Disturbance in the western Caribbean (Is invest 98L)

[Vortex]

12Z NAM more bullish the last few runs..


loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Vortex]

I also expect that as we close off an organized low over the next day or 2 the model consensus in the medium range will grow in terms of any potential threat...IMO, I expect it to either get picked up middle of next week and head NE across Cuba then FL/bahamas OR get left behind then who knows....

[Vortex]

I think the 20N/85W benchmark will be critical in terms of any keys/sfl threat...85 and west then a possible US impact, East of 85W and 20N likely not given the pattern...climatology is pretty clustered around a western cuba/sfl/west bahamas type threat for the period October 10th-20th given where this system may set up shop...

[Sanibel]

This is the second time the convection in the west Caribbean has shown a twist. Like last time I think it is cosmetic and not associated with any surface feature - but since it has persisted it has to be watched.


NAM spins up a classic October system originating in the very southwestern Caribbean.

[Evil Jeremy]

I know this is far from becoming any kind of organized TC, but this sort of looks like a cyclone with an inner core on WV. I know its not, but its a cool appearance.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

[Sanibel]

[CourierPR]

I also expect that as we close off an organized low over the next day or 2 the model consensus in the medium range will grow in terms of any potential threat...IMO, I expect it to either get picked up middle of next week and head NE across Cuba then FL/bahamas OR get left behind then who knows....

AccuWeather basically said the same thing with regard to possible track either into CA or Cuba, SFL, and Bahamas.

[jlauderdal]

I just watched tropical video on AccuWeather and Met. Mark Mancuso indicated that this will probably be Paula by next week.

did mark mancuso say where he thought it was going?

[Blown Away]

TAFB has a surface low in 72 hours and it's stationary compared to previous forecast which had this low moving towards CA. IMO this area should be an Invest soon.



HPC has this low moving from the SW Caribbean over the coast of Honduras/Nicaragua into the NW Caribbean in 7 days.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html

[Florida1118]

IMO it should be 20% and invested by now...may happen at 2.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z gfs has the NW Caribbean TC back. However, unfortunately for those who want action, the TC never gets strong and falls apart pretty quickly. But, hey, it is a (re)start, folks, from the dreadfully boring last few gfs runs.

[GCANE]

Flare-up north of Panama looks interesting.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 13&lon=-82

[Vortex]

12Z H114 interesting days ahead....




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS continues to advertise shear ripping across the Gulf and S.Florida. Anything trying to organize and head that way will get ripped apart.

According to the GFS, very unfavorable conditions will be with us all the way to October 23rd.

[Blown Away]

12Z H114 interesting days ahead....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

HPC seems to be in agreement tracking the low towards the NW Caribbean which would put this low in a position that increases a SFL strike!

[gatorcane]

12z GFS continues to advertise shear ripping across the Gulf and S.Florida. Anything trying to organize and head that way will get ripped apart.

According to the GFS, very unfavorable conditions will be with us all the way to October 23rd.

How much faith do you really put into those shear forecasts especially 2 weeks out!?!

Though I will say it's quite cool here even in S. FL. Hard to believe we can get impacted by anything the rest of the season buts its way too early to say this at this point.

[gatorcane]

12Z H114 interesting days ahead....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

HPC seems to be in agreement tracking the low towards the NW Caribbean which would put this low in a position that increases a SFL strike!

Yeah but look what happens to this low after that....notice it gets ripped apart by westerly shear, and ends up being a remnant low near South FL.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS continues to advertise shear ripping across the Gulf and S.Florida. Anything trying to organize and head that way will get ripped apart.

According to the GFS, very unfavorable conditions will be with us all the way to October 23rd.

How much faith do you really put into those shear forecasts especially 2 weeks out!?!

Though I will say it's quite cool here even in S. FL. Hard to believe we can get impacted by anything the rest of the season buts its way too early to say this at this point.

Normally Gator I would agree that shear forecasts can be horrid. However, the GFS is showing the same pattern we are in now persisting into the extended range which of course has shear blasting all over the Gulf. IMO Fall has come early. It is crazy how the SE went from a really hot summer with a persistent ridge and quickly changed to a late November like pattern.

If something doesn't hit in the next 2 weeks, chances go down substantially, statistically speaking.

Although, even NW Florida has been hit by a hurricane in late November, so you never know. It is just rare.

Hurricane Kate

[Dean4Storms]

I just don't see it becoming much either with all the shear, at least for FL. It could crank up in the western Carib. but don't see how it survives all the shear and dry air once it moves north of 22N.

[HURAKAN]

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