ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Stephanie]

Well after 23.01 inches of rain since Sunday Night, the rain finally stopped about an hour ago.

Are you and your family and home alright?

[emeraldislencguy]

the rain has finally stopped lol

[hurricanedude]

16.25 inches of rain today alone at NAS NORFOLK!!!
FLooding Galore all over southeast virginia

[srainhoutx]

16.25 inches of rain today alone at NAS NORFOLK!!!
FLooding Galore all over southeast virginia

That's an impressive one day total!

[HurricaneBelle]

Tropical Storm conditions at Hatteras - sustained winds in the upper 30s and gusts into the 50s and 60s.

[hurricanedude]

hate to bust everyones bubble....but JB was right on
Buxton/ Nags Head sustained wind of 51 MPH gusts to nearly 70
81.4 °F
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 51.0 mph from the North
Gust: 67 mph
Pressure: 29.53 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 89 °F
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16

[hurricanedude]

an intense squall went through NAS NORFOLK....now 17.87 inches for the day......MASSIVE AND LIFE THREATENING FLOODS IN NORFOLK, VA.

[hurricanedude]

even Norfolk Int'L aproaching 10 inches

[Danny MD]

I think we can all agree that this storm was even worse then expected, catching many by suprise. I for one know that at this time yesterday the rain was forcast to have stopped in Washington DC.

Now not only has it not stopped, we are forcast to get another 2 or 3 inches and now Significant flooding is expected.

My question to you all is why were the weather models wrong? Was the rain more intense or did this storm stall out and go slower then expected?

[hurricanedude]

actually Nicole is the reason....it never dissipated so its moisture got caugt up and nearly tripled the amounts expected....no one expected 20-25 inches in 4 days in Wilmington, NC and in Norfolk, VA

[hurricanedude]

TS conditions in VA BEACH
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station
Lat: 36.83 Lon: -76.03 Elev: 26
Last Update on Sep 30, 10:56 pm EDT


Rain Fog/Mist and Windy

75 °F
(24 °C) Humidity: 90 %
Wind Speed: W 40 G 55 MPH
Barometer: 29.48" (998.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 72 °F (22 °C)

[Sanibel]

Tropical energy takes strange forms. The monsoon trough failed to pan out in winds but showed up in rain.

17 inches of rain is serious business.

[wxman57]

hate to bust everyones bubble....but JB was right on
Buxton/ Nags Head sustained wind of 51 MPH gusts to nearly 70
81.4 °F
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 51.0 mph from the North
Gust: 67 mph
Pressure: 29.53 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 89 °F
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16

Problem is, I cannot find any low center in the observations. What I see is a very strong SE-SSE jet ahead of the cold front that stretches all the way from east of the Bahamas to New England. West of the front, winds are much lighter and out of the NW. That wind you reported can't be from the north. Buxton/Hatteras/Nags Head are all reporting southerly winds and have all day. I've taken a look at all the obs across eastern NC and they're all from the SE or SSE. Here's the last 12 hours out of Buxton (below). I see gusts to 51 kts, and I'm sure there were areas with stronger gusts. However, this is not a tropical storm. It's tropical air, that's for sure, but a tropical storm requires more than just strong wind coming from a single direction ahead of/along a cold front. There's just no turning in the wind except across the front.

