Disturbance in the western Caribbean (Is invest 98L)

[Vortex]

12Z GFS develops organized low within 3 days over SW carribean


H72


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal072.gif

[Vortex]

The area slowly pushing west S of DR is looking very suspect this afternoon...

[caneseddy]

Out through 384 hours (fantasyland), 12z GFS has a Michelle like track for this storm, which then impacts Southern New England

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[caneseddy]

Another run of the GFS and it seems to develop it out of the disturbance currently south of Hispaniola

[Vortex]

Cuba, South FL, and the bahamas will need to pay close attention next week...

[gatorcane]

Out through 384 hours (fantasyland), 12z GFS has a Michelle like track for this storm, which then impacts Southern New England

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

We are not in fantasy-land any longer. Development begins by the weekend. I suspect we will get a named storm. Fortunately, steering patterns continue to suggest south of Florida...but that is out in the long-range so we will watch vigilantly.

[dwsqos2]

Considering that the tc-happy CMC has little to nothing, it really isn't a sure thing.

[Vortex]

12Z UKmet also develops an organized low over the SW carribean within 72 hours....


H72


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal072.gif

[Vortex]

12Z ECM also develops organized low within 72 hours...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP072.gif

[Vortex]

12Z ECM H96 Quasis stationary over the SW carribean


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP096.gif

[Vortex]

ECM H144 maintains the low over the SW carribean...


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif

[Vortex]

Probably a good chance this develops with the model consensus...Classic October development..Slow to start and remains over the western carribean for some time...THE GFS late in the period may be to strong with an ene/ne movement for mid-october...A NE movemnt while near the NW carribean and/or western Cuba looks more reasonable later next week based on climatology.....

[Vortex]

12Z ECM H168 still over SW carribean


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif

[Vortex]

12Z Nogaps just east of Nicaragua/Honduras at H144



http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal144.gif

[Vortex]

Disturbed weather S of DR continues to look rather interesting on the visible as it slowly pushes west...

[Vortex]

12Z UKmet at H120


http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal120.gif

[Ivanhater]

Just take a look at the 200mb chart on the GFS...The westerlies are screaming across the Gulf including S.Florida the entire time, leaving the door closed for the Gulf. The models have been showing this same scenario for well over a week. Nothing will get into the Gulf with those westerlies.

It may be Cane season is over for the U.S, and fall came early. Down right cold in Pensacola this morning, had to wear my winter gear for PT this morning. Always have to keep one eye open though.

[Vortex]

The angle at which the cyclone turns NE looking at the forecast at H240 will be critical to south florida..Anything from a miss, brush or hit will depend on how far west this system is when it begins the turn...The persistant westerlies are not unsual for October but the strength appears abit agressive(GFS)..more novemberish...

[gatorcane]

Just take a look at the 200mb chart on the GFS...The westerlies are screaming across the Gulf including S.Florida the entire time, leaving the door closed for the Gulf. The models have been showing this same scenario for well over a week. Nothing will get into the Gulf with those westerlies.

It may be Cane season is over for the U.S, and fall came early. Down right cold in Pensacola this morning, had to wear my winter gear for PT this morning. Always have to keep one eye open though.

Lows are in the 70s here in South FL, though not as hot as summer, still the SSTs are plenty warm. The Westerlies are screaming about the system would be a typical slow developing October system that slowly moves NNW into the NW Caribbean. We are talking about 10 days from now when it would be in the NW Caribbean, by then the westerlies may not be down into South FL or the Southern GOM. This is South Florida's hurricane season now, so we will watch closely. Wilma is just one example of what October systems can bring for us.

[Vortex]

anytime you have the potential for a strengthening storm over the NW carribean in mid october SFL had better take note....