What is the future of this season?

[KWT]

I am almost sure that breaching 160 ACE will be a struggle. All current modeling shows is a bunch of weak, short-lived storms.

All the models also only showed Karl getting to maybe a 55-60kts TS...all the models also showed Julia only ever getting to say 80-85kts...in the end I wouldn't put your faith in all the systems from the Caribbean weak...infact I'd put money on a major cane in October on even November, given we have an 81% chance historically of that being the case in a warm AMO La Nina I think I'd say the odds are good...

[FireRat]

Hi everyone, just joined the forum and wanted to see if anyone else here believes the last two months of the '10 season will bring big time events. I see how the La Nina is gaining strength and entering strong territory which combined with super warm temps in the Caribbean could yield a few major hurricanes in Oct. and Nov. I agree with KWT and would also put my money on a late season major storm or two. The way this year looks, even Late November...remember Lenny in 1999?...hmm, any thoughts?

[cycloneye]

With Nicole, now the season is at 14/7/5. IMO, October will add 3 and November will have one to get to the 18 that most of the experts had at their preseason forecasts.

[dwsqos2]

So, does anyone want to discuss that there may be building consensus for a trip to phase 5 of the MJO? That's not great for activity in Atlantic.

[Stormcenter]

This (number wise) may turn out to be true but it more then likely will not turn out to be
the season many feared. IMO

With Nicole, now the season is at 14/7/5. IMO, October will add 3 and November will have one to get to the 18 that most of the experts had at their preseason forecasts.

[gilbert88]

This (number wise) may turn out to be true but it more then likely will not turn out to be
the season many feared. IMO

Maybe for the US, assuming Florida does not get smashed in Oct., which is a distinct possibility with this type of season.

For the rest of the basin it was a pretty bad season, and for Mexico it was just horrible.

[srainhoutx]

This (number wise) may turn out to be true but it more then likely will not turn out to be
the season many feared. IMO

Maybe for the US, assuming Florida does not get smashed in Oct., which is a distinct possibility with this type of season.

For the rest of the basin it was a pretty bad season, and for Mexico it was just horrible.

I strongly agree!

[dwsqos2]

So, looking at the past few good global model (gfs, ecmwf, mabye ukmet) runs, it's beginning to feel like late season '07, at least from the perspective of lots noise but nothing particularly significant. Couple that with the potential for a fairly high amplitude phase 5 of the MJO, and the prospects for strong storms seem fairly remote, at least for a while.

[CrazyC83]

I'm going to go with 4/3/2 for the numbers in October. I think we will get a spurt of activity in mid-October.

As for November, I think we will get 1 more storm, a major hurricane. Final total of 19/11/8.

[HurrMark]

I am getting more confident we will make it a second season in a row without a US landfalling hurricane and the fifth in a row (first time since 1909-1915) without a major hurricane landfall. There doesn't appear to be much on the horizon for the next week, and anything that does form will likely recurve east of the US.

By the way, from 1986 to 2009 (24 seasons), there were only three US landfalling hurricanes after the first few days of October (Jerry in 1989, Irene in 1999 and Wilma in 2005). So the probabilities are going to rapidly drop soon.

Unless something changes in the next few weeks, I think 1990 will turn out to be an excellent analog season.

[Ptarmigan]

I am getting more confident we will make it a second season in a row without a US landfalling hurricane and the fifth in a row (first time since 1909-1915) without a major hurricane landfall. There doesn't appear to be much on the horizon for the next week, and anything that does form will likely recurve east of the US.

By the way, from 1986 to 2009 (24 seasons), there were only three US landfalling hurricanes after the first few days of October (Jerry in 1989, Irene in 1999 and Wilma in 2005). So the probabilities are going to rapidly drop soon.

Unless something changes in the next few weeks, I think 1990 will turn out to be an excellent analog season.

1990 was active, but only one major hurricane formed that year, which was Gustav. Also, 1990 was during a less active cycle from 1971 to 1994. 1990 was in a Neutral phase of ENSO. However, you do raise a good point about 1990 and 2010. No named storms hit America in 1990, like 2010 so far.

[Ptarmigan]

I'm going to go with 4/3/2 for the numbers in October. I think we will get a spurt of activity in mid-October.

As for November, I think we will get 1 more storm, a major hurricane. Final total of 19/11/8.

I have to go with 19/11/8 too. I predicted 19/11/5.

