ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 032351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING ALONG
21N61W 15N64W TO 11N66W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A BROAD 1007 MB
LOW CENTER IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N63W. WHILE A
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXISTS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG
THE LESSER ANTILLES PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. CONSIDERABLE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THIS REGION FROM TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOCALLY FLASH FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES DUE SATURATED TERRAIN OVER THESE
AREAS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS.


$$

GARCIA

[abajan]

abajan,i know this "record", but i don't know any station in Guadeloupe named "Barot"!!! And this november day in 1970,there was no observation of such a rain event...Si this is very caution....

Okay, this is confusing because I’m sure I read about this many years ago in the Guinness Book of World Records as occurring on the island of Guadeloupe. However, further investigation has revealed that the record may actually be shared between two separate areas of the world: Barot, Himachal Pradesh, India and Barst, Guadeloupe. Is there such a place in Guadeloupe, HUC?

Here are more links on the event(s?):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/u ... uges.shtml
http://www.answers.com/topic/what-is-th ... r-measured
http://indianweatherman.blogspot.com/20 ... in-60.html (notice what Ashok Patel stated in one of the comments on the page)

Incidentally, typing “Barst Guadeloupe” (without the quotes) into Google returns several pages about the event.

Back on topic: There is a fair amount of lightning and distant thunder here and it has just started to rain. Also, there was flooding in some parts of the island today and we are presently under a flood warning:



Source: http://www.cdera.org/weather/barbados/index.php
Image uploaded via ImageShack

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010100400, , BEST, 0, 178N, 639W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Just east of St Croix.

[Gustywind]

[Blown Away]

00z Best Track
AL, 97, 2010100400, , BEST, 0, 178N, 639W, 25, 1007, DB
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Just east of St Croix.

Even on the IR you can see the circulation center near 17.8N/63.9W. Some convection is building near the center. No much, but there is a little more there than earlier.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[abajan]

Good grief!
We are getting a tremendous amount of lightning now: The rate is about a flash every two seconds and it’s certainly much brighter than earlier. The thunder isn’t loud though.

EDIT: Okay, it's raining heavily now and I suspect a thunderstorm may be forming right in my area. Shutting down computer for safety.
Good night all.

[cycloneye]

[BigB0882]

They are expecting a WSW movement? Interesting...

[Gustywind]

Good grief!
We are getting a tremendous amount of lightning now: The rate is about a flash every two seconds and it’s certainly much brighter than earlier. The thunder isn’t loud though.

EDIT: Okay, it's raining heavily now and I suspect a thunderstorm may be forming right in my area. Shutting down computer for safety.
Good night all.

Abajan be safe and dry! Be on your guard!

[gatorcane]

They are expecting a WSW movement? Interesting...

That is surprising when you look at the gfs

[BigB0882]

They are expecting a WSW movement? Interesting...

That is surprising when you look at the gfs

Good to know I am not crazy, I have looked at so many model runs this summer that they all begin to run together in my head! lol

Movement to the WSW would be worrisome, wouldn't that give it a higher chance to miss the connection and recurve out? I know it isn't a very large swing but sometimes that is all it takes to set things in motion.

Also, if it goes WSW then continues on a general W motion, that southerly jog will give it a higher chance at missing any mountainous terrain that might have otherwise been in its path and could help keep this from strengthening or forming at all, possibly.

I'm going to assume it will still recurve, just not quite where the GFS predicted. I hope so, at least.

[gatorcane]

They are expecting a WSW movement? Interesting...

That is surprising when you look at the gfs

Good to know I am not crazy, I have looked at so many model runs this summer that they all begin to run together in my head! lol

Movement to the WSW would be worrisome, wouldn't that give it a higher chance to miss the connection and recurve out? I know it isn't a very large swing but sometimes that is all it takes to set things in motion.

Also, if it goes WSW then continues on a general W motion, that southerly jog will give it a higher chance at missing any mountainous terrain that might have otherwise been in its path and could help keep this from strengthening or forming at all, possibly.

I'm going to assume it will still recurve, just not quite where the GFS predicted. I hope so, at least.

Have you seen the nam? See models thread.

To be honest I'm looking closely at possible development in the western Caribbean for this time next week. See talk in tropics long-range models thread,

[Gustywind]

[abajan]

Well, I’m back online but I don’t know for how long because there’s still lots of lightning around and satellite imagery indicates that another batch of convection is heading our way. We really had a lot of lightning last night. By the time I hit the sack around midnight, it had held up somewhat but around 4 o’clock I was awakened by several bright flashes. (I guess I should have shut the blinds when I went to bed. )

As a result of the flooding over the last couple of days and particularly last night, all schools and educational institutions, with the exception of The University of The West Indies (U.W.I. Cave Hill Campus), have been closed for the day and with the exception of emergency services, all public and private sector businesses will be closed until noon. (U.W.I. will resume classes at Noon.)

The flood warning has been extended until Noon today.

Incidentally, the floater needs repositioning.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

[wxman57]

I'm not sure where the talk of a WSW movement came from, as the disturbance is certainly not presently or forecast to move to the WSW. It will move slowly westward across the islands of the NE Caribbean over the next few days. It's possible it could develop near the DR before being picked up by an approaching cold front and steered out to sea to the NE on Thursday. Main threat will be continued heavy rain across the NE Caribbean.

[TheBurn]

[abajan]

Raining heavily. It's now quite dark outside and we're getting some pretty strong southerly gusts. Shutting down computer.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010100412, , BEST, 0, 177N, 654W, 25, 1007

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest