TAFB has a surface low in 72 hours and it's stationary.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html
HPC has this low moving from the SW Caribbean skimming over the coast of Honduras/Nicaragua into the NW Caribbean in 7 days. Looks like this low will be down in the Caribbean at least 10 days. If upper level winds are favorable we could see a big hurricane because the prediction is for this low to mostly stay over warm water instead of hugging the coast.
). Of course, the NAM is a pretty poor tropical model that is quite often too aggressive with development. So, I take it with a grain of salt when it is an outlier model showing strong development. Also, if it doesn't develop something, I take it as a strong sign that something won't develop.
