ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Convection is real impressive right now but depends on exactly where the LLC is...but even then I'd bet this is at 55-60kts even if the LLC is on the western edge like Wxman57 said.

[abajan]

... Anyway, I was sure I had posted these links earlier today and I'm sure Gusty will tell me to use the USA / Caribbean page for this but anyway, two links one of photos and one video of Dennery in Saint Lucia, which was under 5 feet of water yesterday.

http://denneryvibe.net/flood1.html
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php ... 4663450068

You meant cycloneye, right?
Flooding in Dennery was certainly severe. Actually, judging from various reports, practically every island in the chain from Puerto Rico southward was seriously affected by flooding from this system. With that in mind, it will be interesting to see if the name “Otto” will be retired because a significant amount (if not most) of the damage was done before it became named.

[cycloneye]

... Anyway, I was sure I had posted these links earlier today and I'm sure Gusty will tell me to use the USA / Caribbean page for this but anyway, two links one of photos and one video of Dennery in Saint Lucia, which was under 5 feet of water yesterday.

http://denneryvibe.net/flood1.html
http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php ... 4663450068

You meant cycloneye, right?
Flooding in Dennery was certainly severe. Actually, judging from various reports, practically every island in the chain from Puerto Rico southward was seriously affected by flooding from this system. With that in mind, it will be interesting to see if the name “Otto” will be retired because a significant amount (if not most) of the damage was done before it became named.

Yeah,I think he meant me. Anyway, it will be very interesting to see if Otto is retired after all of has occured in the Eastern Caribbean islands, and is not over yet in Puerto Rico.

[HURAKAN]

Should be a hurricane later today

[plasticup]

The SHIPS RI Index is interesting...

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

[HURAKAN]

AL, 17, 2010100812, , BEST, 0, 254N, 646W, 60, 986,

no change

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like a hurricane to me. I wish they would send recon in there...

[knotimpaired]

What are the chances that Otto bumps Africa and comes back to us here in the tropics?

[HURAKAN]

What are the chances that Otto bumps Africa and comes back to us here in the tropics?

0% ... Otto will become part of the westerlies and move towards Europe

[HURAKAN]

I think it will be a hurricane at 11 am

[HURAKAN]

now we're talking!

[Ad Novoxium]

Just to ask, what was the most intense hurricane to develop in the Atlantic with subtropical origins? I know Carrie in 1972 was a Category 2.

[plasticup]

What are the chances that Otto bumps Africa and comes back to us here in the tropics?

0% ... Otto will become part of the westerlies and move towards Europe

At 144 hours, CMC shows Otto heading south by Madeira.

[TheBurn]

[Aquawind]

Otto looks pretty healthy this morning. Hurricane today would be no surprise.

[KWT]

Looks like a hurricane to me or very close indeed right now, still got a comma look to it on the Microwave which it'll probably never totally lose...seems to be a trademark of these sorts of systems.

[Hurricanehink]

Just to ask, what was the most intense hurricane to develop in the Atlantic with subtropical origins? I know Carrie in 1972 was a Category 2.

The 1972 storm was Betty, by the way, but you're correct on its strength. Its peak was 90 kt, and a handful of others that were initially subtropical reached that intensity. The highest on record were Doris in 1975 and Florence 94, which both reached 95 kt. The [http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/mwr_pdf/1975.pdf Monthly Weather Review] from 1975 says that storms of subtropical origin don't usually intensify above 100 kt or below 960 mbar, which they say is due to them developing in a cooler and drier area, and because they usually form at a higher latitude than purely tropical systems.

[HURAKAN]

eye trying to come out

[HURAKAN]

08/1145 UTC 25.6N 64.5W T4.0/4.0 OTTO -- Atlantic


65 knots