Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

PRC023-055-067-079-097-125-032045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0452.101003T1848Z-101003T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-SAN GERMAN PR-GUANICA PR-CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
LAJAS PR-
248 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...SAN GERMAN...GUANICA...CABO ROJO...MAYAGUEZ AND
LAJAS

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 242 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAD FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF SAN GERMAN...LAJAS AND
CABO ROJO. THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING RAPID RISES IN SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AAS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...
STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1822 6716 1815 6699 1794 6696 1795 6722

$$

ER/

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

PRC001-013-039-054-091-101-141-145-032145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0453.101003T1855Z-101003T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-MOROVIS PR-UTUADO PR-MANATI PR-
VEGA BAJA PR-ARECIBO PR-
255 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...FLORIDA...ADJUNTAS...MOROVIS...UTUADO...MANATI...VEGA
BAJA AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 250 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING MOST OF
THESE MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S. RAIN GAGES
INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS
OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH 545 PM. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS...AND FLOODING OR
PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1833 6679 1841 6643 1833 6640 1823 6679

$$

BCS

[cycloneye]

A wet,wet,wet forecast for next few days

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS...
AFFECTED PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE DROPPED OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A FEW
LOCAL AREAS ACROSS SAN GERMAN...PONCE...CIALES AND UTUADO. OTHER
AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS RECEIVED BETWEEN 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGAN TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS
PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR AND CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THIS
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE PATTERN ACROSS LOCAL REGION AT LEAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE MONDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. BECAUSE OF THIS SCENARIO...WE EXPECT
PERIODS OF INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD TRIGGER
FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCUR AND
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS PROLONGED EVENT WILL RANGED BETWEEN 6 TO 10
WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ON THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION IS NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST UNTIL
NEXT SAT.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
MVFR AND EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR IN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 9 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 14 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS...BUT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 88 / 90 90 90 90
STT 80 87 80 87 / 90 90 90 90

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

PRC007-009-019-025-035-041-043-045-047-063-105-107-129-149-032145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0454.101003T1955Z-101003T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-CIDRA PR-COAMO PR-CAYEY PR-COROZAL PR-COMERIO PR-
AIBONITO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-GURABO PR-OROCOVIS PR-
NARANJITO PR-SAN LORENZO PR-VILLALBA PR-
355 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...CIDRA...COAMO...CAYEY...COROZAL...COMERIO...AIBONITO...
AGUAS BUENAS...BARRANQUITAS...GURABO...OROCOVIS...NARANJITO...
SAN LORENZO AND VILLALBA

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 352 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIORS OF
PUERTO RICO. TEMPORARILY REDUCED VISIBILITIES...PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING AREAS...AND THE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST 545 PM AST.
IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1828 6635 1826 6594 1813 6602 1812 6653

$$

SR

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

PRC023-067-097-041530-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0032.101003T2139Z-101004T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
539 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CABO ROJO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
HORMIGUEROS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MAYAGUEZ MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 1130 AM AST MONDAY

* AT 532 PM AST RIVER GAGES ON THE GUANAJIBO RIVER INDICATED THAT
SUFFICIENT WATER WAS MOVING DOWN STREAM TO SEND THE GUANAJIBO RIVER
INTO FLOOD BEFORE MIDNIGHT AST.

* THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST DURING THE MORNING MONDAY BETWEEN
20 AND 22 FEET. CRESTS OF THIS HEIGHT TYPICALLY FLOOD SOME
RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN HORMIGUEROS.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 1818 6718 1816 6711 1808 6712 1807 6719

$$

SNELL

[cycloneye]

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
634 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONTINUES TO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS BOTH
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH MID
WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE
WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED...WHICH WILL HELP
TO MAINTAIN THE NECESSARY FORCING TO GENERATE HEAVY AND PERSISTENT
RAINFALL ACROSS BOTH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK.

