Caribbean - Central America Weather

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Gustywind
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6861 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:47 am

msbee wrote:Good mornign Luis

Yes, another wet one Luis

currently we are having heavy rain and wind here

Be safe and dry!
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6862 Postby msbee » Tue Oct 05, 2010 7:13 am

Thanks Gusty
We're Ok.
that "little" shower dumped about 1/2 inch of rain on us though in one half hour.

By my rough calculations with my little unreliable rain gauge we have now had over 4 inches of rain since Sunday night
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6863 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 7:22 am

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
741 AM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

VIC020-030-051430-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0456.101005T1141Z-101005T1430Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-
741 AM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS

* UNTIL 1030 AM AST

* AT 732 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED PERSISTENT RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
FROM THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF GUT...URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS... STREETS AND UNDERPASSES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6470 1830 6509 1831 6511 1843 6510
1843 6498 1841 6465 1830 6463

$$

ER
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6864 Postby Macrocane » Tue Oct 05, 2010 10:03 am

Lowest minimum temperature in San Salvador since early March

This morning is another cool and windy morning in El Salvador, some places like San Salvador and San Miguel have experienced their lowest temperature in 7 months. Some minimum temperatures this morning:

San Salvador 17.2°C (63°F)
Las Pilas 11.9 °C (53.4°F)
San Miguel 20.9°C (69.6°F)
La Union 21.5°C (70.7°F)

And some more in other parts of Central America:

Guatemala city (Guatemala) 13 °C (55.5°F)
Quetzaltenango (Gutemala) 6°C (42.8°F)
Tegucigalpa (Honduras) 15°C (59°F)
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6865 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 11:05 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1130 AM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

.UPDATE...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT
JOHN. THIS ACTIVITY IS RELATED TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THAT IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THE DAY PROGRESS...
MORE FREQUENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THE BROAD CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS LOW DID HOWEVER BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
OVER PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AFTER NOON.
IN ADDITION...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WEST SOUTHWEST
RESULTING IN AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND LATER TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF SITES OF TIST...TISX...TKPK AND TNCM WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE TEMPO MVFR/PSBL IFR CONDS....AS SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPREAD ACROSS NE
CARIBBEAN. CONDS AT THE REMAINDER OF TAF SITES AND EN ROUTE BTW PR
WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS AFT 05/16Z.
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS REMAIN PSBL OVR THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AFT
05/16Z. LVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 25 KNOTS... WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6866 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 12:24 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
112 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

PRC049-147-052015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0458.101005T1712Z-101005T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CULEBRA PR-VIEQUES PR-
112 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 111 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING
OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS
COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1821 6531 1816 6524 1809 6526 1806 6560
1824 6549 1821 6531 1831 6543 1838 6538
1835 6520 1827 6522

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
110 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

VIC020-030-052015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0457.101005T1710Z-101005T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-
110 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS

* UNTIL 415 PM AST

* AT 109 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED PERSISTENT RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE ADVISORY AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...AND LOW SPOTS IN
HIGHWAYS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1828 6470 1828 6499 1831 6508 1840 6508
1840 6466 1836 6463 1831 6463

$$

ER
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6867 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 12:59 pm

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
132 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

AMZ710-715-722-725-732-735-052030-
132 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...

AT 126 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SERIES OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG GUSTS WINDS OF 25 TO 35
KNOTS... LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY HIGHER AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
OVER COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM...OR
ABOUT 18 NM EAST OF CULEBRA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN
WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL
OBJECTS.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN
EASILY OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE
HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 1701 6668 1788 6630 1802 6582 1950 6458
1950 6401 1700 6401

$$

E
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6868 Postby bvigal » Tue Oct 05, 2010 1:31 pm

It's raining... a lot. We are under a FF-WARNING. The radar doesn't seem to be measuring most of it, and I don't have a gage, but I'm sure we've had an inch CONSERVATIVELY since about 8am, and two inches would not surprise me at all. At least for the moment my power is on. It's only been off 1 time so far today.... (knock wood). The daily multiple power outages (3 times yesterday, over 4 hours) have nothing to do with weather.

Winds haven't been too bad here, but I'm protected from S/SW/SE and once they come around to E/NE/N I'll feel it. I'm sure some flooding has occurred, or some rocks have slid, hopefully no one hurt.

Stay safe and dry, my neighbors!
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6869 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 1:56 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

PRC001-013-039-047-054-073-081-091-101-141-143-145-052145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0459.101005T1845Z-101005T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-FLORIDA PR-JAYUYA PR-ADJUNTAS PR-MOROVIS PR-
UTUADO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-LARES PR-MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-ARECIBO PR-
245 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...COROZAL...FLORIDA...JAYUYA...ADJUNTAS...MOROVIS...
UTUADO...VEGA ALTA...LARES...MANATI...VEGA BAJA AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 240 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAD FALLEN ACROSS SECTIONS OF
UTUADO...CIALES AND MOROVIS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS
COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1832 6684 1840 6638 1831 6634 1819 6682

$$

ER
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6870 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 2:03 pm

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
240 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

PRC023-067-097-125-060215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0037.101005T1840Z-101006T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-SAN GERMAN PR-CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
240 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
CABO ROJO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
HORMIGUEROS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MAYAGUEZ MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HORMIGUEROS...
SAN GERMAN MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SAN GERMAN...

* UNTIL 1015 PM AST

* AT 209 PM AST...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS INDICATED THAT THE LEVEL OF THE RIO
GUANAJIBO REMAINED NEAR FLOOD STAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ONCE AGAIN OCCURRING IN THE RIO
GUANAJIBO BASIN...AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN
THE HORMIGUEROS AND SAN GERMAN AREAS WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL. THIS
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE THE RIVER TO RISE TO FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

EXPECT FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS ALONG THE BANKS OF THE RIO
GUANAJIBO FROM SAN GERMAN TO MAYAGUEZ. RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO
CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER
TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO
ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1812 6719 1817 6718 1821 6704 1815 6698
1805 6698

$$

AAS
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6871 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 2:33 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

PRC029-031-087-119-139-052230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0460.101005T1929Z-101005T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-CANOVANAS PR-CAROLINA PR-LOIZA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
329 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
TRUJILLO ALTO...CANOVANAS...CAROLINA...LOIZA AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 328 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAD FALLEN ACROSS SECTIONS OF
CAROLINA AND LOIZA. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1846 6603 1846 6592 1842 6587 1838 6592
1834 6600

$$

EM
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6872 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 3:15 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

PRC049-147-060015-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0458.000000T0000Z-101006T0015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CULEBRA PR-VIEQUES PR-
410 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

* UNTIL 815 PM AST

* AT 408 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED PERSISTENT RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THESE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE
CULVERTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1821 6531 1816 6524 1809 6526 1806 6560
1824 6549 1821 6531 1831 6543 1838 6538
1835 6520 1827 6522

$$

ER
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
407 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

VIC020-030-060015-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0457.000000T0000Z-101006T0015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT JOHN VI-SAINT THOMAS VI-
407 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT JOHN AND SAINT THOMAS

* UNTIL 815 PM AST

* AT 406 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED PERSISTENT RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THESE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
FROM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND GUTS...AND LOW SPOTS IN
HIGHWAYS. ADDITIONALLY...ROADS AND LAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS
AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
ALSO...MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1828 6470 1828 6499 1831 6508 1840 6508
1840 6466 1836 6463 1831 6463

$$

ER
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6873 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 3:31 pm


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
423 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BECOME
LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED
AGAIN OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WEAKENING TUTT LOW. HOWEVER...
OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED FROM MAINLY DIURNAL PROCESSES WHILE BANDS
AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST IN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AFFECTED CULEBRA AND
VIEQUES...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO...BUT
EXPECT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SIMILAR AREAL SET-UP TO WHAT OCCURRED TODAY.

EXPECT THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...WITH AN OCTOBER MONSOONAL
TYPE FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
PROBABLY SATURDAY ALSO.

AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC PATTERNS LIKE THIS ONE
HAVE YIELDED SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...AREAS OF FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING...AND MUDSLIDES...AND
GIVEN EXPECTED WEATHER AND ANTECEDENT GROUND AND RIVER
CONDITIONS...BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE CASE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH...THAT ALTHOUGH ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME. THUS...
STILL EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL TO
CONTINUE AND HAVE LEFT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE.

ADDITIONALLY...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FACING COASTAL AREAS...AS ATYPICAL SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE PROBABLY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY...AND THIS COULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN COASTAL
PROBLEMS ALONG SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST FACING COASTAL AREAS...SUCH AS
FREDERICKSTED AND LIME TREE BAY IN ST CROIX.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPORARY MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE VI...TJSJ...TNCM...AND TKPK AT LEAST THROUGH 06/00Z IN A
PASSING SHRA OR TSRA. AFT 06/00Z...MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST
OF THE TAF SITES...AS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PREVAILING
SOUTHWESTERLY LVL WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS TO
35 KTS NEAR +TSRAS AND +SHRAS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING INTO EFFECT FOR SEVERAL
ZONES THIS EVENING...DUE TO FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE UPCOMING SJUCWFSJU FOR THE LATEST
FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 88 / 70 70 60 60
STT 78 86 78 86 / 90 80 60 60
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6874 Postby msbee » Tue Oct 05, 2010 3:33 pm

OMG
we are getting bombarded here
total white out
high winds.
heavy rain
thunder
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6875 Postby msbee » Tue Oct 05, 2010 4:02 pm

2 inches of rain in a little over an hour
that is adding up to over 7 inches since Sunday night
Be careful out there, folks
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6876 Postby bvigal » Tue Oct 05, 2010 4:19 pm

Stay safe, Barbara!

We are getting it too. Just had bad squall with 35+kt sustained wind for a while, horizontal rain, my closed windows were rattling. The rain has quit now, but wind still gusting fairly strong. This is the first real wind today at my house. Our Flash Flood WARNING has been extended until 10pm. Word on the boards is the ghuts are full, someone said "as deep as any river". That means flat areas and some critical roads are flooded. I'm expecting the power to go any minute, already out in other areas. Just off phone with a rain expert (his gage lost in Earl, but he's good at estimating), he said we've had AT LEAST 3" today.
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6877 Postby msbee » Tue Oct 05, 2010 4:48 pm

you be careful too, bvigal.
this is only going to get worse until it safely passes us. we have flooded roads and overflowing ghuts too.
At mid day it looked for awhile like it was clearing up here, but then all of a sudden the heavy rains started again.
Right now it has let up, but that's the way this thing has been going. Very heavy storms, then it stops for awhile in between, and then you get zapped again.

hope your power stays on
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6878 Postby bvigal » Tue Oct 05, 2010 4:58 pm

msbee wrote:you be careful too, bvigal.
this is only going to get worse until it safely passes us. we have flooded roads and overflowing ghuts too.
At mid day it looked for awhile like it was clearing up here, but then all of a sudden the heavy rains started again.
Right now it has let up, but that's the way this thing has been going. Very heavy storms, then it stops for awhile in between, and then you get zapped again.

hope your power stays on
Me too! Because one thing's for sure, nobody is going out to fix any power lines in this weather! :lol:
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Watching rain event in Eastern Caribbean

#6879 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:47 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
637 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

VIC010-060130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0461.101005T2237Z-101006T0130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAINT CROIX VI-
637 PM AST TUE OCT 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLAND...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SAINT CROIX

* UNTIL 930 PM AST

* AT 636 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED PERSISTENT RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THIS ISLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE
CULVERTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1766 6465 1763 6482 1764 6491 1776 6495
1782 6481 1782 6473 1780 6457 1773 6455

$$

EM
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#6880 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:53 pm

Image
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