[Florida1118]

I am getting more confident we will make it a second season in a row without a US landfalling hurricane and the fifth in a row (first time since 1909-1915) without a major hurricane landfall. There doesn't appear to be much on the horizon for the next week, and anything that does form will likely recurve east of the US.

By the way, from 1986 to 2009 (24 seasons), there were only three US landfalling hurricanes after the first few days of October (Jerry in 1989, Irene in 1999 and Wilma in 2005). So the probabilities are going to rapidly drop soon.

Unless something changes in the next few weeks, I think 1990 will turn out to be an excellent analog season.

1990 was active, but only one major hurricane formed that year, which was Gustav. Also, 1990 was during a less active cycle from 1971 to 1994. 1990 was in a Neutral phase of ENSO. However, you do raise a good point about 1990 and 2010. No named storms hit America in 1990, like 2010 so far.

And Bonnie doesnt count?

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, I don't see this plethra of activity that was promised by some on this board, so I'm starting to think that the season might be wrapping up. Yes we had an active September, but from some of the comments I was reading on this forum in August, many thought the floodgates were going to open and we'd get lots of activity right on through late October or even early November....I just don't see it. I just see hostile conditions out there that aren't allowing potential waves to organize.

I wouldn't be shocked if we only have another 1 or 2 systems the rest of the season. I've see many seasons completely shut off by Ocotober, and the hostile conditions that I'm seeing out there seem to replicate those seasons that did turn off early......
It's still been an activie season no doubt, but not the "opening of the floodgates" by the middle of september than many had forecasted.

[gatorcane]

The rainy season may have ended in Florida this past week with the front that moved through....hmmmm. Usually when that happens season us over. By next week an even stronger front rolls through.

Still October is prime for south Florida hits so I think it's not over here yet.

[Weatherfreak000]

Well, I don't see this plethra of activity that was promised by some on this board, so I'm starting to think that the season might be wrapping up. Yes we had an active September, but from some of the comments I was reading on this forum in August, many thought the floodgates were going to open and we'd get lots of activity right on through late October or even early November....I just don't see it. I just see hostile conditions out there that aren't allowing potential waves to organize.

I wouldn't be shocked if we only have another 1 or 2 systems the rest of the season. I've see many seasons completely shut off by Ocotober, and the hostile conditions that I'm seeing out there seem to replicate those seasons that did turn off early......
It's still been an activie season no doubt, but not the "opening of the floodgates" by the middle of september than many had forecasted.

Your making this assertion on October 1st....I mean...alright. Good luck with that prediction and i'll be here to discuss after the fact why a ripe La Nina didn't produce the usual late season activity La Nina's are associated for. I believe also strong majors have landfalled in the GOM and the early season looking remarkably similar to ours thus far- all in October.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

This is the 1904 La Nina. Notice the late season tracks, and notice how common Opal-like hurricanes can be.

1910, SFL October Cat 3.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

The 1916 La Nina had an interesting October I think and I have noticed the tracks all start in the same place all the action is occuring now, the W Carb.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html
SFL monster


Alot of reason to believe this season is far from over.

[jinftl]

Excerpt from Dr. Jeff Master's outlook for the Atlantic this October...

October hurricane outlook
October is here, and it is time to take stock of where we stand and how far we have to go before hurricane season is over. The beginning of October traditionally marks the two-thirds point of hurricane season; approximately one-third of all hurricanes and 28% of named storms occur after October 1.

Tropical Storm Nicole brought us up to fourteen named storms for the year, and I expect about 4 - 5 more named storms this year with 2 - 3 of these being hurricanes. That would add up to 18 - 19 named storms for the season, putting 2010 in 3rd - 5th place all-time for most named storms. Since record keeping began in 1851, only four seasons have finished with more than eighteen named storms. These seasons were 2005 (28 named storms, with the 17th named storm, Rita, occurring by October 1); 1933 (21 named storms, with the 18th named storm occurring by October 1;) 1995 (19 named storms, with the 15th named storm, Opal, occurring by October 1;) and 1887 (19 named storms, with the 10th named storm occurring by October 1.)