WHILE THE ENTIRE WEEK LOOKS PRETTY WET AND UNSETTLED...IT APPEARS
THAT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND SAINT
CROIX. EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...COMPUTER
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AND MAY GENERATE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO THE WEATHER CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

GIVEN THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS EVENT AND THE VERY WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THIS EVENT POSES A THREAT OF MUD AND
DEBRIS FLOWS AND OF AT LEAST MODERATE FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING
MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS
WITH INUNDATION OF STRUCTURES AND ROADS NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS IS
EXPECTED. THIS EVENT ALSO POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND
PROPERTY ESPECIALLY AREAS PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION AVAILABLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. FOR SHORT TERM FLOODING POTENTIAL...PLEASE
REFER TO LATEST FLOOD MESSAGE AVAILABLE FROM OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN.

$$

SR/WS

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
749 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

PRC013-040745-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0034.101003T2349Z-101004T0745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ARECIBO PR-
749 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
ARECIBO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 345 AM AST MONDAY

* AT 651 PM AST WATER WAS FLOWING 1 FOOT OVER THE SPILLWAY AT LAGO
DOS BOCAS AND THE RIVER GAGE NEAR SAN PEDRO ON THE RIO GRANDE DE
ARECIBO SHOWED THAT THE RIVER HAD GONE INTO FLOOD.

WATER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS MORE
AND FLOODING IS EXPECTED...AND IS LIKELY IN PROGRESS...IN BARRIOS
DOMINGO RUIZ...ARENA LEJOS...MIRA FLORES AND ARROZAL LOS MUERTOS.
THE RIVER WILL ALSO BE OUT OF ITS BANKS IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF
ARECIBO WITH FLOODING ON ROAD 123 AT KILOMETER 61.6.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6676 1848 6668 1834 6664 1833 6669

$$

SNELL

[tropicana]

Regional Rainfall and Highs for
Sun Oct 3 2010
(rainfall 8pm Sat-8pm Sun)

Piarco Airport, Trinidad 35.3C 95F
Grantley Adams, Barbados XX 18.2mm
Rockley, S. Barbados 30.4C 86F 51.1mm (rainfall 12am-12am)
Long Beach, SE Barbados 30.0C 86F 32.0mm (rainfall 12am to 12am)
Point Salines, Grenada XX 72.0mm
Arnos Vale, St vincent 29.6C 85F 60.0mm
Golden Rock, St Kitts 29.7C 86F 13.4mm

San Juan, Puerto Rico 30.0C 86F 3.3mm
Nassau, Bahamas 29.3C 85F 27.0mm
Hamilton, Bermuda 27.8C 82F 0.8mm

Hato Airport, Curacao XX 15.0mm (to 2pm)
Queen Beatrix, Aruba XX 17mm (to 2pm)

-justin-

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
956 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

.UPDATE...CONVECTION CONTINUES...MAINLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TO THE EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING WEST.
WINDS...FROM THE LAND STATIONS THAT ARE REPORTING...HAVE BEEN
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. THAT SAID HOWEVER...WINDS FROM BUOY 42060 TO THE
SOUTHEAST HAVE INCREASED TO ABOVE 10 KNOTS AND WINDS AT BUOY 41043
HAVE REMAINED BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS...SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER
IS CLOSER THAN EITHER OF THESE STATIONS...AND LIKELY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX. PRESSURES ARE REMAINING NEAR 1008 MB. MODELS
NOW SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY ON MONDAY IN ACCORDANCE
WITH A PASSAGE OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE
BEST ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND WEST PUERTO RICO AND SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM
STILL SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND SO DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN LOCALIZED FLOODING AGAIN TOMORROW. NEVERTHELESS WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

FLOODING NOW IN PROGRESS ON THE RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO RIVER HAS
PEAKED AND SHOULD BEGIN TO COME DOWN AFTER 10 PM AST SINCE THE
LAKE LEVEL UPSTREAM HAS SUBSIDED ALMOST A FOOT FROM THE CREST THAT
OCCURRED AT 03/21Z.

