Disturbance in the western Caribbean (Is invest 98L)

[GCANE]

This is a complicated setup so excuse the technical terms; unfortunately, there is not a better way to explain this.

Three factors are in play:

1) IMHO the UL negative MPV from 97L continues west into the Carib.

2) This will interact later in the week with a cutoff PV from the trough dropping down from the CONUS.

3) This could also be reinforced by the vorticity of the wave associated from 97L as it continues west.

All globals are showing 850mb vortticity breaking off from the trough in the west Carib.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation


UL should be favorable then as diabatic heating of the large convection currently from 97L pushes west.

If it continues to fire, it may be able to redirect the anti-cyclone currently over Hispaniola to the area south of Jamaica.

At that time, the dynamic tropopause should lift and be conducive for TC genesis.

Trade winds have shifted in the Carib.

They are running from the west south of Hispaniola and out of the north in the west Carib.

GFS has been consistant with spinup and more models jumping on it.

CAPE is forecasted to be 1500 to 2000 in the West Carib at that time.


http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/cor ... ecast.html

[expat2carib]

Good argumentation. Sound plausible to me. Let's see and wait it out.

[GCANE]

High rain-rate cells are firing south of DR which adds a lot to latent heating of the mid- & upper-troposphere.

This could eventually lead in moving the anti-cyclone more south.

The setup is looking more and more like what happened with Nicole.

[FireRat]

I've been thinking that things would ramp up beginning on October 8 and last into November 25th, we'll see if this is the start of one of the craziest late-season episodes ever.

[Vortex]

12Z GFS looks continues to depicts development within 5 days over the SW carribean.


*mods it would be nice if we could have a seperate thread for this.


H174

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[Vortex]

H192 blowing up over the NW carribean...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

[Vortex]

H264 over FL straits...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif

[Vortex]

GFS has been on this for the last 3-4 days...Over the last day its been progressively stronger with each successive run.

[LarryWx]

Hurricane hit dates from the west/south on FL from Tampa area south 10/1+ (1851-2009):

10/2, 10/5, 10/5, 10/6, 10/7, 10/9, 10/11, 10/11, 10/12, 10/14, 10/15, 10/17, 10/18, 10/18, 10/18, 10/19, 10/19, 10/20, 10/20, 10/20, 10/21, 10/23, 10/24, 10/25, 11/30

Note the bolded period of highest frequency for 10/1+ within a five day period by far being 10/17-21, which had a whopping TEN, double the highest frequency of any other 10/1+ five day period! So, the peak for 10/1+ for C/S FL hits from the west or south has clearly been 10/17-21.

Fwiw, the three of these that hit during a moderate or strong La Nina season hit on these dates: 10/11, 10/12, and 10/15.

[Vortex]

Larry, as usual GREAT RESEARCH... thanks for those stats..

[LarryWx]

Larry, as usual GREAT RESEARCH... thanks for those stats..

Thanks Vortex.

Regarding those 10 hurricane hits within 10/17-21, the last one was way back in 1950, interestingly enough! Here are the years:

1870, 1876, 1878, 1904, 1906, 1910, 1924, 1926, 1944, and 1950.

[Vortex]

12Z Euro also indicates low pressure developing over the SW carribean by day 5.



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

[gatorcane]

I noticed development is now happening by day 5 on the GFS...so the timeline is shortening. That is a good indication we could get development in the Western Caribbean by the weekend or early next week.

[jconsor]

I'm thinking the GFS has the right idea, but is rushing development by a good 5-7 days.

GFS ensembles have very little support for W. Caribbean development early next week, but more support by Oct 17-20.

The MJO pattern is unfavorable for the next 10 days or so, but will likely become more neutral by Oct 17-20 once a negative Kelvin wave exits the Cairbbean.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS rolls in 15 min....

[Vortex]

H66 low SW of Jamaica....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

[Vortex]

H90 over SW carribean S of Jamaica...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

[Vortex]

H120 organizing over SW carribean


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[Vortex]

models are hinting this system will begin to organize over the far SW carribean...should this verify this system will have the better part of a week over the warm waters of the western carribean with little land interaction...

[Vortex]

H144 a little stronger east of nicaragua...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif