Disturbance in the western Caribbean (Is invest 98L)

[Vortex]

storms in this location at this time of year run a high chance making landfall over central/western cuba and then towards South FL/Western bahamas..

[Vortex]

H168 just east of nicaragua/honduras..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

[Vortex]

H180 just NE of Honduran coast...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal180.gif

[Vortex]

H228 NW carribean


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal228.gif

[Vortex]

H252 nearing western cuba...a very slow mover and classic October track...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal252.gif

[Vortex]

landfall central cuba...

[Vortex]

weaker this run but further west for much of the period...well see this change many times as the pattern becomes more progressive but it appears likely something will get going over the SW carribean over the next week...

[Vortex]

12Z UKmet on it...


H120

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

[gatorcane]

Yeah I noticed it shifted west some this run. A classic October track for sure.

[Vortex]

12Z ECM ensembles on it...

H120

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

[gatorcane]

12Z ECM ensembles on it...

H120

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif

Consensus is growing. What is amazing is that the models are still showing strong upper-level westeries across the southern gom and Florida all the way through mid to late October causing this to move into Cuba and off into the Bahamas south of Florida. However we are talking long-range so could change.

[psyclone]

yeah the pattern seems downright november-like. should that persist, any development in the western caribbean would likely be swept out into the atlantic well east of florida in a michelle (2001, i think) type track. it will be interesting to see if the pattern changes.

[GCANE]

This could be stationary thru the weekend.

[GCANE]

Heavy convection, south of Hispaniola, continues to fire and move slowly west just south iof the TUTT centered north of the Mona Passage.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 050245.jpg

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Anticyclone continues to work its way slowly south nearer to the convection.

Cloud tops are running 55 to 60K-ft.

The persistant heavy convection and solar heating of the cirrus will continue diabatic heating of the upper troposphere.

This will continue to develop the negative moist potential vorticity (NMPV) in the mid Carib's upper troposphere.

The improvement in the UL's should be indicated by the anti-cyclone moving over the convection.

[Vortex]

All the globals on board with development...ECM/GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET all indicate a cyclone forming over the SW carribean over the next 4-7 days...The cyclone will likely remain quasi-stationary over the SW carribean through much of the upcoming weekend..Later next week a cold front is expected to charge across the midwest and this will draw the cyclone NNW/N then NE to a position near western cuba late in the week..At the same time a cold front is expected to possibly pass through all Florida and exit the SE coast...How far North the cyclone gets will determine weather this crosses SFL or remains just to the east and heads into the bahamas...Climatology would suggest a very close call or hit on south fl....stay tuned...

[gatorcane]

GFS 00Z: Only 5 days from now, getting organized.


GFS 12Z: 7 days from now, tightening up:

[KWT]

I'm guessing the system that has split off from 97L is going to be the region that sparks off any development in the W.Caribbean?

A little too early to call with regards to track though...

[latitude_20]

Increasing area of vorticity just north of Panama.

[wzrgirl1]

Should be another wait and see situation. Being that all the models have latched on becomes a matter of patience. Here's to hoping that this is nothing but a minor rain event for anyone.

[Blown Away]

IMO, this area should be a "Code Yellow" very soon.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html