ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[Florida1118]

Still looks like a TD. TD 5 looked worse and was elongated an loose.

[srainhoutx]

[SouthDadeFish]

It does appear that outflow has improved to the SE, a sign that shear has slightly let up.

[cycloneye]

Steve, that image shows that is possible a reformation more north as it continues elongated.

[Florida1118]

NWS Tampa-
...BUT MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM BEING PULLED NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/WEAKENING SURFACE COOL FRONT
DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS MOISTURE GETS PUSHED SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NWS Miami-
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS SOUTH
FLORIDA.

NWS Key West-
WE NOTE A 24-HOUR POLEWARD TREND IN
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ACTUALLY NOT FAR FROM THE KEYS AT PRESENT...EVEN
THOUGH SUCH AN AIR MASS HAS BEEN DECIDEDLY ABSENT IN THE KEYS DURING
THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF OCTOBER. THE LAST 3-4 CYCLES OF OUTPUT FROM
SEVERAL MACHINE MODELS SUGGEST THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF MOISTURE
AND LIFT RETURNING TO THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT PLAINS DIGS
EQUATORWARD AND DRAWS HIGH THETA-E AIR NORTHWARD OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

[alienstorm]

Will be going onshore latter this evening from the looks of thing moving WNW

[Ptarmigan]

Think it should be a TD as early as tonight.

[DanKellFla]

What happened to the NCH 5:00 PM update?

[SouthDadeFish]

What happened to the NCH 5:00 PM update?

That's only if we have a classified depression or greater. They issue the outlooks at 2 am, 8 am, 2 pm, and 8pm for waves/invests.

[Sanibel]

Quicker organization but headed 300* and should go into Nicaragua/Honduras.

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[chaser1]

Have to beleive that a newly formed center must be near reflecting to the surface, as land interaction with Honduras seems nearly imminent. If so, I could see a scenario where the northern extension of this quasi N/S trough attempts to reform near or under the other mid level vorticity attempting to form west of Jaimaca. At this latitude and at the current time, it would be a test of time, given the existing shear in place.

[supercane]

Latest microwave:

[latitude_20]

Latest GFS seems to be climbing on board, but I seriously wonder how it can survive with the NW caribbean awash in dry air.

[sunnyday]

Unless a forecast says "extreme south Florida," which is taken to be the Keys, and just says S Fl, how do we know how far up the coast the forecaster means? Sometimes, they don't even say SE or SW.

[cycloneye]

Down to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
REMAIN DISORGANIZED. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEMS MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[wxman57]

Surface obs suggest the circulation center east of Nicaragua has lifted above the surface. Good spin aloft, but the obs don't support an LLC near that visible rotation. It could be there's an LLC well east of that spin near the coast of Nicaragua, but no convection there. The disturbance was a lot better organized 24 hrs ago. Don't see any sign of an LLC farther north (west of Jamaica).

[sunnyday]

I knew I heard the fat lady singing. She gets louder by the moment.

[blp]

I think the southern half going inland might be the best thing that can happen for its chances to develop. With the southern half weakening over land it will allow the northern half the ability to take over and tighten up the lower vorticity which has been very broad. I have been more cautious this year than normal about jumping on development. It is quite interesting to see how this year is playing out in the NW Caribbean. Despite very favorable SST's, lower than normal pressures, and a full fledged La Nina we have seen much difficulty in systems trying to organize with many competing low pressure areas and lots of broad circulations. It goes to show how many things need to be right to get development.

[DanKellFla]

What happened to the NCH 5:00 PM update?

That's only if we have a classified depression or greater. They issue the outlooks at 2 am, 8 am, 2 pm, and 8pm for waves/invests.

Yeah.... Yeah... I knew that. I guess I am already jonesin' for some excitment.

[SFLcane]

Surface obs suggest the circulation center east of Nicaragua has lifted above the surface. Good spin aloft, but the obs don't support an LLC near that visible rotation. It could be there's an LLC well east of that spin near the coast of Nicaragua, but no convection there. The disturbance was a lot better organized 24 hrs ago. Don't see any sign of an LLC farther north (west of Jamaica).

The fact that both the GFDL/HWRF aren't doing much of anything with this is something to think about. Still feel the chance of this hitting FL as a strong cyclone are slim to none due to very strong westerly flow in the GOM not going anywere anytime soon.