sw of PR in 3 days...The models GFS/ECM/Nogaps seem to all agree we will have low pressure spreading west across either the greater antilles and/or carribean....



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP072.gif
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#144 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 1:43 pm

By Saturday the upper air environment should begin to improve markedly from today....
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#145 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 2:00 pm

low splits...some heads NE towards DR and out to sea and the other towards the western/sw carribean
Something too much later next week...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif
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#146 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 2:01 pm

12Z ECM loop


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html
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#147 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 2:03 pm

NWS miami:

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS THE M/U TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH, THE ECMWF AND
GFS, INDICATE A DEVELOPING BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIB. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS IT FURTHER
NORTHWESTWARD THAN THE ECMWF (JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA).
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#148 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:13 pm

18Z NAM H36 slowly organizing over NE carribean






http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif
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#149 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:22 pm

H48 SE of PR...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif
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#150 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:32 pm

H60 pretty organized.....



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif
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#151 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:36 pm

H66 looking good...very favorable upper air envronment...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif
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#152 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:42 pm

H72 strengthening S of PR



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif
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#153 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:43 pm

yeah NAM is south this run like GFS
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#154 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:46 pm

I'm expecting by tomorrow afternoon we should see quite an increase in organized convection across the Leewards...
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#155 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:47 pm

H84 near hurricane strength....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif
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#156 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:48 pm

18Z NAM loop:



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Re:

#157 Postby kohlejgreene » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:48 pm

Vortex wrote:I'm expecting by tomorrow afternoon we should see quite an increase in organized convection across the Leewards...

hello TD
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#158 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:49 pm

If the NAM run verifies, big if there, Hispaniola would rip it up.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models

#159 Postby Vortex » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:58 pm

looking at the hi-res vis this afternoon the area just NE of guadeloupe looks very interesting and goes in line with where several of the models depict an llc may generate from...
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#160 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Oct 01, 2010 3:59 pm

Let me add I really hope the NAM doesn't verify as Haiti does not need a hurricane to set back their recovery efforts. I am so pleased that they have not had to deal with any hurricanes in this busy season.
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