2010 WPAC Season

[Typhoon10]

So, do we feel the 2010 WPAC season is now over. Whats everyones assumptions and how would be summarise 2010 for us?

[RobWESTPACWX]

Quite.. The month of september was active but overall the season was much less than we originally anticipated. On that note I don't think it is over just yet. One more storm possible probably around the PI before November. My thoughts.

[Aslkahuna]

So far, no super typhoons have formed. This is the latest the WPAC has gone without a super typhoon since 1988. During that year, there wasn't a super typhoon until Nelson became one on October 4th.

Other years that had their first super typhoon beyond this point:

1985: Dot (October 16th)
1984: Vanessa (October 25th)
1978: Rita (October 22nd)
1974: No super typhoons formed, although Gloria may have possibly reached super typhoon intensity prior to striking the Philippines in mid-November.

Two of those storms, Vanessa and Rita were whoppers to boot with 879 mb and 878 mb respectively. The 1974 season was a rough one in the Philippines and October and November were especially rough-the following storms all hit northern Luzon between October 6th and November 28th- Bess, Carmen, Della, Elaine (a monster in size), Gloria, and Irma. Tropical Storm Faye hit southern Luzon on Halloween night in 1974. The 1977 season was the slowest until 1997 and yet had decent storms all of the way into December. October is WAY too early to call a demise in WPAC.

Steve

[StormingB81]

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml


NOGAPS is showing something possible in the begining stages between Guam and Yap of brewing in about a weeks time. Time will tell though

[StormingB81]

Could be an interesting next couple of weeks

FROM ITOP:

Current Conditions/Review of Yesterday's Forecast:
The forecast scenario of the ITOP Center remains on track with
little evidence unfolding to suggest any significant development
in next 2 to 3 days.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAY 1 (Tomorrow) Update:
In 24 hours at 05/12Z, no suspect areas.

There appears little potential for significant development due
to the dominance of the upper level pattern. ITOP27 is captured
by most models in the 850mb vorticity fields, represented as a
wave moving west.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAY 2 (Day after tomorrow) Forecast:
In 48 hours at 06/12Z: No suspect areas. ITOP27 forecast to
continue as a wave on about 135E. Upper low is being eroded by
the marked upper trough moving through mid-latitudes.



model.ECMWF_05deg_SmallDomain.201010041200.048_Isotach-200-strea
m.png

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Longterm Outlook:
Latest ECMWF Ensembles continue to pick up on a system tracking
westwards to be near 13N 143E on 09/00Z (9 members - up from 5
yesterday) and tracking to the Philippines by 16/00Z.


model.NPS_ECTRACKS.201010040000.000_Storm_04_07_members.png


The ECMWF 10-day deterministic forecast also picks up a
vorticity center on 08/12Z near 11N 143E, develops it, and
places it near 15N 130E at 14/12Z (Day 10 forecast). The
deterministic model has slowed its track a little from
yesterday, giving a little more development time for the system.


This appears to be the best prospect for development in the next
10 days. See preliminary track for ITOP28.

report.forecast.201010042128.graphic.gif


The upper level pattern takes on a more favorable appearance
along 10-15N at this time, with tropospheric shear term
decreasing significantly.

Loop

[somethingfunny]

This graphic is from 1998, one of the slowest WPAC seasons on record and a fairly good analog to this year's conditions globally:



The only storms worth noting, Zeb and Babs, both struck the Philippines at peak intensity in mid-late October.

[StormingB81]

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml


Could the WPAC wake up again? They are talking about it in the nex tweek saying something could pop up.

[AussieMark]

This graphic is from 1998, one of the slowest WPAC seasons on record and a fairly good analog to this year's conditions globally:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/e ... cabb59.png

The only storms worth noting, Zeb and Babs, both struck the Philippines at peak intensity in mid-late October.

Both struck only a week apart

Zeb on October 14
Babs on October 21

[AussieMark]

So far, no super typhoons have formed. This is the latest the WPAC has gone without a super typhoon since 1988. During that year, there wasn't a super typhoon until Nelson became one on October 4th.

Other years that had their first super typhoon beyond this point:

1985: Dot (October 16th)
1984: Vanessa (October 25th)
1978: Rita (October 22nd)
1974: No super typhoons formed, although Gloria may have possibly reached super typhoon intensity prior to striking the Philippines in mid-November.

Two of those storms, Vanessa and Rita were whoppers to boot with 879 mb and 878 mb respectively. The 1974 season was a rough one in the Philippines and October and November were especially rough-the following storms all hit northern Luzon between October 6th and November 28th- Bess, Carmen, Della, Elaine (a monster in size), Gloria, and Irma. Tropical Storm Faye hit southern Luzon on Halloween night in 1974. The 1977 season was the slowest until 1997 and yet had decent storms all of the way into December. October is WAY too early to call a demise in WPAC.

