ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

Models are doing really well when it comes to development. All the strong storms they showed that would develop did. When we believed that storms would develop more than models showed, they never did. Case in point, Gaston. The models showed no development with Gaston but it somehow managed to briefly become a tropical storm, but with the models remaining lackluster on development, it quickly died out.

So unless the models show some strong development with this system, we'll see no more than a disorganized TD, if that.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 98, 2010101100, , BEST, 0, 137N, 811W, 25, 1006, LO

[wxman57]

Take a look at the trace of vertical instability in the Caribbean for the season and you can see why systems have just not developed there. Instability is WAY DOWN below climo. That means the airmass is very stable across the Caribbean now.

[blp]

Thanks for the post. I remember another poster from Texas pointing this out a few weeks ago when we had the last system and they were dead on pointing this out as an unfavorable variable. This was a problem early in the season in the Atlantic and one of the main reasons why we had a late start and now it is happening in the Caribbean. Well I guess now we need to look at that variable as well when we try to predict activity.

Take a look at the trace of vertical instability in the Caribbean for the season and you can see why systems have just not developed there. Instability is WAY DOWN below climo. That means the airmass is very stable across the Caribbean now.

[blp]

Vorticity is deepening now.

[supercane]

Latest microwave:

[boca]

looks like 98L is getting sheared apart. Too much dry air down in the Caribbean.This might be deactivated tomorrow the way it looks tonight.

[LaBreeze]

I knew I heard the fat lady singing. She gets louder by the moment.

She's already left the stage and the building here in this part of the GOM.

[Sanibel]

Still black bursting. Probably SST-driven:

[blp]

Very impressive blowup going on right now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like a TD, if not Paula, to me with that blowup..

***JMHO ofcourse..

[dixiebreeze]

NOUS42 KNHC 101500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 10 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-131

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 11/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 11/1400Z
D. 14.5N 82.5W
E. 11/1730Z TO 11/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 12/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
C. 12/0200Z
D. 16.0N 83.5W
E. 12/0500Z TO 12/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

[dixiebreeze]

10/2345 UTC 13.9N 82.3W T1.5/2.0 98L -- Atlantic

[blp]

In the past five hours the system has become less elongated. Looking less like a trough.

00z


05z

[SouthFloridawx]

[45NWOrlando]

I would expect there to be a Special TWO in the next few hours raising the probability of formation to 50%60%, and if trends continue, 80%-90% at 8PM with an upgrade at 11AM, although knowing the NHC they might wait for morning visibles.

It wouldn't have been a "special" Tropical Weather Outlook. The next/new, scheduled one was issued no more than 3.7 hours after you posted.

[WeatherGuesser]

Once again, the fear and panic mongers seem to be crying wolf. How many times has that happened this season?


Oooooohhh, Ooooooh, it's gonna be a monster Cat 8 with 600 MPH winds a thousand miles wide and obliterate everything from Miami to Portland, Maine !!!!!!


Only to have it turn out to sea or die out completely. Yeah, there's been some heavy rains and some wind damage and casualties. Certainly those affected feel it was bad.

But if you were to believe that the 'predictions' on this board for this season would ever come true, there wouldn't be anything left along the entire eastern coastline.

[DanKellFla]

Still at 50

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110531
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES EAST OF
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEMS MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

[HURAKAN]

11/0545 UTC 14.2N 81.8W T2.0/2.0 98L -- Atlantic

back to 2.0 or 30 knots

[GCANE]

The cell fired at high rain-rate for about 1-1/2 hrs starting at 0715Z.

Rain-rain has since decreased to moderate.