ATL: PAULA - Models

[SFLcane]

12z canadian doesn't do much with it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010100912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[SFLcane]

Looks to stay south of sfl based on these current 12z runs but cuba might in for it if these intensifty/track forecast do pan out.

12z GFDL...

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest98l.2010100912/invest98l.2010100912_anim.html

[SouthDadeFish]

GFDL is quite interesting. If 98L shoots the channel, just a slight deviation north in that track would keep it over the Straights of Florida with no land interaction

Also, doesn't appear to weaken it at all at the end of the run. I guess if it has a well defined eye, it will be more resistant to the shear.

[srainhoutx]

12Z HWRF suggests a strengthening Hurricane near the Isle of Youth in about 100 hours.

[northjaxpro]

Well, if 98L shoots into the Yucatan channel, the greater the probabilities of South Florida and the Keys to get impacted by this tropical cyclone for sure.

If the cyclone turns northeast south of the coast of Cuba, then the greater impacts will be felt across the Cayman Islands, Cuba and the Northwestern and Central Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 091827
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC SAT OCT 9 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101009 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101009  1800   101010  0600   101010  1800   101011  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.9N  80.1W   12.7N  80.9W   12.8N  82.0W   12.8N  82.9W
BAMD    12.9N  80.1W   13.2N  81.0W   13.7N  81.8W   14.2N  82.7W
BAMM    12.9N  80.1W   13.2N  80.9W   13.7N  81.9W   14.2N  83.0W
LBAR    12.9N  80.1W   13.5N  81.0W   14.8N  81.9W   16.3N  82.7W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          33KTS          40KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          33KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101011  1800   101012  1800   101013  1800   101014  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.6N  84.2W   12.6N  87.1W   12.1N  90.8W   10.2N  95.4W
BAMD    14.7N  84.0W   16.3N  87.6W   18.4N  90.6W   19.3N  92.0W
BAMM    14.7N  84.2W   15.9N  87.5W   16.4N  90.7W   15.2N  93.5W
LBAR    18.0N  83.2W   21.7N  83.0W   26.3N  79.1W   30.0N  66.0W
SHIP        48KTS          60KTS          59KTS          48KTS
DSHP        32KTS          31KTS          27KTS          28KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.9N LONCUR =  80.1W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  13.0N LONM12 =  79.2W DIRM12 = 247DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  13.2N LONM24 =  78.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

Who wants to answer this 2 part question? Why the Bams track towards Central America, while the other models go NW towards Cuba? Why the differences?

[Typhoon_Willie]

Maybe invest98l has a split personality he he. Or maybe it cannot make up it's mind. North I go into a good environment with warm sea surface temps or west and get shredded by land. North... West...North. What is a system to do?

[KWT]

Remember the BAMS at this time of year will struggle due to the trough digging that occurs at this time of year and the quick changes that occur in any given pattern.

[dixiebreeze]

Who wants to answer this 2 part question? Why the Bams track towards Central America, while the other models go NW towards Cuba? Why the differences?

Maybe because the bamms are good on long runners, but not so adept at shorter distance home growns?

[ronjon]

12z Euro much slower and drifting more northward toward SW FL at the end of its run.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html

[KWT]

I wouldn't trust the BAM's fullstop this time of year simply because troughs become so strong during the latter half of Autumn they will have the strength to lift things out even this far south with relative ease and the BAM's don't tend to handle progressive patterns at all well because they aren't designed to.

12z ECM takes this westwards then NW, possibly overland briefly, then does a cyclonic loop before lifting out as a weakening probably sheared system, probably not a bad solution if it gets left behind in weak currents...

[SouthDadeFish]

The BAM suite is very simply built which is why it is able to run so quickly. It takes in the current steering current at various layers of the atmosphere, shallow, medium, and deep, and factors in the Beta effect of the storm's circulation. Together it creates a quick forecast, which can be a valuable tool. In a very dynamic environment such as this, they will struggle.

[cycloneye]

Updated 18z models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 092103
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2103 UTC SAT OCT 9 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101009 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101009  1800   101010  0600   101010  1800   101011  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  80.8W   13.6N  81.6W   13.8N  82.6W   14.1N  83.5W
BAMD    13.5N  80.8W   14.1N  81.6W   14.7N  82.3W   15.4N  83.1W
BAMM    13.5N  80.8W   13.8N  81.5W   14.3N  82.4W   14.9N  83.4W
LBAR    13.5N  80.8W   14.8N  81.6W   16.6N  82.2W   18.6N  82.3W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          35KTS          35KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101011  1800   101012  1800   101013  1800   101014  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.4N  84.6W   15.4N  87.3W   15.9N  90.6W   14.6N  94.2W
BAMD    16.2N  84.2W   18.2N  87.3W   20.7N  89.3W   22.9N  87.7W
BAMM    15.5N  84.6W   16.9N  87.7W   17.9N  90.5W   17.2N  92.8W
LBAR    20.8N  81.6W   24.8N  77.8W   28.6N  69.6W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        50KTS          61KTS          58KTS          47KTS
DSHP        31KTS          40KTS          28KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  80.8W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR =  10KT
LATM12 =  12.9N LONM12 =  79.1W DIRM12 = 247DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  13.2N LONM24 =  78.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[SouthDadeFish]

Doesn't the SHIPS run off the BAMM input? That's not very helpful in this case....

[SFLcane]

18z HWRF doesn't really do much of anything with 98L...

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/invest98l.2010100918/invest98l.2010100918_anim.html

Inner nest zoom.. http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf/invest98l.2010100918/zoom_invest98l.2010100918_anim.html

[SouthDadeFish]

It's weird how now when 98L looks better than even the models are less aggressive...

[SFLcane]

18z GFDL brings a pretty strong cyclone towards cuba and just misses keys/sfl to the south.

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models Suite

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 100057
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0057 UTC SUN OCT 10 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101010 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101010  0000   101010  1200   101011  0000   101011  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.5N  81.2W   13.5N  82.3W   13.6N  83.4W   13.6N  84.6W
BAMD    13.5N  81.2W   14.0N  82.4W   14.5N  83.6W   14.9N  84.9W
BAMM    13.5N  81.2W   13.9N  82.3W   14.3N  83.4W   14.7N  84.7W
LBAR    13.5N  81.2W   14.2N  82.1W   15.6N  83.1W   17.3N  83.8W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          39KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          28KTS          27KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101012  0000   101013  0000   101014  0000   101015  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.8N  85.9W   14.1N  88.7W   13.6N  91.9W   12.3N  95.9W
BAMD    15.4N  86.5W   16.8N  90.2W   18.0N  93.5W   19.1N  96.1W
BAMM    15.1N  86.1W   16.0N  88.9W   15.8N  91.6W   15.0N  94.5W
LBAR    18.8N  84.0W   22.2N  83.2W   27.4N  77.2W   31.3N  61.3W
SHIP        46KTS          53KTS          47KTS          32KTS
DSHP        27KTS          31KTS          27KTS          22KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.5N LONCUR =  81.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  12.7N LONM12 =  80.1W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 =   9KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  78.4W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   35NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$


[cycloneye]

Apart from the black line of extrapolation motion,check the gray line,which is TVCN, that NHC uses as a guidance for future tracks of Tropical Cyclones.