Global model runs discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

I believe the one in the NW carib is reminants of Matthew.

[Brent]

This would be interesting:

[Vortex]

The CFS has done a remarkable job in the very long range this year...If this continues to hold true we may be in for a very active period beginning in about 10 days not only for for FL but alos the NE carribean...


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... HIV=0&WMO=

[Vortex]

18Z GFS continues to depict organized low pressure over the SW carribean by the end of the week....


H126


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

[Vortex]

H168...looks like we have a developing storm over the Western carribean by next weekend...The GFS has been on this for some time(last 3 days)..recent runs have been more organized as before the low was broad...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[Vortex]

H192 strengthening...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

[Vortex]

H228 strongest run yet by the GFS for this system...I have a feeling from this point on we'll seem so agressive runs...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps also on it...


H144

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

Several models have been depicting development the last 2-3 days across the SW carribean later this week/next weekend. Pressures are already low and by the end of the week the dry air across the western carribean should begin to mix out. At the same time shear is forecasted to decrease and an anticyclone looks to build over the area..The GFS has been keen on developing a system for the last few days..Until today it maintained a broad area of low pressure. Since then the runs have become more bullish...


18Z GFS

H144 organized low has formed

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal144.gif


H180 stronger moving NNW


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal180.gif

H216 and stronger.. just south of western cuba...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal216.gif

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps on it...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

12Z ECM H144 ensembles on it...



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif

[Vortex]

12Z Ukmet at H120 on it...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

[Vortex]

Looking at the 18Z GFS 850mb vorticity it appears this system develops as a small vorticity breaks off from the boundary over the western bahamas this week and pushes to the SSW...Nogaps also likes this idea...

18Z 850mb vorticity loop:


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

Hmmm saw the 18z gfs. Definitely something to watch. I called October 12th for the western caribbean October system last week. Would be on queue.

October is prime time for Florida hits.

[Vortex]

Nogaps 12Z 850mb vorticity looks similar to the GFS...




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[Vortex]

Hmmm saw the 18z gfs. Definitely something to watch. I called October 12th for the western caribbean October system kast week.Would be on queue.

October is prime time for Florida hits.

Climatology says look out SFL between the 10th and the 20th...

[gatorcane]

Nogaps 12Z 850mb vorticity looks similar to the GFS...




http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

Yep interesting indeed. Here we go in my opinion. Board should be jumping by the end of this week.

[Andrew92]

The Euro also doesn't seem to do much with this low early next week. Of course, a lot can happen between now and then, but I think if this takes place, it will take time.

That said, I have been thinking a big storm sometime in October, and next week towards the end would be the peak time to get such a storm. Then again, the model goes out to 00Z October 13, so I guess it's possible it hovers in there and then starts developing after that period. We'll see!

-Andrew92

[Dean4Storms]

This will be something to watch for sure. The exact place the low develops will make all the difference in the world, far enough west and its trapped with the only way out through FL. IMO.

[Andrew92]

This will be something to watch for sure. The exact place the low develops will make all the difference in the world, far enough west and its trapped with the only way out through FL. IMO.

I agree with that, something will probably develop somewhat soon in that area. What I'm saying in my previous post is that it may not occur just yet next weekend. It could, for instance, happen on Monday or Tuesday next week, which is actually a bit closer to the peak when storms reach their prime in that area. It's when seeing the most recent run going out to 168 hours and beyond from especially the Euro that makes me think development might come slower than some think....though it likely will happen.

-Andrew92