ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

For next Wednesday afternoon (If Necessary) recon may go to check 97L.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT MON 04 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-125

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST AT 06/1800Z NEAR 21N 69W.

[BigB0882]

I'm not sure where the talk of a WSW movement came from, as the disturbance is certainly not presently or forecast to move to the WSW. It will move slowly westward across the islands of the NE Caribbean over the next few days. It's possible it could develop near the DR before being picked up by an approaching cold front and steered out to sea to the NE on Thursday. Main threat will be continued heavy rain across the NE Caribbean.

The map cycloneye posted on the previous page came from the HPC, and showed the low moving WSW. It has since been updated. That is where the discussion came from.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[TampaFl]

Nice "spin" on the St. Maarten Radar.

http://weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html

Robert

[HURAKAN]

Jeff Masters

Forecast for 97L
The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear over 97L will slowly fall over the next three days, reaching the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday, which may allow the storm to develop into a tropical depression, if its center can stay over water. All of the major computer models now show development of 97L into a tropical depression Wednesday or Thursday, just north of Hispaniola. By Thursday, a passing trough of low pressure is expected to pull 97L to the northeast away from Hispaniola, and rains should end by Friday on the island if this forecast verifies. NHC is giving 97L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. 97L will move at about 5 - 10 mph today through Wednesday, bringing the potential for an extended 3-day period of heavy rains for the islands in its path. These rains may result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today through Wednesday, and for Haiti Tuesday through Thursday. Flash flood watches are posted for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today.

Link - http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1644

[Gustywind]

Raining continioulsy here. Some gusts too, yellow alert always required for Guadeloupe, Martinica, and the Northern Leewards.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 20%.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO
...AND HISPANIOLA.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

it seems like 97L will take off once shear decreases, very persistent system

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010100418, , BEST, 0, 177N, 658W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[HUC]

Very heavy rain, rough seas and gusty winds from the SSO to SSE over the west part of Guadeloupe ( more than 120mm of rain in my rain gauge in Basse-Terre...) and that's continuing.The effects are similar to a strong TD in this part of Guadeloupe!!!

[chrisjslucia]

Thunderstorms, heavy rain overnight and gusty winds from the SE / ESE, continuing into this morning. Little rain since mid morning here but it is grey and gloomy - Martinique just about visible through the cloud. More rain inevitable and we tend do cope with this amount of rain better than St Vincent and Barbados (terrain not skill) and get less heavy weather than further North in Gusty's part of the world. Basically, we just wish this damn weather would move on. Tedious, which is why, I guess, the number of posts relating to this system is very modest!

[cycloneye]

Thunderstorms, heavy rain overnight and gusty winds from the SE / ESE, continuing into this morning. Little rain since mid morning here but it is grey and gloomy - Martinique just about visible through the cloud. More rain inevitable and we tend do cope with this amount of rain better than St Vincent and Barbados (terrain not skill) and get less heavy weather than further North in Gusty's part of the world. Basically, we just wish this damn weather would move on. Tedious, which is why, I guess, the number of posts relating to this system is very modest!

Stay safe and dry over there. Do you know of web cams in that island?

You can visit our Caribbean thread at U.S & Caribbean Weather forum to post the daily local observations from St Lucia.

[cycloneye]

Trying to organize?

[chrisjslucia]

Just checked the model tracks forecast at Wunderground and it shows this disappearing North West (towards the UK!) into the Atlantic after passing north of the DR. It's as if some mighty force has decided to stand up and forbid it to reach Haiti. it is not so much a recurve as a 90 degree hand brake turn.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Gustywind]

From Meteo-France Guadeloupe, here is the latest weather forecast: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_gd.pdf
Hey my friends read it carefully Meteo-France reported a gust up to 104 km/h not so bad for a "simple active" twave
Stay safe and dry all my carib friends, be on your guard. Very wet weather conditions continues on the Leewards unhopefully not good news for us.
Gustywind