Steve

do you mean was the slowest until 1997 for Philippine landfalls or the basin in raw numbers?

1997 was a fairly active season overall

33 Tropical Storms
21 Typhoons
11 Super Typhoons

[StormingB81]

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml

This must be the system people are talking about as a possible developer nex tweek. Looks like from Japan to PI may have to keep an eye on this see what happends.

and from ITOP:

The ECMWF 10-day deterministic forecast continues to pick up a
vorticity wave-like feature which develops cyclonic
characteristics at Day 4 (11/12Z) near 13N 140E, and tracks it
near 16N 134E at 14/12Z (Day 7 forecast) and 22N 128E at 17/12Z
(Day 10). The deterministic model track has been reasonbly
consistent over the last three days, increasing the confidence
in the forecast.

report.forecast.201010072107.graphic.gif

[Aslkahuna]

do you mean was the slowest until 1997 for Philippine landfalls or the basin in raw numbers?

1997 was a fairly active season overall

33 Tropical Storms
21 Typhoons
11 Super Typhoons[/quote]

My bad it was 1998 that was the slow season. 1977 had 19 named/11 typhoons (5 majors including 1 Super) and 2 TD's. 1998 had 18 named/9 typhoons and 9 TDs

Steve

[StormingB81]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

This is interesting...

[dexterlabio]

Oct 8 00UTC ECMWF model runs. Not so sure about this but I think there's a latest run from ECMWF, and it shows more of a wave-like feature or trough rather than a cyclonic formation.

[dexterlabio]

This graphic is from 1998, one of the slowest WPAC seasons on record and a fairly good analog to this year's conditions globally:



The only storms worth noting, Zeb and Babs, both struck the Philippines at peak intensity in mid-late October.

Were Zeb and Babs supertyphoons when they struck the Philippines? I kinda remember Babs (Loleng) in 1998, if I'm not mistaken the city capital experienced strong winds then even though it made landfall in the province north of Manila, but the main problem would be severe flooding. I don't know much about Zeb (Iliang), maybe it made landfall far in the north.

[HurricaneBill]

Were Zeb and Babs supertyphoons when they struck the Philippines? I kinda remember Babs (Loleng) in 1998, if I'm not mistaken the city capital experienced strong winds then even though it made landfall in the province north of Manila, but the main problem would be severe flooding. I don't know much about Zeb (Iliang), maybe it made landfall far in the north.

Zeb made landfall at 155KT(1-min winds)!



Babs made landfall at 135KT(1-min winds)

[dexterlabio]

Zeb made landfall at 155KT(1-min winds)!



Babs made landfall at 135KT(1-min winds)

Thank you for the info. Woah, I think that is Zeb on the satpic. That is one severe supertyphoon making landfall, and maybe because it struck the northern part of Luzon that's why I've almost forgotten Zeb.

[StormingB81]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0101000!!/

WOW!!! According to this we maybe in for an interesting 10 days ot so! But we know things can change and it is just a forecast model

[dexterlabio]

Long range forecast keeps on changing, well I won't blame the uncertainty on anyone for there are several possibilities that could happen within a week. I think this will be my last check on the models. I'm just gonna wait, then.

[StormingB81]

WOW! 4 Invest's out there....Getting very busy...something sure must have to develop out of these.

[StormingB81]

looks like we may have an active and busy week

Longterm Outlook:
Latest ECMWF Ensembles continue to pick up on three systems. One
with 21 members tracks west into the South China Sea with
limited development (ITOP28).

model.NPS_ECTRACKS.201010110000.000_Storm_02.png



model.NPS_ECTRACKS.201010110000.000_Storm_02_wind_speed.png


The main system of interest has been tracking consistently for
the past week and now has 49 members (46 yesterday), starting
from near Guam. There is evidence of an incipient circulation in
the Guam area (ITOP30).

model.NPS_ECTRACKS.201010110000.000_Storm_01.png


Probability of gales: Increasing probability trend for
significant winds.

model.NPS_ECTRACKS.201010110000.000_Storm_01_wind_speed.png


The third system is forecast well east of Guam but is included
for consideration.


model.NPS_ECTRACKS.201010110000.000_Storm_05.png

Summary:
Several scenarios exist for the next five days in respect of the
operational models. The EC suggests that ITOP30 with absorb
ITOP29 as it passes to its north. The GFS and NOGAPS tend to
merge the developing ITOP30 with a circulation east of the
Philippines from 14 October to 16 October. UK simply develops a
low at 18N 124E on 16 October.

EC scenario is preferred. It accords with the Ensemble and is
consistent with existing physical evidence.



The upper level pattern prognosis continues to show a favorable
shear environment for development.