ATL: OTTO - Recon Discussion

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ATL: OTTO - Recon Discussion

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 06, 2010 11:20 am

Will they find Otto? It's possible, in my opinion.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:20 pm

190830 2345N 06906W 9641 00305 9989 +205 +074 014037 039 052 039 00
190900 2344N 06905W 9636 00309 9988 +199 +075 027037 041 060 051 00
190930 2342N 06904W 9619 00325 9987 +208 +075 030038 040 049 025 00

surface winds can't be stronger than flight level winds.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:30 pm

192600 2307N 06818W 9636 00251 9917 +232 +132 057011 011 000 003 00

wow, 992 mb, very impressive
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#4 Postby HenkL » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:31 pm

SFMR often shows (too) strong winds, when there is a high rain rate at the same time.
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:39 pm

192900 2259N 06813W 9614 00266 9911 +234 +139 164011 013 /// /// 03

991 mb
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#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:40 pm

Intensity is probably 40 kt based on FL winds and the non-contaminated SFMR.
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#7 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:48 pm

they could easily go 45kts..


193800 2236N 06840W 9647 00266 9950 +200 +142 295053 057 045 007 00
193830 2235N 06841W 9624 00288 9952 +195 +136 296056 058 048 011 00
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:50 pm

Even 50 knots doesn't look that bad.
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#9 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:52 pm

From VDM
SFMR INTERMITTANT BUT FL WINDS MATCH VISUAL WINDS WHERE CLOUDS PERMIT VISUAL
55 KTS SFC WNDS SEEN VISUALLY IN SW QUAD
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#10 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:54 pm

45kts is certainly possible though given the systems profile I'm pretty confident there won't be a very good FL/SFC ratio given there is alot of dry air about. Still 40-45kts probably is reasonable based on the SFMR reports as well.
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Re:

#11 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:54 pm

KWT wrote:45kts is certainly possible though given the systems profile I'm pretty confident there won't be a very good FL/SFC ratio given there is alot of dry air about. Still 40-45kts probably is reasonable based on the SFMR reports as well.


read the VDM...
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#12 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 06, 2010 2:57 pm

Interesting Aric, if thats the case then it clearly is still far more STS then tropical...

Highest winds with the deep convection, I'd still say no way can you go any higher then 45kts though without dropsonde confirmation.
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Re:

#13 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 06, 2010 3:01 pm

KWT wrote:Interesting Aric, if thats the case then it clearly is still far more STS then tropical...

Highest winds with the deep convection, I'd still say no way can you go any higher then 45kts though without dropsonde confirmation.



well the temp profile looks pretty good. maybe a little flat but clearly has somewhat of a warmer core.
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