Regional service of Guadeloupe
BP 451 - 97183 ABYMES
Meteorological attentiveness Guadeloupe
YELLOW LEVEL for " STRONG RAINS / THUNDERSTORMS AND SEA
DANGEROUS ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE ISLAND"
Current situation and Observations
Lesser Antilles remain concerned by a vast rainy zone and stormy bound connected to a tropical wave.
Rains were supported for this morning in particular on the East of the Grande-Terre, the Southwest of the Basse-Terre and the Saints. We reported on 12 hours an accumulation of 107 millemeters in Basse-Terre, 63 millimeters at Le Moule, 60 millimeters at Les Saintes and locally up to 120 mm in these sectors.
Somewhere else on the pointoise region and as for Anse-Bertrand, rains were more weaker with 10 to 20 mm. (1 mm = 1 liter per square meter)
Gusts of wind at 104 kph were measured in La Désirade this morning, and at 60 kph in Raizet, in Basse-Terre and in Marie Galante.
Forecasts
We stay under the threat of strong rains and thunderstorms still these next 48 hours at least, interrupted with quiet periods. Rainy accumulations can thus be still important. Gusts of wind exceeding 60 kph are still possible near the stormy cells or heavy downpours.
Furthermore, the wind of sector the South had the effect of raising a swell unusual, generating rollers of 1m50 and 2m on coasts exposed in the West and in the south, from Deshaies to Saint François drifting by Basse-Terre and the small Cul-de-sac. This swell pays off tomorrow in the course of day.
Comments/Consequences
Grounds are filled with water because of the strong rains of the last ones weeks and last hours. Attention in particular in zones usually easily flooded and during your movements.
Summarized
The expected impact is moderated
Validity - a duration of Phenomenon
Until Wednesday at least
Next bulletin: tomorrow on Tuesday at about 06:30 am
INDIVIDUAL MEASURES OF BEHAVIOR VALIDATED IN THE SPECIFIC CAPACITIES(MEASURES) " METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA " ORSEC " BE CAREFUL " YELLOW ATTENTIVENESS STRONG RAINS
PREFECTURE OF GUADELOUPE
Inquire of the meteorological situation and be particularly careful:
- If you have to practise sports at outdoor risk
- If your outdoor activities are situated in an exposed zone, on ground, in particular in mountain, near
streams, as offshore also.
- If you have to circulate in flood-risk areas crossing of fords or low passages
taken.
- In case of thunderstorm: avoid the use of telephones and electric devices. Do not shelter in a woody zone, right by pylons or posts.
Bulletin of follow-up N °: 11
Episode N: 19-GD
From Monday, October 4th, 2010 till 5 pm
Regional service of Guadeloupe

[msbee]

If you look at PR radar or St. Maarten radar, it really looks like this thing has a spin to it.

What I don't understand is that the weather report from Guadeloupe that Gusty posted mentions such high winds.
We have absolutely no wind here in St. Maarten..not even when the heavier rains start.
Can someone explain that to me please?

FYI, last night we had 2 inches of rain and so far today we have had 1 1/2 inches of rain..at my house anyway.
I think other parts of the island may have received higher amounts of rain.
Needless to say, the ground is saturated.

[Macrocane]

wow! it may not be a tropical storm but the effects are similar, let's continue updating guys I'm going to stay tuned. Be safe.

[Gustywind]

Barbara, very interresting weather forecast... from Meteo-France Guadeloupe, here is the latest weather forecast for the Nothern Leewards: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_in.pdf

Regional service of Guadeloupe
BP 451 - 97183 ABYMES
Attentiveness Météorologique Northern Leewards Sint Marteen and Sint Barth
YELLOW LEVEL for " STRONG RAINS / THUNDERSTORMS ", " SEA
DANGEROUS "AND" STRONG WIND "
Current situation And Observations
Lesser Antilles remain concerned by a vast rainy zone and stormy bound connected to a tropical wave.
Thunderstorms and rains took place since yesterday evening. We reported this morning 48 millimeters in St Barth on the last 24 hours. At Sint Marteen Grand Case, we measured this evening 21 mm on the last 12 hours.
The rainy activity became intensified in the afternoon around our islands.
(1 mm = 1 liter per square meter)
Forecasts
We stay under the threat of strong rains and thunderstorms still these next 48 hours at least, interrupted with quiet periods. Rainy accumulations can thus be important. Gusts of wind from 70 to 100 kph are possible near the stormy cells or heavy downpours.
Furthermore, the wind of sector south strengthens this night and tomorrow for reach on average 40 kph then 50 kph on Wednesday. This is going to have for effect to raise an unusual swell of sector the South, which can generate
rollers of 2m in 2m50 tomorrow, even more on Wednesday.
Summarized
The expected impact is weak in moderated
Validity - lasted of the phenomenon
Until Wednesday at least.
Next bulletin: tomorrow on Tuesday before 06:30 am

INDIVIDUAL MEASURES OF BEHAVIOR VALIDATED
IN THE SPECIFIC CAPACITIES(MEASURES) " METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA " ORSEC
" BE CAREFUL " YELLOW ATTENTIVENESS STRONG RAINS
PREFECTURE OF THE ISLANDS OF the NORTH
Inquire of the meteorological situation and be particularly careful:
- If you have to practise sports at outdoor risk
- If your outdoor activities are situated in an exposed zone, on ground as , in particular in mountain, near
streams, as offshore also.
- If you have to circulate in flood-risk areas crossing of fords or low passages
taken.
- In case of thunderstorm: avoid the use of telephones and electric devices. Do not shelter in a woody zone, right by pylons or posts.
Collective measures could be possibly recommended later by the Prefect
Bulletin of follow-up N °: 8
Episode N: 19-IN
From Monday, October 4th, 2010 till 5 pm