WPAC: INVEST 96W

[StormingB81]

I am shocked on this one. It is located right next to 14W! at 19N and 108E...I would show a photo but where I am at I cannot post photos on here.

[StormingB81]

and JTWC posted a final warning....Could that have posted a fina w arning and then marked it an Invest????

[Chacor]

No. If they continue to monitor, they do not change designations unless there is reason to do so.

[supercane]

Both JMA and KMA have this as a TD. JMA 00Z analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 19N 111E NE SLOWLY.

PGTW (JTWC) only has T1.0 though, and KNES T1.5:
TPPN10 PGTW 090023
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (SE OF HAINAN)
B. 08/2330Z
C. 19.0N
D. 110.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
1.0 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ROSS

TXPN21 KNES 082103
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)
B. 08/2030Z
C. 20.3N
D. 111.6E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SFC WIND FIELDS FROM SFC OBS...SHIPS...AND ASCAT SHOW
HINTS OF BROAD BUT WEAK CLOSED CIRCULATION OFFSHORE OF HAINAN ISLAND
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. OVERSHOOTING TOPS
AND ACTIVE CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CLUSTER WRAPS .3 ON LOG10
FOR DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.5. PT IS 1.5.FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...GALLINA
=




From earlier JTWC summary at 14Z, new one to come out shortly.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.7N
108.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 109.1E, TRACKING ALONG THE COAST
OF HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE EAST. A 080153Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION OVER THE
ISLAND WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF HAINAN ISLAND ARE REPORTING A MEAN SURFACE LEVEL
PRESSURE OF 1006 MB WITH 06 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[supercane]

JMA still carrying this as a TD. 12Z analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 20N 111E NE SLOWLY.

ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZOCT2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.4N
109.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 110.9E, APPROXIMATELY 15 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF HAINAN ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 090019Z AMSU IMAGE SHOW A WEAK EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ZJHK, LOCATED ABOUT 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER, CONTINUE TO INDICATE 10-15 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP NEAR 1005 MB
SUPPORTING THE POOR ASSESSMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS POOR.



Nice circulation on ASCAT:


Both PGTW and KNES cannot find circulation center, so no Dvorak.
TPPN10 PGTW 091206
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (SE OF HAINAN)
B. 09/1130Z
C. XX.X
D. XXX.X
E. N/A/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
UEHARA

[supercane]

18Z JMA analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 20N 112E NE SLOWLY.



Dvorak classifications T2.0 from KNES and T1.0 from PGTW:
TXPN21 KNES 092104
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)
B. 09/2030Z
C. 20.3N
D. 111.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSRE/AMSU
H. REMARKS...1419Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT SOME SORT OF LLC CAN BE
SEEN JUST OFFSHORE OF HAINAN AND SUBSEQUENT AMSRE/AMSU PASSES SHOW N-S
BANDING FEATURES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE COMPLEX AND ENE-WSW BANDING
FEATURES ON THE NORTH SIDE. THIS IS INDICATIVE THAT THE LLC IS NE OF
THE ISLAND BUT COULD BE SOME SORT OF HYBRID WITH A FORMER BAROCLINIC
FRONTAL ZONE ENHANCED BY A OFFSHORE CONVERGENCE ZONE PARALLEL TO THE
SE CHINESE COASTLINE. STILL CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AND STRONG
WARRANTING CLASSIFICATION... BANDING METHOD YIELDS DT OF 2.0 FOR BROKEN
.5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. MET IS 2.5. PT IS 2.0 WITH UNCLEAR DT AND MET
(DUE TO LAND INTERACTION) THE FT BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
09/1756Z 20.4N 111.5E AMSRE
09/1821Z 20.5N 111.8E AMSU
...GALLINA
=



TPPN10 PGTW 091825
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (E OF HAINAN)
B. 09/1730Z
C. 20.0N
D. 111.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/18HRS STT: S0.0/12HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING 1.0 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
ROSS

[KWT]

A very interesting system, TD or not its clearly convectivly very active and thats going to be the main story obviously with this system...

[StormingB81]

I wonder how much rain the have had on th coast since it hasnt moved much.

[supercane]

00Z JMA analysis:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 20N 111E NORTH SLOWLY.



PGTW Dvorak still T1.0:

TPPN10 PGTW 100013
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (E OF HAINAN)
B. 09/2330Z
C. 20.8N
D. 111.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING 1.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/1820Z 20.0N 111.8E MMHS
09/2015Z 20.3N 111.9E TRMM
09/2132Z 20.5N 111.9E SSMI
ROSS

[supercane]

JMA still holding on to this as a TD as of 12Z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 21N 112E ALMOST STATIONARY

But system is off NRL site, and JTWC no longer interested in system:
ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZOCT2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.3N
110.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

In fact, last KNES Dvorak thought it was only a trough:
TXPN21 KNES 100311
SIMWIR
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)
B. 10/0230Z
C. 20.7N
D. 112.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. TOO WEAK
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU
H. REMARKS...MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
THE DISTURBANCE IS MERELY A TROF AXIS WITH NO DISCERNIBLE CLOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. POSITION PROVIDED IS SIMPLY BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
=