THE RIVER LEVEL ON THE GUANAJIBO AT HORMIGUEROS WAS CONTINUING TO
INCH UP SLOWLY...ALTHOUGH THE LAST DATA WE WERE ABLE TO GET CAME
IN AT 03/2315Z AT 19.51 FEET. FLOODING ABOVE 20 FEET WILL BE
MINOR...IF IT OCCURS...BUT IN THE LAST FLOOD EVENT SLOW RISES
OCCURRED THERE FOR ANOTHER 7 HOURS AFTER 01/23Z...THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE WITH FLOOD WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...THE VI...TNCM
AND TKPK THROUGH 04/14Z. AFT 04/14Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR OR EVEN
BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE ALL SITES IN A PASSING +TSRA OR +SHRA
THROUGH 05/00Z. OVERALL...EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE LLVL
WIND FLOW OF 10 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BUOY AT 41043 SHOWED SEAS STILL BETWEEN 9 TO 10 FEET AND
THEREFORE SEAS OF AT LEAST 7 FEET IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AMZ710...APPEAR QUITE REASONABLE AND WILL
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE SEAS IN THE NEAR-SHORE
NORTHERN WATERS HAVE BEEN ONLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND LESS THAN 2 FEET
SOUTH OF THE MAIN ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Small Craft Advisory

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

...HAZARDOUS SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE FRESH WINDS OVER THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK BEFORE
MOVING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

AMZ710-041030-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SC.Y.0056.000000T0000Z-101005T1600Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
1018 PM AST SUN OCT 3 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.More wet weather for Eastern Caribbean today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST MON OCT 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TODAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
NOTED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BECOMING MORE ACTIVE
IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY
TODAY...THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY WITH THE BEST ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND WEST PUERTO
RICO.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...DAYTIME HEATING AND AN EXTREMELY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS IS ALREADY IN FORECAST FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
BUT MAY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO REFER TO SJUFFASJU AND SJUESFSJU FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THE UPCOMING EXPECTED...LONG DURATION
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
THROUGH 04/12Z HOWEVER...PASSING VCSH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJNR...TJSJ...AND IN THE USVI...WITH TEMPO MVFR AT TNCM AND TKPK
THROUGH 04/14Z. AFT 04/14Z...EXPECT INCR SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT
EN ROUTE TO AND ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR OR
EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES IN A PASSING +TSRA OR
+SHRA THROUGH 05/00Z. OVERALL...EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LLVL WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE FRESH WINDS AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD
EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 8 FEET OR LESS ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 78 / 70 90 90 90
STT 88 78 87 80 / 70 90 90 90

[msbee]

Good Morning
I hope everyone is doing well with no serious flooding.
We have had several days of clouds here but not really much rain..until last night.
and then the heavens opened up. We had heavy rain and a lot of thunder and lightening.
This morning I see my rain gauge has 2 inches of water in it, so a lot of water fell in a short period of time.

This morning the sun is shining though.

Barbara

[msbee]

CROWNWEATHER DISCUSSION
Issued: Monday, October 4, 2010 545 am ET/445 am CT

For A Plethora Of Tropical Weather Information Including Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29.

Invest 97-L Located Over The Northeastern Caribbean:
I'm still keeping an eye on an area of disturbed weather that is located over the northeastern Caribbean this morning. This system is expected to track west to west-northwestward this week and will bring an extended period of heavy rain to much of the Greater Antilles Islands for much of this week. Life threatening flash flooding and mudslides are a very real possibility across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic from today through at least Thursday. Heavy rain and the likelihood of flash flooding and mudslides are expected for Haiti starting on Tuesday and continuing through the end of this week.

Development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm is unlikely over the next couple of days, however, this may change starting on Wednesday as this system enters an environment that is more favorable for development and also it moves away from Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. All indications are that this system should turn abruptly to the northeast and track out into the open Atlantic once it reaches the southeastern Bahamas later this week. The reason why this looks likely is because the upper level wind flow over the southeastern United States is expected to remain westerly for at least the next 7 to 10 days, if not longer which will turn any approaching storm away from the United States coast. It should be noted that the threat for a tropical storm or hurricane approaching Florida from the east or southeast is quite low, both from looking at climatology and also the synoptic setup over the United States. If Florida or the rest of the southeastern United States is to be affected by a tropical storm or hurricane the rest of this season, it would likely be a northeastward tracking storm coming from the western Caribbean.

