ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Red)

#361 Postby bvigal » Tue Oct 05, 2010 4:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:Here's a surface plot with satellite. Definitely not tropical in appearance. As for it "not affecting any land areas", I think that the people across the NE Caribbean should know that its effects extend quite far from the low-level center. Though the NE Caribbean would not get any strong sustained wind from such a development, that trailing trof may continue to produce heavy rain across PR and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands for another day or two.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/otto1.gif

Hi Wxman57!! Thanks for another of your great surface maps/sat combo!!

You are correct, the people across NE Carib DO know that effects extend far out, because we can see them out the window. Flash-flooding in the islands, and the marine conditions are hazardous. (Mariners don't care if winds are sustained or in gusts, a blowdown takes but a minute.) The rain most of the day was windless, even while heavy, but that has changed in the last hour. Here at 1100ft, despite protection from SSE to SW, having wind gusts over 40kt, and some brief periods of sustained wind in squalls near 35kt and my windows were rattling. Down the hill my neighbor says AT LEAST 3" of rain since this morning, and I know that St. Martin, St. Kitts, Guadeloupe, etc. have had much more rain than we have!! Everyone in EC is saturated, that's for sure.
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#362 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:00 pm

WTNT21 KNGU 052000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.6N 65.7W TO 24.0N 68.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10KTS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 84 TO 86
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 062000Z.//
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#363 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:02 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Red)

#364 Postby bvigal » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:09 pm

Buoy 41043 at 21.061 N 64.966 W

Conditions at 41043 as of
2150 GMT on 10/05/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.0 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.64 in <------------------------------------
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.1 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.5 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 89.8 °F
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Red)

#365 Postby msbee » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:25 pm

we are almost submerged here. I thought it was clearing up mid day but this afternoon we have had torrential rains.
My gauge registered 2 inches in a little over an hour today.
We have had over 7 inches since Sunday night in my area.
and it looks liker more still coming. The roads here are all flooded out and the guts are overflowing.
i think everyone is safe though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Red)

#366 Postby Ikester » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:39 pm

Very Allison-esk. I really hope they don't decide to name this thing. Personally, they need to stick with naming TROPICAL cyclones. They used to not name them. Now-a-days it seems that if it has a gust to 39 mph....<slams fist down on table> NAME IT!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Red)

#367 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:40 pm

Ikester wrote:Very Allison-esk. I really hope they don't decide to name this thing. Personally, they need to stick with naming TROPICAL cyclones. They used to not name them. Now-a-days it seems that if it has a gust to 39 mph....<slams fist down on table> NAME IT!


It's a TROPICAL CYCLONE, sheared, but a TROPICAL CYCLONE!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Red)

#368 Postby Ikester » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:42 pm

Oh please, this thing has sub-tropical written all over it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Red)

#369 Postby HUC » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:46 pm

mse thknk's fot your observation..The rai is now for you!!!Nere a squall line from the SO guve gusty winds and 20 to 50mm (2 inc) more.
Here in the islands despite the non TD stage,we are expériencing,i repeat, TD effectswith sometimes gusts well above storm force ( like the 104kh yesterday at la Desirada ( sure the anemeter is facing the open ocean ,but it's representative of strong gusts on sea ).
So stay safe
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Red)

#370 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:47 pm

Ikester wrote:Oh please, this thing has sub-tropical written all over it.


We would need a temperature reading of the core. The buoy next to it says Air Temperature, 82F
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Red)

#371 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:59 pm

This is like a traffic jam in a expressway.I can tell the world that so far,even though, Puerto Rico has recieved some high amounts of precipitation, no major flooding problems have occured so far, as it has been much less than what the islands to our east have endured so far.Only one report of a mudslide in a town of center PR and that is it so far. Is like PR is in the fringes of that expressway, but until when that will continue or PR will get into the heavy stuff? I guess time will tell. To my friends downstream in the islands, stay safe and dry.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Red)

#372 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:09 pm

I think that the point to be made is that it is deep tropical moisture. It doesn't matter if the low center itself is tropical or subtropical in nature. Deep tropical moisture can produce very heavy rainfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Red)

#373 Postby bvigal » Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:17 pm

The windows are rattling and the roof is creaking in the strongest gusts. Those gusts getting up to 50kt now, and few trees left from Earl to block the wind. Just spoke to someone down at the marina (sea level) on south side and they are getting SW wind with gusts to 35+kt. I can't believe my power is still on, so many are without, but have filled the bathtub to have water to flush the toilet if it goes out. (water pump) :wink:
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#374 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:27 pm

It may not have a name, but residents there should treat this like a very wet tropical storm.
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#375 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:30 pm

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#376 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:32 pm

Yeah its clearly producing alot of moisture but I'd be very amazed to see it getting called a pure tropical storm, it looks like a subtropical low, esp the linear nature of the convection. Still its a big ole region of convection and there probably is a little while left till we shunt the rain out of the way...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Red)

#377 Postby bvigal » Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:39 pm

So, will 8pm stay at 80%, or go up, or go down?
I think it will stay at 80%.
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#378 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:40 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Red)

#379 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:40 pm

bvigal wrote:So, will 8pm stay at 80%, or go up, or go down?
I think it will stay at 80%.


Agreed I think it will stay there. To go to 90% would be very high confidence and to 100% means almost committed to advisories at 11.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - (Code Red)

#380 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:56 pm

Stays at 80%

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN ELONGATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL...AND THE LOW
APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IT DOES
NOT CURRENTLY HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
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