WPAC: INVEST 92W

[supercane]

ASCAT somewhat interesting with a hint of a circulation around 13N 127E although only caught the eastern side. Winds still weak with peak winds around 20kt.


However, vis not as convincing as ASCAT, although center would be on upper part of image:

[dexterlabio]

This could just pass through the Philippines but not as a developed cyclone then chances of formation would increase as it reaches SCS. ITOP team said that it could merge with 93W in SCS and consolidate.

By the way, the area of disturbance northeast of 92W's location has better shot to pop out as a cyclone imo. It is tapped as ITOP25.

[supercane]

From JTWC's significant weather advisory:
ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600ZSEP2010-010600ZOCT2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.4N
130.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 575 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO CYCLE
IN AND AROUND A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 300117Z PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A NEARLY SYMMETRIC AND WELL-DEFINED WIND FIELD WITH
SUB-GALE FORCE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHEAST. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT
30+ KNOTS AND IS INHIBITING ORGRANIZATION OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER,
VWS WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD,
IMPROVING THE LIKLIHOOD OF GENESIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

[supercane]

00Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 13N 123E WSW 10 KT.

[supercane]

JMA 12Z analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 12N 121E WEST SLOWLY.

Earlier JTWC significant tropical weather advisory:
ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZOCT2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6N
128.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 121.6E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. CONVECTION REMAINS LOOSELY-INTACT
AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES. OSERVATIONS FROM
RPLB AND RPLL, IN SOUTHWESTERN LUZON, INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE HAS
DEEPENEED. BOTH SITES ARE REPORTING 3 TO 4 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
FALLS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT A NEW LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEGUN TO FORM BENEATH A SMALL CLUSTER OF
CONCENTRATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN SULU SEA, JUST SOUTH OF
THESE OBSERVATION SITES. IN ADDITION TO LAND INTERACTION, MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS STALLED AGGRESSIVE CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

[RobWESTPACWX]

Way off topic, but man I am so happy their is no big storms going on right now. This most recent shot of cold air here has dove me in to one nasty cold/flu. Anyways everyone here is avoiding me. Hopefully I can wrap up the 5 day and take off. Terrible! On that note, I really hope this storm don't develop. I'm actually a little suprised JT still does have the poor area on it.

(then I later come back to regret that statement)..... since they end up making it a fair

[Infdidoll]

I've literally been so busy I haven't had time to check the weather. I'm glad I haven't missed anything! I had a surprise visitor fly over from the boat to do some helicopter maintenance back on land.

[Chacor]

No longer on the JMA's analysis.

[supercane]

Still messy on vis:


Yes, low off JMA but still analyzed by HKO as a broad general low area in the SCS:


ASCAT also shows low not as well defined, looking like an elongated trough as suggested by HKO analysis:

[RobWESTPACWX]

JT upgraded the poor to a fair area now.

[RobWESTPACWX]

There is some improved outflow, pretty evident on the sat shot expecially along the southern edge.... May have a TCFA here in the next 12hrs. What do you guys think?

(I would have a video today, despite the fact my throat is all clogged up, first sign of fall right?)

[Chacor]

JTWC's 0600z STWA:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9N
121.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 116.8E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION. A 020217Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.

[phwxenthusiast]

oopss downgraded to poor:

JTWC 030600:

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N
116.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING WITH FLARING AND
UNORGANIZED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). THE
SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARD LAND, WHICH SHOULD DECREASE
THE PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND THE
UNORGANIZED CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO POOR.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just did up this video, has my thoughts on 92W....
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKg9xaupjSY[/youtube]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[supercane]

JTWC upgrades development chance back up to fair, but system running out of room.

ABPW10 PGTW 032130 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED CORRECTED/032130Z-040600ZOCT2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N
111.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 108.OE, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HAINAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING WITH INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AND INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
INDICATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 22 KNOTS AND 1006.2 MB
PRESSURE AND DANANG, VIETNAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, IS REPORTING A PRESSURE OF 1003 MB (A
4 MB DROP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS). ADDITIONALLY, ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (REPORTS OF 84
DEGREES F) AND MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. WHILE A DISTINCT LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL IL-DEFINED AND IS TRACKING CLOSER
TO LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR, BASED ON
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO FAIR.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED SST UNITS FROM C TO F.//

00Z JMA analysis:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 16N 108E WNW SLOWLY.

Hope you're feeling better, RobWESTPACWX

[StormingB81]

NRL has 95 right next to it. Can that be possible?

[RobWESTPACWX]

Thanks supercane, much better today, you can tell in my last video it sounds like I'm about to fall asleep at a few points. To much nyquil.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like it's inland

[Infdidoll]

Glad you are feeling better...and I'm actually glad for the break in the weather. I've gotten a lot done, this week, not sitting here refreshing my screen waiting for updates. Hope everyone else is enjoying a great start to fall.