Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
859 PM AST SAT OCT 2 2010

PRZ001>008-012-013-VIZ001-002-031900-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.A.0012.101003T0600Z-101004T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-CULEBRA-
VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...
ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...
FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
859 PM AST SAT OCT 2 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM AST SUNDAY THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...
EASTERN INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...PONCE
AND VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST AND VIEQUES. IN
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

* FROM 2 AM AST SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

* A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WEST
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE CONTINUED MAINTENANCE AND
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO REACH THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THE
EASTERN END OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE
REST OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

* SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT THIS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EMBEDDED IN AREA OF EXTREMELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
IS PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS AN INCH AND HALF PER
HOUR. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW. GIVEN THE VERY
SATURATED CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THIS SYSTEM
POSES A THREAT OF MODERATE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. MODERATE
FLOODING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LARGER
RIVERS WITH INUNDATION OF STRUCTURES AND ROADS NEAR STREAMS AND
RIVERS IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ONLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ADDRESSED IN THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

SR/WS

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
923 PM AST SAT OCT 2 2010

.UPDATE...SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA AND AN ADJOINING PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. LATEST SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL INCREASING
BEING MEASURED AT 2.52 INCHES AND CONFIRMED BY THE SOUNDER WHICH
REGISTERED NEAR 2.4 INCHES. LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST...WITH CONVECTION DIEING FOR THE
MOMENT. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TOMORROW WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND AREAS OF FLOODING...HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH
CONTINUES THROUGH 2 AM AST MONDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS WATCH
WILL BE EXTENDED AT SOME TIME IN THE FUTURE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL RIVERS ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
BUT RIVERS ARE EITHER STILL WELL BELOW FLOOD LEVEL OR FALLING. AT
THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT AS RAINFALL TAPERS OFF...BUT RAINFALL MAY MOVE INTO THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT PUERTO RICO SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPORARY MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE VI...TNCM...AND TKPK THROUGH 03/12Z IN A PASSING SHRA OR
TSRA. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJPS AND
TJSJ...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED TJBQ AND TJMZ. AFT
03/12Z...MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL TAF SITES...WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE ALL PR TAF SITES AFT 03/16Z. PREVAILING EASTERLY LLVL
WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS NEAR
+TSRAS AND +SHRAS.

[tropicana]

Regional Highs and Rainfall (if any) for
Sat Oct 2 2010

(rainfall is 8pm Fri-8pmET Sat)

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 32.4C 90F
Maraval, NW Trinidad 28.8C 84F
Crown Point, Tobago 29.1C 84F 0.3mm

Point Salines, Grenada 27.5C 82F 12.6mm
Arnos Vale, St Vincent 30.8C 87F 0.7mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 28.4C 83F 3.8mm
Rockley, S Barbados 29.1C 84F 1.3mm
Long Bay, SE Barbados 28.6C 84F 1.3mm

Golden Rock, St Kitts 30.6C 87F 2.5mm
VC Bird, Antigua 30.3C 86F 13.1mm
West End, Anguilla 30.3C 86F 15.0mm
Charlotte Amalie, St Thomas 30.6C 87F 0.3mm
Julianna Airport, St Maarten 30.9C 88F 5.7mm
San Juan, Puerto Rico 31.1C 88F

Owen Roberts, Grand Cayman 31.3C 88F trace
Kingston, Jamaica 29.9C 86F 19.0mm
Montego Bay, Jamaica 30.6C 87F 10.0mm
Havana, Cuba 29.8C 86F
Nassau, Bahamas 31.8C 89F
Hamilton, Bermuda 28.0C 82F

Hato, Curacao 31.0C 88F
Queen Beatrix. Aruba 31.4C 88F
Flamingo Airport, Bonaire 30.9C 88F

