ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

CIMSS also shows vorticity is very elongated N-S strangely enough. Doesn't really look like it on satellite.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 98, 2010100918, , BEST, 0, 129N, 801W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Is moving west at 265 degrees. That means is going towards Nicaragua.

[SFLcane]

Just dont see how this would threaten florida as a signficant cyclone based on that shear zone across the NW caribbean sea. Conditions aloft look great though south of cuba.

[Aric Dunn]

What I dont get ... is why its not at around 80% because there is a closed circulation plenty of convection and with winds around 25 to 30kts

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty straight forward... I have seen worse looking Tropical depressions.. Looks pretty good to me..

[gatorcane]

Just dont see how this would threaten florida as a signficant cyclone based on that shear zone across the NW caribbean sea. Conditions aloft look great though south of cuba.

So you are trusting the shear forecasts in the long-range? I certainly do not. If it were November 9th, then maybe I would trust them more. It's only October 9th. Prime-time for hurricanes in the NW Caribbean and prime-time season climatologically speaking for South FL, Cuba, and Bahamas strikes from the south.

[Vortex]

30% Are you kidding me?


Sat pic 20 minutes ago.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[gatorcane]

30% Are you kidding me?


Sat pic 20 minutes ago.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Looks like a depression to me. Look at all of the moisture building to the east that is going to wrap into this. Lots of dry air to the North and West but so long as the circulation doesn't go inland, the NAM may just get this right with a forecast for a MAJOR hurricane Paula in the NW Caribbean in a few days.

Interests in Honduras, Cuba, and South Florida should closely monitor this situation.

[Vortex]

take a look at this loop



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[Aric Dunn]

There really is not reason this could not be a depression..

[Blown Away]

30% Are you kidding me?


Sat pic 20 minutes ago.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Looks like a depression to me. Look at all of the moisture building to the east that is going to wrap into this. Lots of dry air to the North and West but so long as the circulation doesn't go inland, the NAM may just get this right with a forecast for a MAJOR hurricane Paula in the NW Caribbean in a few days.

Interests in Honduras, Cuba, and South Florida should closely monitor this situation.

The models continue to have 98L hitting a wall near western Cuba and turning sharply ENE. Something to watch in SFL but for now we seem to be protected by that trough next week.

[gatorcane]

take a look at this loop



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

yes, very impressive. What's more impressive is how the waters in the SW and Western Caribbean can make something out of nothing in such a short period of time.

[gatorcane]

30% Are you kidding me?


Sat pic 20 minutes ago.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Looks like a depression to me. Look at all of the moisture building to the east that is going to wrap into this. Lots of dry air to the North and West but so long as the circulation doesn't go inland, the NAM may just get this right with a forecast for a MAJOR hurricane Paula in the NW Caribbean in a few days.

Interests in Honduras, Cuba, and South Florida should closely monitor this situation.

The models continue to have 98L hitting a wall near western Cuba and turning sharply ENE. Something to watch in SFL but for now we seem to be protected by that trough next week.

I see that but this is all in the long-range still and we by no means have model consensus on this. Any time you have a system down there this time of year, we must watch it. Won't take much for it to take a NE vector instead of ENE.

[HURAKAN]

very impressive

[cyclonic chronic]

looks like a depression to me. i think they're (NHC) waiting for persistance because convection has been up and down the last few days. is recon scheduled anytime soon, like tommrow? lol. the biggest threat, if it becomes a depr., looks like cuba. tho maybe it'll stay down in the carib. for a while, then s. fl needs to watch. local mets saying the humidity and at least a chance of rain coming back by late week. if that is true then the air wont be as dry as it is now here in s.w. fl. as for the shear forecasts, thats a crap-shoot. at least it looks like we have something purely tropical to track.

[cycloneye]

TAFB 72 hour forecast.

[LarryWx]

The models continue to have 98L hitting a wall near western Cuba and turning sharply ENE. Something to watch in SFL but for now we seem to be protected by that trough next week.

Maybe that will occur. Then again, maybe the models will verify incorrectly. Consider climo.

If the TC is able to move up to near W. Cuba, then mid to late OCT history says that the U.S. (mainly S FL) has almost always been later threatened and has most often actually been hit. For TC's of mid to late OCT since 1851 that were moving anywhere from a N to E heading over the W 1/3 of Cuba, consider this:

U.S. Hits: 1865, 1870 (2), 1876, 1878, 1891, 1906, 1909, 1922, 1924, 1926, 1944, 1947, 1959, 1964, 1968, 1987, 1999

U.S. Misses: 1898 (2 missed by only 50 miles), 1913, 1991 (missed by only 30 miles), 1996

So, there have been 18 hits, or about one every 9 years, and only 5 misses with three of the misses being very close. So, only 2 of the 23 were far from a hit.

[Macrocane]

Maybe a special TWO will be issued today unless a disoganization trend begins.

[Vortex]

continues to organize fairly quickly this afternoon...The western carribean is notorius in October for quick spin-ups and powerful storms...

[Weatherfreak000]

The 2010 Hurricane season takes two steps closer towards a potentially hyperactive season and with the heat potential the way it is in that area....could we possibly get there before any R storm? I think so