ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[KWT]

Could well be a TS though I'd have thought there are some decent obs nearby and the system is very close to land...still who knows the NE Quadrant may well find 30-35kts winds...

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
930 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

***** SPECIAL FEATURE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT UPDATED *****

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING N E OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO NEAR 19N78W. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF 83W FROM
14N-16N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-21N W OF THE TROUGH TO 86W AND
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEMS MOVES
W-NW TO NW AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

[wxman57]

It was a 'high chance" before. They forgot to update the percentage on that special statement.

[Vortex]

looking great on the vis this morning...continues to organize even with the center being over or just offshore honduras....The upper air environemnt has improved and steady strengthening once it moves into the Gulf of Honduras seems a good bet...

[Evil Jeremy]

It was a 'high chance" before. They forgot to update the percentage on that special statement.

805 TWD:

"CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEMS MOVES
W-NW TO NW AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. "

[KWT]

looking great on the vis this morning...continues to organize even with the center being over or just offshore honduras....The upper air environemnt has improved and steady strengthening once it moves into the Gulf of Honduras seems a good bet...

Yeah I agree and with the presentation as it pulls away from land in the next 12-24hrs I'd imagine we will have a strengthening storm. I see no reason why this won't be a hurricane and if its motion is slow enough a major is certainly a possiblity if only through the historical side of things and how many majors have formed in this part of the basin at this time of the year.

[gatorcane]

looking great on the vis this morning...continues to organize even with the center being over or just offshore honduras....The upper air environemnt has improved and steady strengthening once it moves into the Gulf of Honduras seems a good bet...

Yeah I agree and with the presentation as it pulls away from land in the next 12-24hrs I'd imagine we will have a strengthening storm. I see no reason why this won't be a hurricane and if its motion is slow enough a major is certainly a possiblity if only through the historical side of things and how many majors have formed in this part of the basin at this time of the year.

I agree a major hurricane in the NW Caribbean is not out of the question if it can stay over water.

[wxman57]

It was a 'high chance" before. They forgot to update the percentage on that special statement.

805 TWD:

"CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEMS MOVES
W-NW TO NW AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. "

That doesn't match what the TPC put out at 8am:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THIS SYSTEMS MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Evil Jeremy]

It was a 'high chance" before. They forgot to update the percentage on that special statement.

805 TWD:

"CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEMS MOVES
W-NW TO NW AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. "

That doesn't match what the TPC put out at 8am:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THIS SYSTEMS MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Exactly, which is why they had to update the TWD, to match the TWO.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
930 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2010

***** SPECIAL FEATURE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT UPDATED *****

[GCANE]

looking great on the vis this morning...continues to organize even with the center being over or just offshore honduras....The upper air environemnt has improved and steady strengthening once it moves into the Gulf of Honduras seems a good bet...

Yeah I agree and with the presentation as it pulls away from land in the next 12-24hrs I'd imagine we will have a strengthening storm. I see no reason why this won't be a hurricane and if its motion is slow enough a major is certainly a possiblity if only through the historical side of things and how many majors have formed in this part of the basin at this time of the year.

Overshooting tops continue to fire.

Usually they die off a couple hours after sunrise / DMAX when a system is marginal.

Cirrus outflow looks real good on the west half of the convection.


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 16&lon=-83

[Sanibel]

As Hurakan was hinting the Honduras center was always the center of this. The wave axis was kept going by other factors but the spin was past the point of no return.

It's over land right now but obviously well into development. Some systems take more of a hit from land than others so we'll see how it reacts to being over land. If Matthew was any indication it should have little affect.

Is this the one that finally lines-up for a Florida hit?

[Vortex]

notice the fanning of the cirrus on the W and NW side...this has the makings of a significant cyclone...

[HURAKAN]

Link - http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

I'll be surprised if RECON doesn't find TD 18 or TS Paula

[Tropics Guy]

Based on visible presentation, sure looks like it could already be a TD............

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

TG

[Ptarmigan]

It really does look like a depression, I agree with Wxman57 its been a depression for at least 24hrs IMO...

Recon probably will confirm we have a depression, this looks far better then several questionable depressions this season and even some storms such as Bonnie/Nicole.

It looks better than some tropical storms I have seen.

[Sanibel]

I can't see from appearance how this could be anything but a system about to curl up once it enters the west Caribbean above Honduras. I'll double down on it (a sucker bet in my mind).

[KWT]

Yeah without a doubt recon finds a system with this one, its just what strength its at, personally I suspect a 30kts TD for now but its got a good presentation to it and I wouldn't be surprised to see it strengthen at a decent clip once it gets away from Honduras.

[GCANE]

notice the fanning of the cirrus on the W and NW side...this has the makings of a significant cyclone...

The poleward outflow channel is doing a good job venting the west-side of the convection.

[HURAKAN]

Puerto Lempira (NE Honduras coast)

10 AM (14) Oct 11 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) WNW 9 rain

[KWT]

That on its own Hurakan is rather suggestive that we probably have a tropical cyclone out there right now.

Recon on its way so we'll know either way soon enough.