What is the future of this season?

[psyclone]

you got that right sanibel. as much as i want to say it's dead for us i can't... yet. but i sure want to sprint for the finish line.

[boca]

Alright I'll say it its dead for us in the US is over.

[KWT]

Still time for the pattern to flip come late October but the door is closing that is for sure, esp if the next 10-15 days remain progged as they are.

[ConvergenceZone]

So, what happened to all the posts stating that the season was going to go strong well into December? lol

[psyclone]

it still could but that doesn't mean the US will be threatened. the folks closing the door are referring to a US threat. we could easily have a late storm or 2 with a michelle or paloma type track.

[Sanibel]

The GOM got a real cool down from the chilly front last night, but that isn't where the October systems come from.

[northjaxpro]

Actually, it can remain active down in the Caribbean through now up into December. SST's were near record levels in the Caribbean Sea, and shear levels down there currently are at favorable levels conducive for development. Tropical cyclones certainly can develop in that region and effect Central America and the islands in the Caribbean. But, as we are seeing right now, the current upper level pattern will effectively keep any tropical cyclones confined deep in the Caribbean or well out in the SW Atlantic basin and curve them well NE-E out to sea away from the CONUS.

I think we will still probably see at least three more tropical cyclones to develop before the official end of the season November 30. There is still an outside chance that South Florida could be impacted by one of these systems should a change in the upper pattern evolves in the next couple of weeks. But, as of now, the cool and dry upper level pattern over the Eastern CONUS looks to be locked into place for at least the next 7-10 days.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm just saying that the posts regarding the "really active through december" seem to have diminished. Before there were many posts regarding how the season will be "very active" right on through december.

Now I'm hearing that we may only get a couple more storms yet between now and December, which is a big change from the "very active" comments earlier...
I have to toot my horn, because I always get slammed when I'm wrong, so now I have to do the slamming....

[northjaxpro]

I'm just saying that the posts regarding the "really active through december" seem to have diminished. Before there were many posts regarding how the season will be "very active" right on through december.

Now I'm hearing that we may only get a couple more storms yet between now and December, which is a big change from the "very active" comments earlier...
I have to toot my horn, because I always get slammed when I'm wrong, so now I have to do the slamming....

Nothing wrong with tooting your horn LOL.. I think we will end up with at least 18 total name storms for the season, which will be about what was expected by the experts before the start of the season. A very active season which hopefully will end with the United States being extremely blessed and fortunate of not being impacted by a major hurricane.

[psyclone]

it also depends on how you define active. considering many novembers feature no named storms one could consider a november with any named storms active. at this point it's not like we need a boatload of activity to get the 17 or 18 named storms many were calling for. what is amazing to me is the lack of US hits. i thought for sure someone stateside was gonna pay rent this year in the form a big landfaller and so far we've escaped.

[Florida1118]

I'm just saying that the posts regarding the "really active through december" seem to have diminished. Before there were many posts regarding how the season will be "very active" right on through december.

Now I'm hearing that we may only get a couple more storms yet between now and December, which is a big change from the "very active" comments earlier...
I have to toot my horn, because I always get slammed when I'm wrong, so now I have to do the slamming....

Were did you here that? Its been kinda inactive for a little bit, but we still have the 2nd peak around the 15th...and from what ive heard, each storm in the carribean will leave a low to form into something else. You never know...there maybe more Subtropicals forming late.

[StormClouds63]

Unless there's a dramatic change, 2010 = season of "re-curves" (Atlantic) and "shear" (Gulf of Mexico). Igor probably the signature storm for 2010.

[ConvergenceZone]

Were did you here that? Its been kinda inactive for a little bit, but we still have the 2nd peak around the 15th...and from what ive heard, each storm in the carribean will leave a low to form into something else. You never know...there maybe more Subtropicals forming late.

It's just that every year, there are those that claim the season will be really active until December, but very seldom does it ever play out that way, and I"m not talking about 1 or 2 storms, of course that can happen.

[KWT]

CZ, we've already had 1TS and we are 7 days into October, indeed we've had 3 storms in the last 14 days which is for the time of year a pretty quick rate.

I'd still bet anything on a major in the Caribbean at some point in the next 45 days.