KHSE| |010307|80.0F|78.0F|94.3%|160|031|048|29.50|999|OVC|Heavy Rain , Mist
KHSE| |010304|80.0F|78.0F|94.3%|170|036|048|29.50|999|OVC|Light Rain , Mist
KHSE| |010259|82.0F|77.0F|83.8%|160|029|046|29.50|999|OVC|Light Rain
KHSE| |010251|82.0F|77.0F|84.8%|160|030|047|29.50|8|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |010238|82.0F|77.0F|83.8%|160|031|048|29.51|999|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |010217|80.0F|77.0F|88.9%|160|034|047|29.51|999|OVC|Light Rain , Mist
KHSE| |010151|82.0F|77.0F|84.8%|160|029|047|29.50|999|OVC|Light Rain
KHSE| |010141|82.0F|75.0F|79.0%|160|032|046|29.51|999|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |010103|82.0F|77.0F|83.8%|160|032|044|29.53|999|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |010051|82.0F|75.9F|81.8%|160|032|051|29.53|999|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |302351|82.0F|75.9F|81.8%|160|033|046|29.53|6|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |302251|82.0F|75.9F|81.8%|150|027|036|29.54|999|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |302233|82.0F|75.0F|79.0%|150|026|037|29.55|999|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |302219|82.0F|75.0F|79.0%|150|028|045|29.55|999|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |302151|82.9F|75.9F|79.5%|150|026|039|29.56|999|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |302051|82.9F|75.9F|79.5%|160|022|040|29.58|7|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |302001|82.0F|75.0F|79.0%|160|027|037|29.60|999|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |301951|82.9F|75.9F|79.5%|150|027|037|29.60|999|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |301943|82.0F|75.0F|79.0%|160|028|037|29.60|999|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |301930|82.0F|77.0F|83.8%|150|027|037|29.60|999|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |301912|80.0F|77.0F|88.9%|160|027|040|29.60|999|OVC|Mist
KHSE| |301905|80.0F|78.0F|94.3%|160|029|040|29.60|999|OVC|Light Rain , Mist
KHSE| |301900|78.0F|77.0F|94.2%|170|020|031|29.61|999|OVC|Light Rain , Fog
KHSE| |301853|82.0F|78.0F|88.9%|180|022|032|29.61|999|OVC|Heavy Rain , Mist
KHSE| |301851|82.9F|77.0F|82.4%|160|023|036|29.61|999|OVC|Light Rain
KHSE| |301835|84.0F|75.0F|74.5%|160|026|039|29.61|999|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |301813|84.0F|77.0F|79.1%|160|027|035|29.62|999|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |301751|84.9F|77.0F|77.3%|160|027|037|29.63|8|OVC|Haze
KHSE| |301739|84.0F|77.0F|79.1%|160|026|038|29.63|999|OVC|Haze

[wxman57]

TS conditions in VA BEACH
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station
Lat: 36.83 Lon: -76.03 Elev: 26
Last Update on Sep 30, 10:56 pm EDT


Rain Fog/Mist and Windy

75 °F
(24 °C) Humidity: 90 %
Wind Speed: W 40 G 55 MPH
Barometer: 29.48" (998.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 72 °F (22 °C)

Virginia Beach shows what looks like a frontal passage about 90 minutes ago. Obs shifted from SE to W to NW over a period of 15-20 minutes as the front passed through. That wind from 260 deg at 35 gusting 48 appeared to be from a heavy squall that passed ahead of the front. It lasted for a very brief period. It's a bad storm but it's not a tropical storm by any stretch of the imagination. I like JB, watch him every day, but he's wrong on this one. We did predict SE winds of 40-50 kts from NC to Long Island and quite a lot of rain with this system, but not from a tropical storm, by the way.

