ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[KWT]

Yeah 2.0 would normally be good enough to upgrade but as I said with recon heading in there they decide to just wait a few hours more to know exactly where this one is at.

[gatorcane]

Wonder what the cone is going to look like on this one.....?

[wxman57]

There's a low center on the coast of Honduras now, but it appears weaker than it was 2 days ago. I think this was a depression since at least Saturday morning.

[Category 5]

There's a low center on the coast of Honduras now, but it appears weaker than it was 2 days ago. I think this was a depression since at least Saturday morning.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/paula3.gif

I've been looking at that this morning. One has to wonder why they haven't flown a plane out there.

Well, we know this, it's more of a TC than Nicole.

[wxman57]

Wonder what the cone is going to look like on this one.....?

The cone is simply a reflection of the 66.7% 5-year error statistics, so it's the same size all the time this year. What it means is that 66.7% of the time, the center of the storm will track inside the cone based on errors over the last 5 years. At the 120hr point, the 66.7% error is a circle about 285nm (330 statute miles) radius. So if the track is within 330 miles of south Florida, it'll be in the cone.

By the way, I mentioned it before but don't think my post was seen - the cones drawn on the map above in S2K are incorrect. The 285nm circle should extend 285nm ahead of the last forecast point. It's not a straight line where the track ends, the cone is a series of error circles.

[Evil Jeremy]

Wonder what the cone is going to look like on this one.....?

So if the track is within 345 miles of south Florida, it'll be in the cone.

I think that gatorcane's question was what areas would be in the cone, and where it would be pointing, rather than the actual size of the cone itself. Do you think SFL will be in the cone, and if so, what part (the center, left, etc)?

[jlauderdal]

weak system, on the coast or over land, i wouldn't put my money on this horse

[gatorcane]

Wonder what the cone is going to look like on this one.....?

So if the track is within 345 miles of south Florida, it'll be in the cone.

I think that gatorcane's question was what areas would be in the cone, and where it would be pointing, rather than the actual size of the cone itself. Do you think SFL will be in the cone, and if so, what part (the center, left, etc)?

Yes Evil Jeremy, that was my question.

Thanks Wxman for the background info.

[Macrocane]

weak system, on the coast or over land, i wouldn't put my money on this horse

The point is that it is expected to be offshore later today and stay almost stationary for several days and that's why is important to watch this system for Central America, Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, Bahamas and Florida.

[Blown Away]

Wonder what the cone is going to look like on this one.....?

Looking at the 12z models, seems Central Cuba to Florida peninsula tip would be the likely track.

[HURAKAN]

close up

[KWT]

You only have to look at some past monsters that have developed in the NW Caribbean to know why this one needs watching, conditions for at least the next few days are going to be pretty good and thats all you need to get a strengthening hurricane...

[Category 5]

close up

Well, at least unlike Nicole, Recon will know where to look.

[cycloneye]

Mission for this morning/afternoon is a go as there are no remarks at this morning's TCPOD.

Go to 98L recon thread to follow the first mission.

[Category 5]

Not a bad structure.

[HURAKAN]

another good look

[wxman57]

The background cone info was for the benefit of those on the board who may not know what it represents. The corrected consensus model, something the NHC likes to use for guidance, puts the center near southern Andros Island in 5 days. This would put south Florida in the cone. However, there is tremendous model divergence so I'd guess that the NHC would chose a slower motion and keep it in the NW Caribbean until they're more confident where it's going.

[KWT]

It really does look like a depression, I agree with Wxman57 its been a depression for at least 24hrs IMO...

Recon probably will confirm we have a depression, this looks far better then several questionable depressions this season and even some storms such as Bonnie/Nicole.

[Blown Away]

The background cone info was for the benefit of those on the board who may not know what it represents. The corrected consensus model, something the NHC likes to use for guidance, puts the center near southern Andros Island in 5 days. This would put south Florida in the cone. However, there is tremendous model divergence so I'd guess that the NHC would chose a slower motion and keep it in the NW Caribbean until they're more confident where it's going.

Follow the TVCN consensus, right?

[abajan]

It really does look like a depression, I agree with Wxman57 its been a depression for at least 24hrs IMO...

Recon probably will confirm we have a depression, this looks far better then several questionable depressions this season and even some storms such as Bonnie/Nicole.

IMHO it looks like a tropical storm! If that is just a TD, it must surely be the best looking one I’ve ever seen:

http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/5821/storm2me.jpg

Edited to include link to image.