Disturbance in the western Caribbean (Is invest 98L)

[Vortex]

I just hope it’s not as pathetic looking as Nicole when/if its near Cuba/Fl straits….Shear values would imply such a look by the GFS.

[HURAKAN]

12z map

[Brent]

Where's the 2pm TWO?

[cycloneye]

Where's the 2pm TWO?

The most late it has been release as far I know.

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL
STORM OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 255 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK
ISLAND AND ABOUT 620 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[LarryWx]

Those in FL wanting more action will like the Euro as of 144 hours. Looks way more interesting than the 0Z Euro.

[LarryWx]

The 216 12Z euro has the Bahama Mama hurricane back! Looks pretty strong.

[KWT]

It looks quite interesting at the moment, sure does look like there is some sort of circulation down there at the moment, its probably close to be Invest worthy though we will see what the NHC decides.

[HURAKAN]

vorticity has increased a lot in the last 24 hours

[KWT]

Yeah Hurakan I wouldn't be at all surprised if it gets invested soon.

The 12z ECM is pretty interesting...probably a weak hurricane in the Bahamas from the looks of that run.

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECM run ends with a strong system just north of the Bahamas.

[Vortex]

now this is getting interesting...those in SFL/Keys had better not completely let there guard down just yet...

[Shuriken]

Jesus....the whole SWCAR is starting to rotate now. 10%? More like 50% IMO....

[KWT]

now this is getting interesting...those in SFL/Keys had better not completely let there guard down just yet...

Yeah and even more so for the Bahamas given the systems tend to be moving more to the NE right now, for example like we are seeing with Otto.

[Vortex]

ECM was quite a bit further east the other day....trends are interesting and if the flow is more sw than wsw as indicated by some of the guidance there would be less of impact shearwise at the core...Typical for october storms...

[SouthDadeFish]

Still over 200 hours out. Track isn't important right now. What is important is models supporting development. Although they appear to show nothing too organized until four or five days from now.

[KWT]

Yeah its still a while out and the models aren't really in great agreement about how this one will evolve so whilst we've gotta keep an eye on it, esp the further south you are in Florida, its still way too early to get too interested in it...for now!

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[Vortex]

slowly getting there...

[AJC3]

In the interest of full disclosure for the Florida peeps, throughout the medium/extended range, both the ECM and GFS continue to show mid to upper level westerlies over the GOMEX and FL - 250 MB westerlies are progged to be at least 40-50kt over the keys/straits, and they increase to at least 60-80kt between 25N and 30N.

You can't just look at the surface progs and declare some sort of threat without looking at the mid and upper levels to see that threat is minimized by horrid u/l conditions. For a serious Florida threat to materialize, you would need a change in the mid/upper pattern that would cause the 500MB-250MB to weaken and back more to southerly - i.e. significant upstream amplification or blocking. For instance, the ECM solution of a mid level cutoff low digging into the deep south/NE GOMEX from days 5-9 would need to occur about 10 degrees or so farther west.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm skeptical if anything will even develop for now. And if it does, most likely will get its head ripped off as it approaches Cuba.