ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[msbee]

Gusty
we certainly are not getting those winds...at least not yet

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

[Gustywind]

Gusty
we certainly are not getting those winds...at least not yet

Yeah you're right... but be aware things can change quickly and suddenly . Bbe on your guard. This rain event is pretty persistent that could pose many problems in terms of floodings!

[Gustywind]

Heavy convection continues on much of the islands... look at these two blobs on Martinica and the Northern Leewards, tops at -80°c

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010100500, , BEST, 0, 175N, 645W, 25, 1007 DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Near St Croix.

[abajan]

:eek: wow! it may not be a tropical storm but the effects are similar, let's continue updating guys I'm going to stay tuned. Be safe.

This system certainly packs a punch. We had gusts similar to what Gustywind stated happened in Guadeloupe and there were even reports of tornadic activity causing some houses to lose their roofs and trees to be uprooted. This afternoon around 4 o’clock, when I thought the system was pretty much done with Barbados, I was surprised to witness some spectacular forked lightning near our airport. However, the flood warning has been discontinued and the weather is returning to normal. Unlike last night, there’s no rain nor any lightning.

Here’s more on what happened in Barbados:

• http://www.nationnews.com/articles/view/winds-lift-roofs/
• http://www.nationnews.com/articles/view/third-day-of-flooding/
• http://www.nationnews.com/articles/view/heavy-rain-high-winds-cause-damage/

Be sure to view the various (time sensitive) video clips on those pages — especially:

• Flooded House in Eden Lodge
• Water Gushing
• Flooding in Barbados (Bridge Gap)

If you don't see video clips, try refreshing the page.

It just goes to show that there needn’t be a hurricane or even a tropical storm for drama to occur!

[Weatherfreak000]

The persistence of this area is truly amazing. I feel at this point with development the consensus this may sneak into favorable conditions overnight or tomorrow...I think 50/50 we get Otto from this.

[FLpanhandle91]

Cold cloud tops are slowly migrating their way to the persistent LLC. I believe we see Otto within 36 hours. What is causing the models to have such a sharp turn to the northeast?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[HURAKAN]

vorticity has increased

[Weatherfreak000]

CMC earlier today put a closed low i believe by tomorrow so we should start seeing some organizational trending towards Code Red overnight if the CMC confirms...

[kohlejgreene]

up to 50

[DanKellFla]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
INCREASED A LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[GCANE]

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA.

[KWT]

Its quite surprising how this is a code red but clearly it has got something going for it, but it just looks like an elongated sheared mess right now, alot like pre-Bonnie actually.

It probably has a reasonable chance of developing despite looking terrible but don't expect anything other then a weak system IMO unless it gets some serious ExT help on the way out to the NE.