ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[BatzVI]

.CLIMATE....AS OF MIDNIGHT AST ON 5 OCT 2010...6.61 INCHES OF
RAINFALL HAD ACCUMULATED AT THE SAINT THOMAS CYRIL E. KING
AIRPORT IN CHARLOTTE AMALIE...MAKING IT THE 5TH WETTEST DAY ON
SAINT THOMAS SINCE RECORD KEEPING BEGAN...AND THE WETTEST DAY
SINCE SEPTEMBER 15TH 2004 WHEN JEANNE TRACKED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS


It rained all night, and from what I saw on the NWS San Juan "storm total" radar, we're at 8+ inches...lots of road problems here...still no power....Governor has asked everyone to stay off the roads due to down trees and mudslides.

[HURAKAN]

06/1145 UTC 22.4N 66.5W ST2.5 17L -- Atlantic

2.5 = 35 knots

[KWT]

Probably will be upgraded to STS Otto soon but as Wxman57 said it does look like its becoming increasingly tropical in nature.

If it does turn tropical with its motion out to the ENE it probably has a shot shot at becoming a minimal hurricane, seen it happen numerous amounts of time.

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

AL, 17, 2010100612, , BEST, 0, 227N, 677W, 30, 1001, SD

remains at 30 knots

[Macrocane]

I really like to track subtropical systems, the way they develop is really interesting and they're even more interesting if they transition to tropical like STD 17 is doing I agree with you and it could be TS Otto later today, maybe STS Otto in the 2nd advisory and TS in the 3rd one.

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

Still looks a little too much like a Subtropical system but it does seem to be alot closer today then it did yesterday.

[tolakram]

Where's the LLC?

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[HURAKAN]

Where's the LLC?

Yeah, I don't see a well-defined LLC. There's a broad LLC, but don't see a well-defined one.

[plasticup]

Where's the LLC?

Yeah, I don't see a well-defined LLC. There's a broad LLC, but don't see a well-defined one.

It looked to be tightening up for a while, but I'm not so sure anymore.

[DanKellFla]

With the way the storm is moving, it has about 24 hours to develop the LLC and become tropical. At this point I give it fifty-fifty. Sure is interesting to watch.

[HURAKAN]

981
NOUS42 KNHC 061300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT WED 06 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-127

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[HURAKAN]

Discussion:

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE
AROUND 18Z...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

we got RECON soon

[msbee]

it's still raining heavily here with thunder and gusty wind.

10:00 AM report from the airport says heavy rain showers with the wind from the south at 23 MPH.

My backyard rain gauge has collected 1.5 inches of rain since 8:30 AM.

[wxman57]

Here's the position of the "center" as per the 10AM NHC discussion:

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

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[Cyclone1]

I can't say it looks good, but it certainly looks like a thing, whatever that thing may be.