The most likely time to get activity is during the first two weeks of October. There are still two weeks of peak hurricane season left before the activity traditionally begins to decline steeply (Figure 2.) Given the record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic this fall, the presence of La Niña in the Eastern Pacific keeping wind shear lower than average, and the observed increase in late-season activity in recent decades, I expect this year's peak portion of hurricane season will last until the end of October. I predict three named storms, two hurricanes, and one intense hurricane will form in the Atlantic this month, with two named storms and one hurricane occurring in November - December, making 2010 as the third busiest Atlantic hurricane season of all-time.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1641

[ConvergenceZone]

Your making this assertion on October 1st....I mean...alright. Good luck with that prediction and i'll be here to discuss after the fact why a ripe La Nina didn't produce the usual late season activity La Nina's are associated for. I believe also strong majors have landfalled in the GOM and the early season looking remarkably similar to ours thus far- all in October.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

This is the 1904 La Nina. Notice the late season tracks, and notice how common Opal-like hurricanes can be.

1910, SFL October Cat 3.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

The 1916 La Nina had an interesting October I think and I have noticed the tracks all start in the same place all the action is occuring now, the W Carb.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html
SFL monster

Alot of reason to believe this season is far from over.

Just remember Weatherfreak000, 2010 isn't all of those years that you mentioned. Every year is completely different, and who's to say that those years didn't have IDEAL conditions out int he Atlantic/Carib/Gulf for development. The conditions we are seeing out there right now are far from ideal.... You just can't say that just because those La Nina years were busier, automtically means that this year is going to be busier. Every year is completely different....
For example, just look at the last 3 weeks how difficult it's been for a wave to get going, EVEN THOUGH, the models were showing pretty robust development...

So when do you think the tropical floodgates are going to open? late October? November? December?

[jinftl]

I guess a starting point for gauging what is left to occur this season would be to look at climatology....in the average season, what % of named storms have occurred by October 1? Answer: 72% (see excerpt from Dr. Jeff Master's above for source of this data).

So if this season behaves like a typical season, we have 28% of the name systems still to go....with 14 named so far, that leaves between 5-6 according to what climatology says is the % left in a typical season. That would give us a total of 19-20 named storms by the time is all is said and done. That would make the season ranked the 3rd busiest since records have been kept (back to the year 1851).

Your making this assertion on October 1st....I mean...alright. Good luck with that prediction and i'll be here to discuss after the fact why a ripe La Nina didn't produce the usual late season activity La Nina's are associated for. I believe also strong majors have landfalled in the GOM and the early season looking remarkably similar to ours thus far- all in October.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

This is the 1904 La Nina. Notice the late season tracks, and notice how common Opal-like hurricanes can be.

1910, SFL October Cat 3.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

The 1916 La Nina had an interesting October I think and I have noticed the tracks all start in the same place all the action is occuring now, the W Carb.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html
SFL monster

Alot of reason to believe this season is far from over.

Just remember Weatherfreak000, 2010 isn't all of those years that you mentioned. Every year is completely different, and who's to say that those years didn't have IDEAL conditions out int he Atlantic/Carib/Gulf for development. The conditions we are seeing out there right now are far from ideal.... You just can't say that just because those La Nina years were busier, automtically means that this year is going to be busier. Every year is completely different....
For example, just look at the last 3 weeks how difficult it's been for a wave to get going, EVEN THOUGH, the models were showing pretty robust development...

So when do you think the tropical floodgates are going to open? late October? November? December?

[HurrMark]

I am getting more confident we will make it a second season in a row without a US landfalling hurricane and the fifth in a row (first time since 1909-1915) without a major hurricane landfall. There doesn't appear to be much on the horizon for the next week, and anything that does form will likely recurve east of the US.

By the way, from 1986 to 2009 (24 seasons), there were only three US landfalling hurricanes after the first few days of October (Jerry in 1989, Irene in 1999 and Wilma in 2005). So the probabilities are going to rapidly drop soon.

Unless something changes in the next few weeks, I think 1990 will turn out to be an excellent analog season.

1990 was active, but only one major hurricane formed that year, which was Gustav. Also, 1990 was during a less active cycle from 1971 to 1994. 1990 was in a Neutral phase of ENSO. However, you do raise a good point about 1990 and 2010. No named storms hit America in 1990, like 2010 so far.

Well, I picked 1990 because most storms went out to sea, except Diana, which was a Mexico hit, Bertha, which was a Nova Scotia hit and Marco, which was a Florida hit (as a depression, but only 5 mph less than Bonnie). So there were more landfalls this year, but the areas where the hits occurred were the same. There were actually more hurricanes in 1990 after 14 storms (8 vs. 7), although yes, there were more majors this year.

1990 was essentially an active season, but quiet on the US mainland...just like 2010.