WPAC: INVEST 99W

[StormingB81]

Located at 8N 149E

This is East of Guam. This could be the one that models were picking up on. I guess we shall see.

[supercane]

This is also ITOP 30. Not looking like much now.

ASCAT around the vicinity (not shown) just shows SE trades.

[supercane]

000
FXPQ60 PGUM 090723
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
5 PM CHST SAT OCT 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS WITH
MOST CONCENTRATED SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MARIANA ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MARIANAS. EXPECTING TO HAVE
THE WEATHER EAST TO MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS BY MIDNIGHT AND PLACE THE
ISLANDS IN A WET WEATHER REGIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SAIPAN AND
TINIAN HAD FEWER SHOWERS AND CLEARER SKIES THAN ROTA AND GUAM. EVEN
THO... SHOWERS WERE IN THE VICINITY...AND DETERIORATING WEATHER IS
STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN AGREEMENT...INDICATING AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST OF THE MARIANAS
WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPING EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES.
HOWEVER...NOT ALL MODELS AGREED WITH THE GFS THAT A WEAK CIRCULATION
WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS BY MID WEEK. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE CIRCULATION IS WELL WEST OF
THE MARIANAS AND WELL NORTHWEST OF YAP AND PALAU. NOT MUCH IS
EXPECTED OUT OF THIS EXCEPT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. USED GFS FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE MARSHALLS WILL KEEP MAJURO AND KOSRAE
PLEASANT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE NEXT AREA
TO WATCH SITS JUST BEYOND THE DATELINE. MODEL REPRESENTATION OF THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW NIGHT IN MAJURO. POHNPEI SITS
ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN
PLAGUING WESTERN MICRONESIA. GFS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER POHNPEI AND THEN MOVING WEST. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER TO ISOLATED LATE TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.