KNTU| |010319|69.0F|68.0F|94.0%|350|006|000|29.51|999|OVC|Heavy Rain , Mist
KNTU| |010256|70.0F|69.1F|97.0%|320|007|000|29.51|5|OVC|Light Rain
KNTU|SP|010247|69.0F|68.0F|94.0%|320|008|000|29.51|999|OVC|Light Rain
KNTU|SP|010230|69.0F|68.0F|94.0%|310|010|000|29.52|999|OVC|Light Rain , Mist
KNTU|SP|010208|69.0F|68.0F|94.0%|300|018|037|29.51|999|OVC|Heavy Rain , Mist
KNTU| |010156|75.0F|72.0F|90.2%|260|035|048|29.48|999|OVC|Rain , Mist
KNTU|SP|010142|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|140|019|032|29.46|999|OVC|Light Rain , Mist
KNTU| |010056|75.9F|73.0F|90.8%|130|017|026|29.50|999|OVC|
KNTU|SP|010043|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|140|015|025|29.51|999|OVC|Mist
KNTU|SP|010010|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|140|014|022|29.53|999|OVC|Light Rain , Mist
KNTU| |302356|75.9F|73.9F|93.6%|150|014|025|29.54|6|OVC|
KNTU| |302348|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|140|016|026|29.54|999|OVC|Mist
KNTU| |302334|77.0F|73.0F|88.7%|150|016|024|29.55|999|OVC|Light Rain , Mist
KNTU| |302256|77.0F|73.0F|87.6%|150|015|021|29.56|999|OVC|
KNTU| |302156|77.0F|73.9F|90.3%|150|016|022|29.57|999|OVC|Mist
KNTU| |302135|78.0F|73.0F|83.6%|160|014|022|29.58|999|OVC|Mist
KNTU| |302056|73.9F|72.0F|93.6%|000|004|000|29.59|5|OVC|Light Rain , Mist
KNTU|SP|302016|77.0F|75.0F|94.2%|210|008|020|29.60|999|OVC|Heavy Rain , Mist

[wxman57]

I think we can all agree that this storm was even worse then expected, catching many by suprise. I for one know that at this time yesterday the rain was forcast to have stopped in Washington DC.

Now not only has it not stopped, we are forcast to get another 2 or 3 inches and now Significant flooding is expected.

My question to you all is why were the weather models wrong? Was the rain more intense or did this storm stall out and go slower then expected?

Most of the rain occurred before remnants of Nicole even reached the Mid Atlantic Coast. The reason for the heavy rain is a stationary front across the area. Very strong southerly flow ahead of the front over about a 1000 mile stretch of the ocean pumped considerable moisture into the area. Training thunderstorms dumped a tremendous amount of rain across the area. And then, moisture from the remnants of Nicole, a deep tropical plume of moisture began feeding up the front, as can be seen on the MIMIC TPW loop:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Models did a pretty good job in forecasting this, actually. They certainly had a bullseye of rain across the region, though the totals predicted were only 8-10 inches for the most part. And the wind was predicted by the models as well. We had SE-S wind of 40-50 kts in our forecasts for clients up the East Coast. Hard to predict the effect of training echoes over a single location, rainfall-wise, though.

[jconsor]

I agree with you about no circulation/turning aside from the frontal systems up until about 6 hours ago, but in recent hours the circulation has become much better defined:

http://weather.cod.edu/loops/atsfc.loop.html

Also, there are clearly 2 different lows. The stronger one near Hatteras is associated with the remnants of Nicole, while the one further north over Chesapeake Bay is not.

[jconsor]

NAS Norfolk has only had 2.98" of rain for Thursday - most of the day had dry conditions or light rain. Not sure where you're getting these numbers from.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... story.html

Norfolk Airport (KORF) is a different story, with over 7".

http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... story.html

an intense squall went through NAS NORFOLK....now 17.87 inches for the day......MASSIVE AND LIFE THREATENING FLOODS IN NORFOLK, VA.

[Jevo]

NAS Norfolk has only had 2.98" of rain for Thursday - most of the day had dry conditions or light rain. Not sure where you're getting these numbers from.

It is possible he had 'The Day after Tomorrow' on instead of the news..... It happens

[brunota2003]

Here is an unofficial summary from Newport/Morehead City, NC:

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
148 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECENT STORM
AFFECTING THE REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY
DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE AND COCORAHS OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NEWPORT

********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                     RAINFALL       OF
                     (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT


NORTH CAROLINA

...BEAUFORT COUNTY...
   WASHINGTON           16.03   836 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 7.6 SE
   AURORA               15.66   856 AM  10/1   COOP

...CARTERET COUNTY...
   CEDAR POINT          19.34   827 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 0.7 NNE
   NEWPORT WFO          14.54   859 AM  10/1   NWS OFFICE
   NEWPORT              14.30   840 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 0.2 SW
   MOREHEAD CITY        13.59   840 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 2.9 WNW
   HARKERS ISLAND       13.26   841 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 3.2 NE
   BEAUFORT             13.92  1000 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 5.3 N
   BEAUFORT             12.41   857 AM  10/1   ASOS
   MOREHEAD CITY        12.09   842 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 0.6 NW
   NEWPORT              11.89   843 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 7.5 E
   BEAUFORT             10.05   847 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 5.3 N