-justin-

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The big rain event is almost here.Lets see how it all evolves.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...MID UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES OVR THE
LEEWARDS AND THE ADJACENT ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS IS FCST TO
MOVE TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MAY
STILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE ARE TWO
MAIN CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ONE EAST OF THE LEEWARDS AND
ANOTHER ONE WEST OF MARTINIQUE. SURFACE OBS FROM BUOYS...SHIPS AND
LAND STATIONS SHOW THAT PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN OVR THE PAST SIX HOURS AND AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 0113Z SHOWED WESTERLY WINDS IN THAT AREA SUGGESTING THAT A
BROAD WEAK SFC LOW MAY DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA. DEFINITELY...NOT
ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SAY THAT A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS FORMING BUT
THIS AREA SEEMS THE ONE TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION AS MAJORITY OF
NCEP MEMBERS INDICATE SOMETHING DEVELOPING OUT OF THAT AREA IN THE
72-96 TIME FRAME.

LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AREA HAS MOISTENED UP
SIGNIFICANTLY OVR THE PAST 12 HRS WITH PW VALUES NOW RUNNING
BETWEEN 2.75 AND 3.0 INCHES. THINGS SHOULD GET GOING QUITE RAPIDLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS MORNING SUNSHINE DESTABILIZES THINGS RATHER
QUICKLY AND WITH AID OF LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACH OF SFC TROF.

WOULD EXPECT THINGS TO GET VERY ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION STARTS GETTING BETTER DEFINED. EVEN IF NOT SFC OR MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN MCS TYPE DEVELOPMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING GIVEN EXTREMELY HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW
MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION.

GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF MODEL THE PAST FIVE DAYS AND
THAT MORE NCEP MEMBERS ARE SHOWING AT LEAST SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT
AM BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT WILL
OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS FALLING BETWEEN MONDAY AND WED. EVEN
AFTER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA....ECMWF
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING STRONG SW FLOW UP TO 50 KTS AT
H85 WITH HIGH K INDICES AND PW VALUES SUGGESTING THAT RAINS COULD
PERSIST THROUGH FRI. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ON THE WEATHER IS NOT
UNTIL NEXT SAT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS SHORT TERM FLOODING
UNDER FLOOD MESSAGE AND FLOODING FROM MON AND THE REST OF THE WEEK
ON HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH 03/15Z. AFT 03/15Z...MVFR
CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ALL TAF SITES...WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE AT ALL PR TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE RAISED SEAS TO 8-9 FT ACROSS OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS BASED
ON BUOYS 41041 AND 41043.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 78 / 90 90 90 90
STT 87 80 87 80 / 90 90 90 90

[caribsue]

This is what happened in Barbados on Friday afternoon. Thank God it had a happy ending.

The skies are still grey here this morning and there are rumbles of thunder in the distance. Wind is still out of the south.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gajn8X3u ... r_embedded

Be vigilant and stay safe.

[cycloneye]

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
615 AM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH TIME AS IT
PASSES SOUTH OR NEAR PUERTO RICO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE NECESSARY FORCING TO
GENERATE HEAVY AND PERSISTENT RAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
HIGHER OR LESSER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK
AND HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE THE ENTIRE WEEK LOOKS PRETTY WET AND UNSETTLED IT APPEARS
THAT THE PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND SAINT CROIX. EVEN AFTER
THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND MAY STILL BE
ABLE TO GENERATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT TO THE WEATHER CONDITIONS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY.

GIVEN THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS EVENT AND THE VERY WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THIS EVENT POSES A THREAT OF MUD AND
DEBRIS FLOWS AND OF AT LEAST MODERATE FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING
MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS
WITH INUNDATION OF STRUCTURES AND ROADS NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS IS
EXPECTED. THIS EVENT ALSO POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND
PROPERTY ESPECIALLY IN FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

$$
ROSA

[Gustywind]

Look at huge blob of very heavy convection just near the Windwards:Leewards Guadeloupe ! The afternoon should be pretty stormy if this feature crosses the area...