So, in conclusion, I expect no development from Invest 97-L over the next day or two, however, development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm becomes more likely starting Wednesday, although it will likely be pulled out into the open Atlantic late this week into this weekend. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding and mudslides are the main threat from this system across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Possible Development In Southwest Caribbean This Weekend Into Next Week:
The global model guidance have been hinting for several days now that a tropical cyclone may develop in the southwest Caribbean this weekend. The catalyst for this development appears to be a spoke of energy that breaks off from Invest 97-L and tracks southwestward into the western and southwestern Caribbean later this week. Barometric pressures are currently quite low in this area and environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable as an area of high pressure builds over the area by this weekend.

Looking at the individual model guidance, The GFS model says yes to development and forecasts it to sit and spin in the southwestern and western Caribbean from Saturday through next Tuesday and ends up pulling it across the northwestern Bahamas next Thursday. The European model says maybe to development as it forecasts a weak low pressure system to develop in the southwest Caribbean late this weekend into early next week and actually forecasts it to track southwestward into Costa Rica and Panama in about 10 days from now. The European ensemble guidance is a little different than its operational counterpart. It forecasts low pressure to develop just south of Jamaica on Friday and then sit and spin over the southwest Caribbean through at least next Wednesday. It should be noted that the GFS ensemble model agrees with the European ensemble model in forecasting a low pressure system to sit and spin over the southwest Caribbean rather than having it be pulled northeastward like what the GFS operational model suggests.

So, I think at the minimum, we will have a disturbance to really keep an eye on by later this weekend into next week over the southwestern Caribbean. I am leaning towards the ensemble means of both the GFS and European models for something to just sit and spin in the southwest Caribbean for much of the week of October 11th and await a strong trough of low pressure to pick it up out of that area. Looking at the long, long range guidance, this type of trough may arrive and pick this up and send it north or northeast around October 17th. The placement of where this system develops will be critical to determine where it tracks when it is pulled northward. The further west it develops in the Caribbean will increase the risk to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, south Florida and the Bahamas. With that said, there is more than enough time to keep an eye on this potential system and I will keep you all updated.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am ET/6 am CT Wednesday morning. No discussions will be issued on Tuesday. For the time being, discussions will be issued every other day until a system poses a significant threat to the Caribbean Islands or the US coastline.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

[caribsue]

Conditions in Barbados still not good. Rain, thunder and lightning all night long.

The Government here has closed all schools for the day and both the private and public sector have been told they can open after 12:00 noon, I am presuming that will be only if conditions improve Only emergency and essential personnel should report for duty as usual. Persons should continue to monitor radio stations for updates.

The flood watch / warning has remains in effect until 12:00 and there is still a small craft advisory in effect.

[Macrocane]

Take care Caribbean friends.

Here in El Salvador things are pretty different from last week, the skies are blue, the air is dry, it's pretty windy and it feels pretty cool, since the 3rd week of March we didn't have an event like these and I can tell I really missed these winds. Later today I will post some observations of temperatures and wind speeds.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1137 AM AST MON OCT 4 2010

.UPDATE...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT...LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING AT 04/12Z SHOWS PW
VALUES OF AROUND 2.25 INCHES AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
INCREASING TREND IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...RESULTING IN AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING...AND MUDSLIDES OVER
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. ASIDE FROM THOSE MINOR CHANGES
IN THE MARINE GRIDS...NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ALL LOCAL TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA AND VCSH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJNR...TJSJ...AND IN THE USVI. AFT 04/14Z...EXPECT INCR SHRA AND
TSRA DEVELOPMENT EN ROUTE TO AND ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES
IN A PASSING +TSRA OR +SHRA THROUGH 05/00Z. LLVL WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
SHRA/TSRA

[cycloneye]

Barbara, I have been watching the cam from where you are and at times it has been blank as heavy showers have been moving thru.

[msbee]

hi Luis
yes, we had some heavy rains a little while ago.
A friend of mine who works not far from where that cam is located called me and said the road in front of her office was all flooded out.
Right now it is just raining lightly.
My little back yard rain gauge already measures over 1 inch though.
I guess it's just the beginning of a prolonged rain event.
We have absolutely no wind here though. It is incredibly calm.

How are things in PR right now?

[cycloneye]

How are things in PR right now?

The big rain event has not arrived here as this system is very slow to move westward,but eventually,there will be plenty of rain here. There is between 50-90% chance of rain between tonight and Wednesday.