ATL: OTTO - Models

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models

#221 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 7:35 am

12z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 051214
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1214 UTC TUE OCT 5 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20101005 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101005  1200   101006  0000   101006  1200   101007  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.0N  65.3W   20.4N  66.7W   21.3N  67.8W   22.0N  68.2W
BAMD    19.0N  65.3W   20.1N  66.5W   21.0N  67.3W   21.9N  67.7W
BAMM    19.0N  65.3W   20.2N  66.6W   21.1N  67.6W   21.8N  67.9W
LBAR    19.0N  65.3W   20.2N  66.3W   21.2N  67.3W   21.9N  67.7W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          45KTS          56KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          45KTS          56KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101007  1200   101008  1200   101009  1200   101010  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    22.8N  68.0W   25.7N  65.5W   28.3N  61.5W   28.2N  53.3W
BAMD    23.0N  67.7W   26.6N  65.0W   31.9N  58.1W   39.7N  41.9W
BAMM    22.8N  67.7W   26.0N  64.9W   30.1N  59.5W   33.6N  48.1W
LBAR    22.6N  67.7W   24.6N  64.8W   28.1N  59.1W   32.3N  47.4W
SHIP        67KTS          82KTS          78KTS          64KTS
DSHP        67KTS          82KTS          78KTS          64KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.0N LONCUR =  65.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  18.1N LONM12 =  64.6W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  17.6N LONM24 =  63.8W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models

#222 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 7:39 am

Both GFDL and HWRF has future Otto as a hurricane.

06z GFDL

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

06z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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#223 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 05, 2010 8:27 am

It'll be interesting to see if they verify, esp given the presentation IMO is far from impressive right now. Saying that systems heading out to sea in that location do tend to strengthen more then expected so its a wait and see sorta thing!
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#224 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Oct 05, 2010 8:30 am

The GFDL and HWRF could be legit, seeing as how they wait to intensify 97L instead of bombing systems right away as they often do.
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#225 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 05, 2010 8:37 am

It actually looks like to me that it strengthens to say 50-55kts then goes ExT and strengthens once its non-tropical towards hurricane strength, of course I could be wrong but it sure looks that way.

At least they aren't too quick with development though, but for now it looks to me like its actually getting sheared apart...
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#226 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Oct 05, 2010 12:24 pm

According to the CMC, 97L develops a closed circulation in time for the 2 A.M. advisory tonight...
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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models

#227 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 1:33 pm

18z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 051755
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1755 UTC TUE OCT 5 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20101005 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101005  1800   101006  0600   101006  1800   101007  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.6N  65.7W   21.8N  66.9W   22.9N  67.7W   24.0N  68.0W
BAMD    20.6N  65.7W   21.8N  66.7W   22.9N  67.2W   24.2N  67.4W
BAMM    20.6N  65.7W   21.7N  66.9W   22.8N  67.6W   23.9N  67.9W
LBAR    20.6N  65.7W   21.9N  66.6W   23.3N  67.3W   24.4N  67.8W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          46KTS          55KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          46KTS          55KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101007  1800   101008  1800   101009  1800   101010  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.2N  67.8W   27.4N  65.6W   29.6N  58.1W   32.1N  46.4W
BAMD    25.8N  67.0W   30.3N  63.6W   36.3N  54.4W   46.4N  35.4W
BAMM    25.3N  67.5W   28.8N  64.7W   32.5N  57.1W   38.5N  42.6W
LBAR    25.3N  67.1W   28.7N  63.6W   32.5N  54.2W   39.0N  38.7W
SHIP        63KTS          72KTS          67KTS          49KTS
DSHP        63KTS          72KTS          67KTS          49KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  20.6N LONCUR =  65.7W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR =   9KT
LATM12 =  18.6N LONM12 =  65.0W DIRM12 = 335DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  17.8N LONM24 =  64.2W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

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Re: ATL : INVEST 97L - Models

#228 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 8:03 pm

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 060035
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0035 UTC WED OCT 6 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20101006 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101006  0000   101006  1200   101007  0000   101007  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    21.5N  66.1W   22.8N  67.3W   23.9N  67.9W   25.0N  68.1W
BAMD    21.5N  66.1W   22.8N  67.0W   24.0N  67.4W   25.5N  67.4W
BAMM    21.5N  66.1W   22.7N  67.3W   23.8N  67.7W   25.0N  67.7W
LBAR    21.5N  66.1W   23.3N  67.0W   25.0N  67.4W   26.5N  67.2W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          43KTS          52KTS
DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          43KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101008  0000   101009  0000   101010  0000   101011  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    26.0N  67.4W   27.6N  64.4W   28.7N  57.2W   30.2N  47.8W
BAMD    27.4N  66.3W   32.5N  60.7W   38.7N  47.0W   46.2N  29.3W
BAMM    26.5N  66.7W   30.1N  62.7W   33.0N  54.8W   38.6N  40.6W
LBAR    28.9N  66.4W   33.7N  58.4W   38.8N  42.0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        60KTS          65KTS          54KTS          35KTS
DSHP        60KTS          65KTS          54KTS          35KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  21.5N LONCUR =  66.1W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  19.5N LONM12 =  65.3W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  18.1N LONM24 =  64.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  120NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  300NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

Image
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Re: ATL : SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 17 - Models

#229 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:58 pm

592
WHXX01 KWBC 061955
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1955 UTC WED OCT 6 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OTTO (AL172010) 20101006 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
101006 1800 101007 0600 101007 1800 101008 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.0N 68.3W 23.4N 69.0W 24.0N 68.9W 24.3N 67.7W
BAMD 23.0N 68.3W 23.7N 68.9W 24.8N 68.6W 26.8N 66.7W
BAMM 23.0N 68.3W 23.5N 68.9W 24.3N 68.4W 25.6N 66.7W
LBAR 23.0N 68.3W 23.9N 68.6W 25.2N 68.3W 27.4N 66.5W
SHIP 45KTS 56KTS 66KTS 71KTS
DSHP 45KTS 56KTS 66KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
101008 1800 101009 1800 101010 1800 101011 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.5N 64.8W 28.8N 54.6W 32.5N 40.7W 33.9N 29.9W
BAMD 29.4N 63.4W 35.5N 50.7W 43.9N 31.0W 45.8N 23.7W
BAMM 27.6N 64.0W 31.4N 53.4W 36.8N 38.9W 40.4N 29.4W
LBAR 29.7N 64.6W 33.3N 53.9W 37.2N 38.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 74KTS 74KTS 56KTS 36KTS
DSHP 74KTS 74KTS 56KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 68.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 67.2W DIRM12 = 315DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 20.6N LONM24 = 65.7W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 70NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$
NNN
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plasticup

#230 Postby plasticup » Fri Oct 08, 2010 7:59 am

More and more models are showing Otto as a distinct system through the Azores, and back down to Madeira!
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Re:

#231 Postby jconsor » Fri Oct 08, 2010 8:27 am

GFS brings Otto all the way to southern Spain as a shallow warm core system:

Image
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#232 Postby pepeavilenho » Fri Oct 08, 2010 8:41 am

Consensus:GFS+CMC+NOGAPS+UKMO+GFDL+HWRF
Image

Image

GORDON(2006) rewind?? :eek:
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