I personally consider anything past the 20th of September as the latter part of the season...so if we use that guideline lets look at some other big seasons pof the past and what they had number wise from 20th September till the end of the season:

1887: 9/5/0
1916: 4/2/1
1933: 6/2/1
1969: 10/6/1
1995: 6/4/2
2005: 11/5/2

And lets look where we they on the 7th October:

1887: 1/0/0
1916: 2/0/0
1933: 3/1/1
1969: 5/3/1
1995: 3/2/1
2005: 3/1/0
2010: 4/1/0

So as you can see we are right on track with having a very active latter part of the season, typically you will see 50-60% more activity from what you have in the period between 20th Sep-7th Oct which would put us as 8/2/0....in theory but obviously it doesn't always work out that way.

[ConvergenceZone]

KWT, you are right about October, I'm talking more about November and December. I just don't
believe it's going to be really active in November and December. I can't be wrong, but we'll see.

[KWT]

Well November and December is clearly abit like May/June, having a La Nina in place increases the risk for latter season storms and usually you will get the odd storm in there but even in the most active seasons activity can be a little hit and miss by that time in the season.

[Steve]

>>I have to toot my horn, because I always get slammed when I'm wrong, so now I have to do the slamming....

Dude. Don't ruin whatever face you have left. You don't even have a peg-leg to stand on.

>>It's just that every year, there are those that claim the season will be really active until December, but very seldom does it ever play out that way, and I"m not talking about 1 or 2 storms, of course that can happen.

That's spun about as badly as a 24 hour news channel trying to seem non-biased. Certain people who let you have some of the business never called for a super active fall including into December. Then again, it's not even November yet, so you don't know any more than you did in August when you joined the ranks of Storms Centers and other ADHD posters who shot their own credibility Kurt Cobain style because they weren't patient enough to see how wrong they were and how stupid their posts came off. Nobody knows everything, but the b.s. that was being declared here on storm2k was embarrassing. And you took part in that. While the synoptics were there for a western-biased season, you were trying to be Super Smart Message Board Guy. But you failed. Now you're going to come back in early October and wonder where the "Active into December" posts are?

Well guess what. I never said the season was going to be active into December. But I did read far too many of your posts to know that it's pretty outrageous of you to come in here and try to bag on anyone else after what you put out this season. Best I could give, as noted above, was that we were in for a busy season, the storms would be western biased, there was a significant threat to most of the SE US and Mexico, and that I would be watching and waiting.

You don't win a prize for being lucky around here. You certainly don't gain credibility for that either. It's pretty obvious who is worth reading around here and which posters blow a lot of hot air. There's also too much attention whoring. You've got posters making proclimations that aren't remotely within reality. They're like a guy driving around in a Ferrari to compensate for lacking body parts or whatever. It's ignorant. But thankfully, vboutex and mfdolphin have put in an ignore list where you can put worthless posters. Clearly you didn't make that list, but if you want people to take anything you say seriously rather than thinking you're just another wormy, internet humanoid trying to guess right or be right, I'd recommend you do a little less prognosticating and pontificating.

Signed,

Credibility

[Ntxw]

Well November and December is clearly abit like May/June, having a La Nina in place increases the risk for latter season storms and usually you will get the odd storm in there but even in the most active seasons activity can be a little hit and miss by that time in the season.

Couldn't have said it better. La Nina also features earlier cold fronts and dry air on the continent as well which many forget. This has a tendency to squeeze out energy in the Caribbean hence can still be active there as climo has shown but the trough's are taking over too much north of the Antilles to really post a huge threat to the continental US past October.

[KWT]

Yeah I think the door is starting to close on a big threat towards even Florida now, but there is obviously still a threat as long as the Caribbean can pump out systems, seems to me in general conditions north of 25N aren't really all that good anymore at least near the US which makes sense given the position of the troughing.

Probably still another 2 weeks of prime time threat before it really starts to decrease though, so I suppose you could argue thats plenty of time...

[ConvergenceZone]

Steve, you are missing the point...It's about owning up to it when one is wrong. I owened up to the fact that the total number of storms I predicted was too low.(I said about 12), but I also said that I didn't think it was going to remain really active until December based upon all of the troughs and hostile conditions out there, and how much difficulty recently waves were having getting going. So you can call it luck if you want, that's your choice, but I based my opinion on the conditions and what resulted when we had conditions like that in prior years....


What I'm saying is that people seem to have an easier time slamming someone if their predictions are wrong about an active season. That's fine, but then they should also expect to hear about it if not much happens between October and December(even though it was forecasted by some)....don't you agree???? Funny how it's one sided that way.....