Disturbance in the western Caribbean (Is invest 98L)

[Vortex]

That's a vigorous circulation developing around 12/78 this evening..Once convection fires over the center this may ramp up pretty quickly considering the favorable UL conditions and warm SST's...

[Vortex]

the circulation shows up very well on the RGB...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rgb-l.jpg

[Vortex]

I was looking at some climatology and roughly 90% of every storm that formed S of 15N and west of 77W between Oct 1st-10th had an impact on western cuba/sfl or within about 60 miles of the above mentioned location....

[HURAKAN]

Loop - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... mtccosir22



can't miss the circulation

[HURAKAN]

strongest vorticity co-relates with circulation

[Vortex]

as well defined as the circulation is becoming and with 6-7 days over water with favorable environmental conditions while S of cuba(minus any land interaction with honduras) this has significant potential...

[gatorcane]

as well defined as the circulation is becoming and with 6-7 days over water with favorable environmental conditions while S of cuba(minus any land interaction with honduras) this has significant potential...

Definitely has potential. I think the euro may have a better handle in the movement as the gfs is trying to eject this out of the Caribbean much too quickly, especially if you look at the 12z. As for the long-range shear forecasts, well we know how accurate they can be! Lol. Remember it is a la Nina year and it's still early October.

I think many have packed their bags due to a cooler and drier airmass that has set in over the eastern conus. Things could be much different 10 days to 14 days from now. If I were in florida (especially southern Florida) I would not be packing my bags just yet.

[HURAKAN]

Reminds me a little of Paloma in 2008

[Vortex]

Major Hurricane Paloma approaching cuba in November...


Radar:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Palom ... 8_cmw2.gif

[Vortex]

Not implying this will be a mitch of any sorts but mitch formed over the exact same area where we find a well defined circulation this evening...



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Mitch



Hurricane mitch first advisory almost spot on as to where we have a
circulation this evening.




Hurricane Mitch

ADV DATE/TIME LAT LON WIND PRES STATUS
___ _________ ___ ___ ____ ____ ______
1 10/22/03Z 12.8N 77.9W 35MPH 1001 T.D. 13

[MGC]

Quite of bit of spin just north of Panama....chances should increase at 2am. Would not be surprised if this developes in a couple of days......MGC

[Sanibel]

Is it down by Panama or up by the west Caribbean convection?

[LarryWx]

The 0Z gfs put me to sleep due to it being so boring. Zzzzzz. Good night, folks.

[Florida1118]

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[dwsqos2]

Yeah, the 0Z Euro and 0Z Canadian are fairly good cures for insomnia as well.

[GCANE]

Looking at MIMIC-TPW, its seems Otto is advecting some of the moisture out of the SW Carib.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

This could be limiting LL convergence from developing for maybe the next 24 hours or so until Otto moves farther away and weakens.

There now seems to be two PV anomolies, one at 850mb and another at 500mb.

The 500mb PV could be providing resistance to parcel ascent and maybe that is why convection has throttled back some.

I think once Otto clears out the 850mb vorticity should restrengthen and convection refire then.

Overall, shear is favorable east of 85W.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Vortex]

6z Nam strong with hurricane over NW carribean


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

Here is a query of all storms in October within 100NM of 15.00N and 80.00W.

[SouthFloridawx]

NAM shows Trough pulling out and cut-off low forming and heading into the Mid-Western States.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F08%2F2010+06UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&fcast=Loop+All