...CRAVEN COUNTY...
   TRENT WOODS          20.26   827 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 1.3 SSE
   NEW BERN             18.83   829 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 1.3 NNE
   JAMES CITY           18.26  1000 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 0.3 SSE
   NEW BERN             17.51  1000 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 4.9 SSE
   HAVELOCK             17.42   831 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 2.7 S
   BRIDGETON            16.61   831 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 1.6 W
   HAVELOCK             16.05   833 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 3.1 NW
   JAMES CITY           16.00   837 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 2.5 S
   CHERRY POINT         15.01   800 AM  10/1   ASOS
   NEW BERN             14.93   859 AM  10/1   ASOS

...DARE COUNTY...
   HATTERAS              6.87   857 AM  10/1   ASOS
   FRISCO                6.00   900 AM  10/1   COOP

...DUPLIN COUNTY...
   DUPLIN COUNTY        10.88   853 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 9.6 ESE

...LENOIR COUNTY...
   KINSTON              14.75   854 AM  10/1   COOP

...MARTIN COUNTY...
   WILLIAMSTON          19.10   901 AM  10/1   COOP

...ONSLOW COUNTY...
   SWANSBORO            21.65   824 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 3.3 NW
   JACKSONVILLE         17.75   855 AM  10/1   COOP
   NEW RIVER            15.21   858 AM  10/1   ASOS

...PAMLICO COUNTY...
   BAYBORO              15.31   855 AM  10/1   COOP
   ORIENTAL             11.24   915 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 2.1 WSW
   ORIENTAL             10.95   915 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 3.4 NE

...PITT COUNTY...
   AYDEN                19.10   828 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 5.0 E
   WINTERVILLE          18.28   830 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 4.3 ESE
   GREENVILLE           16.14   832 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 1.4 SE
   GREENVILLE           15.94   838 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 1.1 S
   WINTERVILLE          14.49   838 AM  10/1   COCORAHS 3.5 W

***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************

LOCATION            PEAK WIND    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                         GUST       OF
                        (MPH)   MEASUREMENT


NORTH CAROLINA

...BEAUFORT COUNTY...
   WASHINGTON              33   942 AM  9/30   MESOWEST

...CARTERET COUNTY...
   BEAUFORT                56   656 PM  9/30   ASOS
   EMERALD ISLE            55   830 PM  9/29   SPOTTER
   PINEY ISLAND            47   719 PM  9/30   MESOWEST

...CRAVEN COUNTY...
   CHERRY POINT            51   956 AM  9/30   ASOS
   NEW BERN                38   910 AM  9/30   ASOS

...DARE COUNTY...
   HATTERAS                60   831 PM  9/30   ASOS
   MANTEO                  49  1143 PM  9/30   MESOWEST
   KILL DEVIL HILLS        41   940 PM  9/30   MESOWEST

...DUPLIN COUNTY...
   KENANSVILLE             26   839 AM  9/30   MESOWEST

...LENOIR COUNTY...
   KINSTON                 32   955 AM  9/30   MESOWEST

...ONSLOW COUNTY...
   NEW RIVER               53   818 AM  9/30   ASOS
   SWANSBORO               52  1225 PM  9/30   MESOWEST
   JACKSONVILLE            39  1255 PM  9/30   MESOWEST

...PITT COUNTY...
   GREENVILLE              36  1000 AM  9/30   MESOWEST

$$
DAG/GCW/JRS


http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/Text/PNS/20 ... nEvent.txt

[Stephanie]

All I can say is that New Jersey was spared the majority of the rainfall. There are reports of up to 5 inches of rain at the most. We received the makeup moisture that we needed from 2 months of extremely dry conditions, but did not get the extreme flooding and damage.