ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Well it hasn't developed "fast" but does look to be slowly developing. I think the Jamaica flare-up is the linear trough 98L is connected to reacting to tropical flow being piled up behind it by the tropical airmass the front has compacted in the Caribbean. SST's should make this a done deal soon.

[HURAKAN]

The center is very easily to see

[srainhoutx]

I do have to wonder if Belize or the Yucatan may see 98L impacts. Seeing the slow development and rather slow movement almost bring back memories of Matthew. What is interesting is seeing the moisture finally beginning to lift N out of the Caribbean. I still think this has some chance at development, just not as fast as some may think.

[Sanibel]

It does look stationary, which should give the steering currents to its north time to change.

[cycloneye]

There are two sides in the discussions about 98L,the developing camp and the none developing camp, and that is very good it is happening to have diverse opinions without having heated exchanges. Keep it going peeps.

[Sanibel]

It almost looks like the system is sheared from the SE by the tropical easterlies.

[cycloneye]

Here is todays TCPOD and it looks like distint from the models,the squadron is very interested in the system. The first (Tentative) mission will be on Monday afternoon.

NOUS42 KNHC 101500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 10 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-131

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 11/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 11/1400Z
D. 14.5N 82.5W
E. 11/1730Z TO 11/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 12/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
C. 12/0200Z
D. 16.0N 83.5W
E. 12/0500Z TO 12/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[cycloneye]

TAFB Surface Analysis.

[jconsor]

Hi-res visible loops show a small circulation west of Jamaica near 17N 81W (on the western edge of the northernmost blob of convection). Low-level convergence is stronger near this circulation than off the Nicaragua coast where the main circulation is. This may be the first stage in the process of the elongated center reforming to the north like all global models have been showing.

[HURAKAN]

the circulation to the south is the strongest at the moment

[cycloneye]

The latest at 16:45z.

[Macrocane]

This is a very hard system to forecast, it has no model support but it sure looks good and I wonder why the models are not doing much with it, conditions are not that bad if it stays south of 18 north.

[HURAKAN]

Looking at the latest loops, the circulation is very well-defined

[Sanibel]

The center usually defaults to the northern circulation. Interesting to see which will win.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL STORM OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE
AZORES.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/PASCH

[srainhoutx]

ASCAT certainly suggests this is a TD now IMO.

[Macrocane]

Still 60%, if they're waiting for sustained convection I think we've seen enough of that, what does it lack to be a TD?

[Vortex]

1715Z continues to slowly improve...

[nick3232]

what are the chances it could get into wilma track and hit south florida more likely tropical cyclones formed in octuber take that track but what are the chances 98L could hit south florida?

[sunnyday]

What am I hearing? Could it be that the fat lady is singing===again?