[Gustywind]

[abajan]

If that heavy convection keeps spreading our way, the forecast below may need some adjustment:



Source: http://www.cdera.org/weather/barbados/index.php
Image uploaded via ImageShack

[cycloneye]

Finnally, after more than 24 hours out,the San Juan NWS radar is in operation again. And we need it at this moment as the rain event takes shape.

[msbee]

Look at huge blob of very heavy convection just near the Windwards:Leewards Guadeloupe ! The afternoon should be pretty stormy if this feature crosses the area...

that's a lot of "blobs" and "blobettes" out there Gusty

[msbee]

Finnally, after more than 24 hours out,the San Juan NWS radar is in operation again. And we need it at this moment as the rain event takes shape.

that's good news Luis
why does that radar always go out when you most need it?

[cycloneye]

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
845 AM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

AMZ732-031545-
845 AM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS...

AT 835 AM AST...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A LARGE CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES...OVER
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N...OR ABOUT 56 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA VIENTO...MOVING WEST AT 20 KNOTS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN
WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL
OBJECTS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN
EASILY OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE
HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 1700 6737 1772 6736 1767 6417 1700 6418

$$

ER/BCS

[Gustywind]

Look at huge blob of very heavy convection just near the Windwards:Leewards Guadeloupe ! The afternoon should be pretty stormy if this feature crosses the area...

that's a lot of "blobs" and "blobettes" out there Gusty

You're right Barbara don't like them so close of our islands. Big burst can occur at anytime soon. Lets be aware and vigilant!

[cycloneye]

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1106 AM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WERE NOTED...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WIND WAS MAINLY NORTHEAST
AT LESS THAN 15 MPH.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...RESULTING IN AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING...AND
MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...SEAS OF 4 TO 9 FEET AND WINDS UP TO
19 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REMAINING LOCAL WATERS.

$$

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1214 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

.UPDATE...THANKFULLY...THE WSR-88D AND TDWR BOTH HAVE RETURNED TO
SERVICE. EXPECT VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
WEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME MINOR
LOW LYING FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN A FEW LOCATIONS. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO REFER TO SJUFFASJU AND SJUESFSJU FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THE UPCOMING EXPECTED...LONG DURATION RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FLOODING EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR IN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

[Macrocane]

Hi! It has been a beautiful day in El Salvador especially because we have the first "northerly winds" event of the season, this time we there's no cold front so the temperatures are not going to change that much but the winds feel really nice and San Salvador had its coolest morning in 2 months with a minimum temperature of 19.3 °C (66.7°F).

At the moment San Salvador is experiencing winds up to 20 km/h (12.5 mph), Guatemla city 30 km/h (19 mph) and Tegucigalpa 25 km/h (15 mph).

[cycloneye]

Flash Flood Watch extended to 4 AM Tuesday

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
112 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-040515-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FF.A.0012.000000T0000Z-101005T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
112 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM AST TUESDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...
EASTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY...NORTH CENTRAL...
NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...PONCE AND VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND
VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST...VIEQUES AND WESTERN INTERIOR.
IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT
ISLANDS.

* THROUGH 4 AM AST TUESDAY...

* INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AN EXTREMELY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF TODAY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTAIN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THAT COULD TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

* IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ONLY
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...AND THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE
LATEST HYDROLOGIC AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY
RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

&&

$$

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
138 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

PRC043-055-059-075-111-113-121-123-133-153-031930-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0451.101003T1738Z-101003T1930Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-YAUCO PR-GUAYANILLA PR-GUANICA PR-
JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-SALINAS PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-PENUELAS PR-
138 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...SABANA GRANDE...YAUCO...GUAYANILLA...GUANICA...JUANA
DIAZ...PONCE...SALINAS...SANTA ISABEL AND PENUELAS

* UNTIL 330 PM AST

* AT 135 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAD FALLEN FROM SALINAS WESTWARD TO GUAYANILLA. THIS SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1814 6698 1809 6633 1797 6628 1795 6696

$$

ER/BCS