ATL: PAULA - Models

[SouthDadeFish]

Will be interesting to see if the GFS jumps on board on the next run.

[Vortex]

H84 continues to strengthen over the NW carribean...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[SouthDadeFish]

A slow moving hurricane over the Carib waters = large potential. The potential for this storm is what makes it intriguing. But thankfully it looks like it will run into the great wall of shear to its north.

[Vortex]

00Z NAM loop...strongest run yet and with favorable enviromental conditions over the NW carribean and the 2nd peak of the season approaching it shouldn't suprise anyone if it verified....



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

H84 continues to strengthen over the NW carribean...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

That's a major hurricane there. Good thing it's just the nam.

[SouthDadeFish]

NAM develops this by 36 hours. That's not that far away.

[gatorcane]

A slow moving hurricane over the Carib waters = large potential. The potential for this storm is what makes it intriguing. But thankfully it looks like it will run into the great wall of shear to its north.

Well yeah but how much faith are you putting into the shear forecasts from the models in the long-range?

[SouthDadeFish]

By the end of the 00Z run at 84 hours it shows very hostile 200mb winds just to the north of the cyclone. If the NAM could go out farther, it would show weakening shortly after 84 hours.

[Vortex]

The current and forecasted synoptics over the western carribean and US also look right on...Climatology over the last 125+ years would also align very well with this run when comparing past storms that had similar orgins between October 10th-20th...

[gatorcane]

By the end of the 00Z run at 84 hours it shows very hostile 200mb winds just to the north of the cyclone. If the NAM could go out farther, it would show weakening shortly after 84 hours.

What's interesting is that the upper-level winds are more from the sw across the se gom, western Cuba, and southern florida than what I have seen in previous runs. This would not be enough to induce major weakening

[SouthDadeFish]

I have little reason to believe there wont be a strong belt of shear in five days, as the models unanimously predict it. Unless the pattern changes by then I'm not worrying too much, although that doesn't mean I wont keep an eye on it.

[SouthDadeFish]

By the end of the 00Z run at 84 hours it shows very hostile 200mb winds just to the north of the cyclone. If the NAM could go out farther, it would show weakening shortly after 84 hours.

What's interesting is that the upper-level winds are more from the sw across the se gom, western Cuba, and southern florida than what I have seen in previous runs. This would not be enough to induce major weakening

True, but look at the shear just north of Cuba. Coming straight from the west and much stronger. That would not be too enjoyable for any tropical cyclone.

[HURRICANELONNY]

H78 stronger..with likely a hurricane over the NW carribean and strengthening...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

I know it's the nam but wow

Hard to believe we won't get at least a tropical storm out if this.
I think the NAM did the same thing with Nicole. Doesn't look at shear to well.
Notice cutoff low diving into the southern plains.

[Vortex]

00Z NAM 500mb loop...Notice cut-off low over OK at H84..Could play a significant role down the road....Very impressive presentation of the storm on this run...

500 MB loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

I would like to see first GFDL,HWRF,GFS,CMC,NOGAPS,UKMET and ECMWF get bullish on this, to then jump to the development bandwagon.

[SouthDadeFish]

I would like to see first GFDL,HWRF,GFS,CMC,NOGAPS,UKMET and ECMWF get bullish on this, to then jump to the development bandwagon.

I have a feeling you'll be seeing that shortly

[Vortex]

The trend this run with the NAM is a more SW/SSW flow at the 200mb level which is significant as the core would not be severly impacted as it would be heading NNE/NE...If that upper low is around 90W or so when the cyclone is in the vicinity of western Cuba the flow would be more southerly and that would be a problem for southern fl/bahamas...


*Even if we don't look at the NAM tropically speaking and just look at the synoptics implied late in the period at the 200mb level this may be significant ...NAM does an excellent job most of the time in handling synoptics...

[Vortex]

For those that may remember not so long ago the NAM was initially the first model to pick up on hermine...This is by no means my go to model for the tropics but I think it does a very good job with the synoptics and every now and then hits a home run...

[SouthDadeFish]

Thing is, IF the NAM verifies with the time frame of a tropical cyclone forming, those synoptics are only three days away, meaning the chances of it verifying are better than what was speculated three or four days ago.

All this over an invest designated to have a 20% chance to develop in the next 48 hours

[Typhoon_Willie]

We shall see what happens shortly then. This may prove interesting to watch. What would make it real interesting is when the other models start to do a similar scenario.